Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Styx

Australia election July 2

Recommended Posts

Australia goes to the polls on July 2, two and a half years after the last one. Australia has 3 year election cycles with no fixed terms - early elections are often called if the government feels it may advantage them. They can do this if any legislation they put up is rejected by the Senate three times, and it helps if they can come up with a good excuse for perservering with it. They can put something up knowing it will be rejected twice, then put it up a third time and use it as an election trigger when it suits. The full Senate will also be up for election this time.

This is a first term Conservative government after two terms of Labor. PM Turnbull ( moderate ) deposed Abbott ( conservative wing ) of the party in September. It has been a very unpopular government mainly because of it's broken election commitments and it's socially conservative principles, which are far removed from the centreground. Prime Minister Turnbull promised something different but the parliamentary party appear to have kept him in line with the conservative cause, pretty much destroying his popularity bounce when he took over.

The election attack lines are predictable. I wonder whether any of this sounds familiar to anyone?  Conservatives: "You can't trust Labor to run the economy with safe hands" and Labor: "It's about fairness and you can't trust an out of touch, rich Tory who is controlled by the conservative arm of the party". Labor has tilted to the left, probably in response to the Green party picking up momentum in certain seats. The problem Australia Labor has is authenticity.

The average of  recent polls have Conservatives at 42.5%  ( down 3% on last election ), Labor 35% ( up 1.5% ), Greens 11% ( up 2.5% ). Most Green voters preference Labor ahead of the Conservatives on their ballot paper so it's not as bad as it looks for Labor, but right now it looks like the Conservatives will be re-elected with a 4 or 5 seat majority in the 150 member House.

Edited by Styx
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I always found Australian politics more ruthless than British politics. How many Aussie PMs have been removed from office by their own party in the last 50 years? Gorton, Hawke, Rudd, Gillard, Abbott. 

That's astonishing and then you look at Snedden, Hayden, Peacock, Hewson, Howard, Crean, Nelson, Turnbull, all opposition leaders who were forced out in the same period. We use to mock Italian politics with their revolving door of governments and PMs but Aussie politics is not that far behind. 

I use to live in Australia when I was young, Whitlam, Fraser, Hawke were the PMs in the period I lived there. I don't know if the quality of politician has deteriorated in Australia since I lived there but how Abbott became PM I'll never know. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Compulsory voting may have a lot to do with the lack of inspiration from Australia's political leaders. If they usually promise big things the language is often vague and symbolic and in the end not delivered, but mostly it's bread and butter issues with an exaggerated line between what the parties stand for. Compulsory voting means that the bulk of the electorate who don't have an interest in politics even in the best of times swing elections so the simple messages are directed at them. The media adds to the problem with it's short sound bites and focus on personality politics.  I always thought compulsory voting was a good idea but not anymore, it gives too much power to the disinterested and pushes those who want bigger things done to the margins, that's reflected in the politician we end up with. On top of that I would like to think that Australia's three recent Prime ministers  ( Abbott, Rudd and Gillard ) were an abberation from the norm in terms of demosntrating leadership skills. They were either not vetted appropriately for being stable ( Rudd ), ready and genuine ( Gillard ) and in the case of  Abbott what can one say, he was an accident and lacked the maturity in so many ways. I think we have a good leader now but he is hamstrung by the conservative element in his party and having to dumb down his messages because of the compulsory vote situation.

 

Edited by Styx

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is the first major Issues poll of the election campaign. It may not reveal anything remarkable. Economic issues ranks as the highest priority topic. Australia has not been in recession for 25 years but the good headline figures, such as a low unemployment rate ( 5.6% ), low inflation ( 2% )  and low mortgage rates ( 1.75% ) masks underlying stresses such as personal debt, slowing real wage growth and underemployment - 'first world problems'. It's probably unfortunate Australia hasn't had a pronounced economic shock for over a generation, it's bred a lot of complacency.  It is bound to cause a big political and social disruption when things go bust. China's big growth coming to an end would probably do it.

poll.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tony Abbott will be recontesting his seat - something that former PMs don't usually do when they lose their job down here - fueling a rumor he has ambitions to lead the Conservatives again. There is no way in the world the Australian electorate would welcome his return, that is certain. Thing is, he is the darling of the right wing faction of the party which is quite sizeable, so the PM will need a comfortable victory to keep them at bay. The polls are very close so it's not going to be an easy thing to do. Abbott and his supporters appear to be philosophically aligned to the US Republican party, but without a viable and strong support base outside of the party. I sense an almighty chasm opening up between the two sides if they win narrowly or they lose, eventhough they have worked reasonably harmoniously together up until now.

On the Labor side there is a more profound division between the environmental left and the traditional base. The Green party have made some inroads, and Labor has edged left but sometimes ambiguously.

