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nsrobins

Chase Day 3 - ENH risk C/E OK into AR

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Two potential targets today - off the DL just East of the I35 corridor and towards Indian Territory and a second area on the OK/AR line in Cabin Fever country.
The later target has issues with topography but has higher EHI hence tornadic potential. The former target DL cells are likely to be more discrete and in better territory but the hodos look less favourable for tornadogenesis to me.

I might go for the further east target and then drop back West if its slow to get going. The area chosen is more open than most of W AR and provides a corridor to chase E into AR.
Target between Smithville, OK and DeQueen, AR

 

Edit: The 07Z RAP puts a decent discrete cell over Ada, OK at 21Z in an interesting bubble of enhanced shear parameters. Might be worth considering during the coffee stop. PS: Virtual in UK until 21/5/16 then chasing for two weeks
 

Edited by nsrobins

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Update: this looks like bring a decent day and I'm still looking at the OK/AR line around DeQueen, AR.

This should be achievable from the teams current location in Enid, monitoring for obs and OFBs during the shift east. Surface dps currently on the way into the area of >18C, so bases will be lower than recent days. No inhibition to speak of after 20Z.

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SW Arkansas does look good theoretically looking at all the parameters, however, not good chase terrain if you want to follow storms NE from the AR/OK border, as it's heading into hills and trees.

terrain.PNG

Dryline fires up around 21z on 4km NAM, just west of the I-35, though shear doesn't look all that great compared to further east, so storms may have difficulty staying discrete for long.

NAM4KMSGP_prec_radar_009.png

Red River towards the Arkansas border and on to Texarkana does look good area tornado-wise later, any further north you are into the wooded hills, further east into Arkansas you are into pine forests as far as Arkansas River after which its flat open rice fields.

NAM4KMSGP_con_stp_011.png

Not an easy one to target given terrain where best tornado parameters are, otherwise it's luck with the dryline further west with better terrain

Edited by Nick F

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Dryline pushing in hard from the West atm almost on the TX Panhandle and Western Oklahoma Border. Going for a long shot today and the risk further North and sacking off the better risk in Junglesville in SE Oklahoma. Expecting Initiation by 3pm along or near I35

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Interestingly the 15Z HRRR drops the cells from the composite in SE OK.
Might be a decent call to go for the long shot on the I35 N of OKC - at least some decent moisture has pushed up into that region in the last few hours.

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Evening All,

GPS is up and running, will fire the stream up when the storms start to fire on the dryline

Could be a good one today! 

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DL surging east - now Woodward.

Still considerable disparity between the high-res models in initiation, but a 10% hatched tor risk would favour firing by 21Z with cell motion 35-40mph ENE with the area favouring rotating storms still on the OK/AR line. 

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I think I went on the page the minute you turned it on!

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blummin eckers, not only does the car(s) jump hundreds of miles but the stream is working!!

Can you make sure you get at least one drop before midnight uk time please - for me and all seasons at least...:pardon:

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Thanks Matty:)

yes it would be nice to see something before 11pm our time,too many late nights is no good:lazy::nonono:

though if a t dropped around that time,i will be watching:D

stay safe guys.

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looks like the start of something.

look at the chaser names in that area - mike olbinski, jemory carter and spencer albracht......

another food break, I couldn't chase in the states as I would have to declare 3 stone of extra baggage o the way back!!!!

Edited by matty40s

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are you using chaser tv or severe studios as a platform, or just netweather??

I cant get severe studios to expand to full stream if watching somebody, just see the top 1/3rd of their feed, is there a solution?

Chaser tv ok, just not many chasers.

on here is an excellent stream tonight. 

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34 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Is that something firing up at duncan,or is it just anoprop?

Towers going up in that area on recent vis. Satellite

image.gif

Can see the edge of the anvil on the Netweather stream now.

Edited by Nick F

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Hi Matty,just viewing netweather team at the mo,which site u using,going to check out stormvue.

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3 minutes ago, matty40s said:

are you using chaser tv or severe studios as a platform, or just netweather??

I cant get severe studios to expand to full stream if watching somebody, just see the top 1/3rd of their feed, is there a solution?

Chaser tv ok, just not many chasers.

on here is an excellent stream tonight. 

i had that issue using google chrome so changed

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looks like netweather  (tom lynch) are happy with the duncan cell.....:D

 

Edited by matty40s

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9 minutes ago, matty40s said:

looks like netweather  (tom lynch) are happy with the duncan cell.....:D

 

Nice discrete cell too:D

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you could have no tornados all season and still be entertained by mr lynch :D

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3 minutes ago, matty40s said:

you could have no tornados all season and still be entertained by mr lynch :D

You are not wrong there Matty,would be nice to have audio though so we could here them getting exited and chuckling lol

Edited by Allseasons-si
spell correction

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