June 2016 C.E.T. Forecasts

[Roger J Smith]

CET Averages and Extremes

 

23.0 ... 3rd, 1947, warmest daily mean

22.4 ... average for last five days in June 1976

21.2 ... average for last nine days in June 1976

18.2 ... 1846 (warmest June)

18.0 ... 1676 (2nd warmest)

17.3 ... 1826 (3rd warmest)

17.1 ... 1822 (4th warmest)

17.0 ... 1976 (5th warmest)

 

15.1 ... CET 2014

14.7 ... average for 2001-2015

14.5 ... average for 1981-2010, 1986-2015, also for 1701-1800

14.3 ... average for all years 1659-2015, also 1801-1900

14.2 ... average for 1961-1990, also 1901-2000

14.1 ... average for 1971-2000, also 1659-1700

14.0 ... CET 2015

13.6 ... CET 2013

13.5 ... CET 2012

11.8 ... 1972, 1916, 1909 (tied 2nd coldest)

11.5 ... 1675 (coldest June)

7.3 ... 9th (1816) and 19th (1795) coldest daily means

__________________________________________________________________

Enter your forecasts in this thread by end of the day Tuesday, 31st of May, or with increasing time penalties before end of day Friday 3rd of June.

 

[Weather-history]

A stats quirk but I think the average for Junes ending in "6" is about 14.8

4 of the top 5 warmest Junes end in a "6"

[Weather26]

14.4C Please

[geoffw]

15.2 please 

[crucible72]

18 hours ago, Weather-history said:

A stats quirk but I think the average for Junes ending in "6" is about 14.8

4 of the top 5 warmest Junes end in a "6"

From 1966 onwards, Junes ending in a 6 have averaged a CET of 15.5

1966 15.4

1976 17.0 Warmest June of the last century 

1986 14.8

1996 14.4

2006 15.9 Warmest June of the last ten years

In addition, Junes 1826 (17.3), 1836 (15.3), and 1846 (18.2) had an average CET of 16.9

The first 3 recorded Junes that ended in a 6: 1666 (15), 1676 (18), and 1686 (15.5) had an average CET of 16.2

Of the 35 Junes that have ended in a 6, 22 of them (63%) have been equal to or above the overall 1659-2015 CET average of 14.3

 

At the other end of the scale the coolest June to end in a 6 was 100 years ago in 1916 with a CET of 11.8 and the second coolest was 200 years ago in 1816 at 12.8

 

[Relativistic]

12.1C.

[Costa Del Fal]

14.9c please.

[simshady]

13.8c please.

[sundog]

A warm June i reckon 15.8c  for me please.

[wishingforsnow]

Anything above 13C hopefully.

Will go for 14.4C for now.

[iapennell]

Based on my revised prediction for a drier and warmer June than my earlier prediction of a chilly (and in the North wet) month can I go for a mean CET of 14.6C, please? 

Edited May 30, 2016 by iapennell

[Lettucing Gutted]

The season of warmest dread has arrived...  20.5C    Last sub 12C June in 1972.  Last sub 13C and last sub 13.5C June in 1991.

Edited May 22, 2016 by Lettucing Gutted

[crucible72]

7 hours ago, Lettucing Gutted said:

The season of warmest dread has arrived...  20.5C    Last sub 13C and last sub 13.5C June in 1991.  Last sub 12C June in 1972.

I like the thinking. We are well overdue an exceptionally hot June.

[DAVID SNOW]

7 hours ago, Lettucing Gutted said:

The season of warmest dread has arrived...  20.5C    Last sub 13C and last sub 13.5C June in 1991.  Last sub 12C June in 1972.

So Craig, your expecting yet another month to smash the CET record to pieces.

Looking at all the models(those available) and the analogues, a heat wave for the first week of June is looking unlikely at the moment, that being the case, you are then down to 3 weeks to get 20.5.

Temps pushing the mid nineties solidly for the last 3 weeks of June would be pushing it a bit, don't you think?

Are you sure you've  got the correct CET comp?

This is not the Central Ethiopian Temperature thread.

[Lettucing Gutted]

The return periods between each new warm record are practically non-existent now and so its only a matter of time before the next one.

Edited May 23, 2016 by Lettucing Gutted

[crucible72]

42 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

So Craig, your expecting yet another month to smash the CET record to pieces.

Looking at all the models(those available) and the analogues, a heat wave for the first week of June is looking unlikely at the moment, that being the case, you are then down to 3 weeks to get 20.5.

Temps pushing the mid nineties solidly for the last 3 weeks of June would be pushing it a bit, don't you think?

Are you sure you've  got the correct CET comp?

This is not the Central Ethiopian Temperature thread.

It's conceivable if maximum temperatures hit 30+ for a week or so near the end of the month, similar to what happened in Jun/Jul 76 (CET of 23.1 over 12 days). From what I can tell, there is a good chance of high pressure bringing a warm start to the month. If the first half averages around 18C (e.g. max 24 min 12) then I think 20.5 or something close to it could happen. It does sound high, but then I don't think many would have taken seriously an advance prediction of 9.7 for last December.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Below is the June CET from 1659-2015 in blue, the 30 year average in orange and the linear trend in black.

The CET this month is likely to finish somewhere between 12.2C and 13.0C. The average June following May in that range is 14.8C

The linear trend for the whole June record is +0.01C per century. Following this trend gives a June CET of 14.3C.
The linear trend for June since 1850 is +0.19C per century. Following this trend gives a June CET of 14.4C.
The linear trend for June since 1950 is +0.26C per century. Following this trend gives a June CET of 14.5C.
The linear trend for June over the last 50 years is +1.08C per century. Following this trend gives a June CET of 14.6C.
The linear trend for June over the last 30 years is +1.75C per century. Following this trend gives a June CET of 14.7C.

June is the only month in the CET series to exhibit essentially no warming trend from the beginning to the end of the record.
The warmest 30 year average for June is 14.72C in the 30 years up to 1851. The current 30 year average is on 14.47 and is unlikely to break the old record any time soon.

[DAVID SNOW]

7 minutes ago, crucible72 said:

It's conceivable if maximum temperatures hit 30+ for a week or so near the end of the month, similar to what happened in Jun/Jul 76 (CET of 23.1 over 12 days). From what I can tell, there is a good chance of high pressure bringing a warm start to the month. If the first half averages around 18C (e.g. max 24 min 12) then I think 20.5 or something close to it could happen. It does sound high, but then I don't think many would have taken seriously an advance prediction of 9.7 for last December.

The point I am trying to make is that you can not seriously expect the CET record, not just to be broken every month, but actually smashed to pieces! Its just plain daft.

[Methuselah]

14.5C please.

[Polar Gael]

15.0C for me please. 

[virtualsphere]

I'll try 16.2C please - surprisingly June has only been over 16C once since 1976 (in 2003), while between 1940 and 1976 the 16C mark was exceeded once a decade in 1940, 1950, 1960 and 1970.

[pegg24]

14.9 please

[Methuselah]

I'll upgrade my guess to 15.1C, please...

[B87]

I've been lurking for a while, but thought now was the time to join.  I'll go for 15.8c.

[CongletonHeat]

15.2