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Chase Day 13 - Slight risk S TX


nsrobins

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Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

I hope you guys are enjoying the 'bedding-in' as you scoot around Texas.
A reasonable chance today of action in SE TX and I'd look at the Austin/San Antonio area where EHI is maximised. If it doesn't work you could take in The Alamo tomorrow which is good value IMO.

Make the most of it - it all ramps up big time from the weekend. The models have been consistent with projecting a substantial deep moisture return and a quasi-stationary upper trough draped through Colorado to NM, with a DL inspired multi-day severe outbreak from Sunday to mid week, with Monday now in NAM range and looking 'high end' in the TX/OK Panhandles.


 

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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham
  • Location: Birmingham

GFS modeling is quite something for the first half of next week, particularly Tues/Weds. MLCAPE values in excess of 5000J/kg over central/southern plains, with sfc dewpoints hitting the mid-70s.  This being overlapped by strong westerly mid-level jet... Potential for high-end severe period indeed. 

Edited by weather09
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Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
29 minutes ago, weather09 said:

GFS modeling is quite something for the first half of next week, particularly Tues/Weds. MLCAPE values in excess of 5000J/kg over central/southern plains, with sfc dewpoints hitting the mid-70s.  This being overlapped by strong westerly mid-level jet... Potential for high-end severe period indeed. 

Yes and the reason I was very surprised by some of the downbeat comments by respected chasers on StormTrack the other day.
I would expect some posts to appear in the next day or so highlighting the risk.

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Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: want to find thunder-snow
  • Location: Ashbourne, Derbyshire

SPC are giving a nod for this weekend and into next week. D4 (Sunday) and D5 (Monday) but have 15% stat markings for (D4) a large swathe cutting down from South Dakota through Kansas, Oklahoma and into northern Texas. D5 is a smaller (relatively!) patch in central/northern Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas.

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Not even entertaining it Neil

We are heading northbound today should be some storms in Eastern Wyoming tomorrow before and expected Slight Risk comes in for Saturday up in the Dakotas/Montana, then back down to Nebraska for Sunday and then the big multiple days in Oklahoma Monday and Tuesday

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Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
1 hour ago, Paul Sherman said:

Not even entertaining it Neil

We are heading northbound today should be some storms in Eastern Wyoming tomorrow before and expected Slight Risk comes in for Saturday up in the Dakotas/Montana, then back down to Nebraska for Sunday and then the big multiple days in Oklahoma Monday and Tuesday

Indeed - which is why I was a bit tongue in cheek with the suggestion.
What are you thoughts on the potential big DL days Mon - Weds next week?

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Posted
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
  • Location: Wickham, S Hampshire, UK

Maybe NE not necessary for Sunday. Latest NAM focuses tor parameters around DDC. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Stopping for the night in Amarillo and let the guests savour the Big Texan and i am confident enough they can borrow 1 steak before next weeks big risks

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