What is going to be of most interest ( to me ) is how many seats the Greens, independents and smaller parties can pick up this time. There are currently just 5 MPs from the 150 which don't represent the major parties. A sad indictment on the Australian voter I think.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ABC has conducted a very comprehensive survey of Australia's most conservative and progressive electorates in the country, based on electors attitudes to a number of social, environmental and economic issues. So where are the most conservative and progressive areas in Australia?

Of the top 10 most progressive electorates, 5 are in and around Melbourne ( 4 are presently held by Labor, and 1 by the Greens ). One is in Tasmania ( Hobart, held by an independent ), 1 is in Canberra ( Labor ), and 3 are in and around Sydney ( all Labor ).

Of the top 10 most conservative electorates, 9 are in rural Queensland ( 8 held by the Conservatives or rural Conservative party and 1 by an independent ). The other is on the outskirts of Perth ( Conservative ).

The recent national polls still show a very narrow Conservative re-election result. A Labor win is my preference but I don't really trust their capacity ( or their sincerity really ) to implement their agenda, which isn't much but it's certainly more forward looking. A lot of it is long term goals, obscure starting points. The Conservatives are too dominated by economic rationalists and the christian right...Abbott was the first PM to unashamedly fly that flag and his supporters haven't deserted him.  This makes Malcolm Turnbull too cautious which is a great shame, a lot of talent there unable to be used.     

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Brexit has strengthened the chance the Conservatives will be re-elected on Saturday. The best party to manage the economy in uncertain times - and that's the main story right now - always assists the governing party with the Conservative side always tending to poll better on those types of economic questions.    

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

Disillusioned feel fleeced by the elite

On Saturday we vote, and we do so amid the ashes of one of the most seismic political events of the last 35 years. Immediately, as the reality of Brexit urged itself upon us, both of our major parties attempted to riff it into their election pitch: the Coalition urging us to back stability and Labor relying on its record during the Global Financial Crisis to argue it can be trusted to deal with the fallout. But in truth, it points only to their declining power: the declining purchase of mainstream parties on our political imaginations. And on Saturday that will be proven when we return the highest non-major party vote since we've had a solid two-party system. That will be our Brexit, if you like: much, much milder but still an unmistakable mark of disillusionment.


 

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/australia-brexit-and-the-search-for-meaning-20160630-gpv4s5.html#ixzz4D7XBF7gp

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A very tight election. It may not be known until the end of the week - or the beginning of next week - whether the conservative coalition ( the Liberal and National parties ) have been re-elected by the slimmest of margins ( 1 or 2 seats ) or whether there is a minority government with the conservatives having to rely on the support of a number of non-aligned independents.

In the last 80 years there has only been one other hung parliament ( Gillard 2010-13 ) a very ugly time in politics with a lot of muck throwing and the whipping up of angst in the community by the other side. Got to hope this won't be repeated as a tool to create instability. 

Not possible for Labor to win a majority and it is unlikely they will be able to govern effectively having to rely on almost the entire crossbench of 5 or 6 independents/minor party MPs to get anything done.

The 23% vote for minor parties and independents is a record but it only translated into 5 or 6 seats ( out of 150 ) as it was split between a lot of contesting parties and independents.  Left leaning independents and parties did well in the cities and the Right picked up votes in outer suburban areas and in rural/outback. The mood in general like elsewhere is anti-politician and anti-establishment but it is not being harnessed by one particular political movement.

Labor is crowing about it's success but it has only got close to winning because a majority of this 23% preferenced them after their number 1 vote ahead of the governing parties on their ballot paper. The ordering of candidates is compulsory otherwise the vote is invalidated. Labor will get about 35% of the national vote which is their second lowest on record after 2013.  

Tasmania's five seats went 4 Labor and 1 independent after being 3 Liberal-1 labor-1 independent last time.

The Greens will have 1 or 2 seats in the federal parliament ( the conservatives won't be dealing with them in any way ), 1 or 2 seats will go to a new independent party based in South Australia ( populist-protectionist-socially liberal-immigrant friendly ), 1 to an independent from Hobart ( centre-left ), 1 to a rural Victorian independent ( populist-centreish ) and 1 to a rural Queensland independent ( right ). 

A chaotic time ahead with perhaps some unthinkable things about to happen.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 hours ago, Styx said:

A very tight election. It may not be known until the end of the week - or the beginning of next week - whether the conservative coalition ( the Liberal and National parties ) have been re-elected by the slimmest of margins ( 1 or 2 seats ) or whether there is a minority government with the conservatives having to rely on the support of a number of non-aligned independents.

In the last 80 years there has only been one other hung parliament ( Gillard 2010-13 ) a very ugly time in politics with a lot of muck throwing and the whipping up of angst in the community by the other side. Got to hope this won't be repeated as a tool to create instability. 

Not possible for Labor to win a majority and it is unlikely they will be able to govern effectively having to rely on almost the entire crossbench of 5 or 6 independents/minor party MPs to get anything done.

The 23% vote for minor parties and independents is a record but it only translated into 5 or 6 seats ( out of 150 ) as it was split between a lot of contesting parties and independents.  Left leaning independents and parties did well in the cities and the Right picked up votes in outer suburban areas and in rural/outback. The mood in general like elsewhere is anti-politician and anti-establishment but it is not being harnessed by one particular political movement.

Labor is crowing about it's success but it has only got close to winning because a majority of this 23% preferenced them after their number 1 vote ahead of the governing parties on their ballot paper. The ordering of candidates is compulsory otherwise the vote is invalidated. Labor will get about 35% of the national vote which is their second lowest on record after 2013.  

Tasmania's five seats went 4 Labor and 1 independent after being 3 Liberal-1 labor-1 independent last time.

The Greens will have 1 or 2 seats in the federal parliament ( the conservatives won't be dealing with them in any way ), 1 or 2 seats will go to a new independent party based in South Australia ( populist-protectionist-socially liberal-immigrant friendly ), 1 to an independent from Hobart ( centre-left ), 1 to a rural Victorian independent ( populist-centreish ) and 1 to a rural Queensland independent ( right ). 

A chaotic time ahead with perhaps some unthinkable things about to happen.

How do you think the Coalition would have done if Abbott was still leader?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Weather-history said:

How do you think the Coalition would have done if Abbott was still leader?

Labor would have won comfortably but probably not in a landslide - they were coming off a very low base and were not polling the sort of numbers Rudd did in the leadup to the 2007 poll when the Coalition lost government after four terms. So maybe an 85-60-5 result or something like that. A majority is 76.

The Coalition rebounded spectacularly in the polls when Abbott was replaced but went downhill fairly quickly when Turnbull ( and the government ) seemed to lose a narrative of what it stood for after a very conservative ( but unpopular ) agenda.

There was a poll released yesterday on a Turnbull vs potential Abbott primeministership. I don't know why they bothered doing this...I can't see Abbott ever returning to the leadership based on those low poll numbers you see but Turnbull is under pressure because he didn't deliver a victory for the party, and many have a problem with his liberal positions. If they knock him off his likely replacement will be the foreign minister.

 

poll.png   

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, lfcdude said:

 

Does that mean a hung parliament like here, or will they vote again?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, lfcdude said:

 

Interesting numbers.. this is the first time I have seen them tallied up like that. There is still 17% of the vote to count so there will be some small changes, but most of the seats have been sorted out because the margins aren't big enough to change the result. That two-party preferred vote doesn't count the 5 electorates who elected a Green, minor party or independent MP. It also doesn't include another 10-15 electorates in which there was only one major party who made it into the final two after voters preferences were distributed. This number is going to increase in the future making an Australia wide two-party preferred vote difficult to calculate and less relevant. There are a lot of seats - and many more to come - which are Liberal vs Green...the Green vote has overtaken Labor.

By the way that 70% turnout is people turning up to a polling booth, another 25% voted early or by post...and the other 5% are going to get a very stern letter from the electoral commission asking them to explain themselves. 

Edited by Styx

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, alexisj9 said:

Does that mean a hung parliament like here, or will they vote again?

They are saying this morning that the Liberal-National coalition will win a one or two seat majority. If they don't, they will be governing with the loose support of one or two independents making the situation unpredictable. Unfortunately there's no third party with a a bloc of seats to work with in the event of a hung parliament,  like the Conservatives-Liberal Democrats deal over there last time. So they need to speak to a couple of independents who have their own agenda if they don't manage to cross the line. There are 5 available, 3 are willing to talk, 2 aren't.

Edited by Styx

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Conservatives officially re-elected with a 1 seat majority. 

Liberal-National Coalition ...76

Labor....69

Greens....1

Nick Xenophon Team....1

Independents.....3

I had a look at what the result would be in a hypothetical  first past the post election

Liberal-National Coalition ....91

Labor.....54

Greens.....2

Independents.....3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Styx said:

Conservatives officially re-elected with a 1 seat majority. 

Liberal-National Coalition ...76

Labor....69

Greens....1

Nick Xenophon Team....1

Independents.....3

I had a look at what the result would be in a hypothetical  first past the post election

Liberal-National Coalition ....91

Labor.....54

Greens.....2

Independents.....3

Another one:shok:, seem to have an election every week.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Another one:shok:, seem to have an election every week.

It can feel like that. I think the last federal election was two and a half years ago . Each of the six states and territories also go to the polls at different times on a 3 or 4 year cycle. There are also council elections. And all of it is compulsory for the voter! If you like politics it's a lot of fun.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

  • Lockdown Gardening - Top Tips for New Gardeners

    Lockdown Gardening - Top Tips for New Gardeners - Blog by Jenny Bell WWW.NETWEATHER.TV In the first in a regular series of gardening articles, Jenny Bell gives her top tips for new gardeners who are maybe taking their first gardening steps during the lockdown.  

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Warm Sunny Days Before A More Unsettled & Cooler Easter Weekend

    High pressure in charge next few days will bring warm sunshine for many, but from Good Friday and through the Easter Weekend it will turn cooler and more unsettled with showers. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...