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Storm risk - Monday 9th May onwards

Harry

By Harry
in Storms & Severe Weather

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted
4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

What sort of cloud is this? Cheers...

image.jpeg

It looks like Altocumulus Dan

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

Something has cropped up here again- clouds have built up and it has started raining.

I'm not expecting anything other than a rain shower.

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William Grimsley Seasoned

William Grimsley

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted (edited)

Ah, I can post again! Fantastic!

Yes, so I watched that cell to the SW develop and heard several rumbles of thunder from it which was nice! Then, I ended up watching the rainfall radar for the heavy showers/thunderstorms developing in Dorset as they moved east towards this area!

Eventually, a torrential downpour developed to the ENE! Fantastic! So, thinking this was going to turn into a thunderstorm, I rang Evening thunder and he came up here to watch it move in! However, time went by and no lightning was seen! The torrential downpour came and went and only produced one lightning strike NW of Exeter! Fantastic! Not! All in all, I think the topography of this area really doesn't help with thunderstorm development! Recently, the only thunderstorms that have managed to hit here have been elevated and moved in from the English Channel!

Rant over!

Edited by William Grimsley
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Cornishdave Apprentice

Cornishdave

Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm
  • Location: Exeter, Devon
Posted
9 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

Ah, I can post again! Fantastic!

Yes, so I watched that cell to the SW develop and heard several rumbles of thunder from it which was nice! Then, I ended up watching the rainfall radar for the heavy showers/thunderstorms developing in Dorset as they moved east towards this area!

Eventually, a torrential downpour developed to the ENE! Fantastic! So, thinking this was going to turn into a thunderstorm, I rang Evening thunder and he came up here to watch it move in! However, time went by and no lightning was seen! The torrential downpour came and went and only produced one lightning strike NW of Exeter! Fantastic! Not! All in all, I think the topography of this area really doesn't help with thunderstorm development! Recently, the only thunderstorms that have managed to hit here have been elevated and moved in from the English Channel!

Rant over!

Yep we had one lightning strike in Exeter, lovely fork of lightning, wasn't that close maybe 5 miles away as thunder wasn't loud but I got my storm fix for the eve, we were at a friends house with a good view over Exeter. The start of hopefully a good season storm wise. 

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William Grimsley Seasoned

William Grimsley

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted
Just now, Cornishdave said:

Yep we had one lightning strike in Exeter, lovely fork of lightning, wasn't that close maybe 5 miles away as thunder wasn't loud but I got my storm fix for the eve, we were at a friends house with a good view over Exeter. The start of hopefully a good season storm wise. 

That's all good and well, but I didn't even see it let alone hear the associated thunder!

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William Grimsley Seasoned

William Grimsley

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted

Well, what a day! Lots of excitement turned into annoyance! Ah well, it's just weather! Better luck another day, as they say! The Nest cam is back in it's original position now, by the way!

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
2 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

Well, what a day! Lots of excitement turned into annoyance! Ah well, it's just weather! Better luck another day, as they say! The Nest cam is back in it's original position now, by the way!

Welcome to the UK, William...Apart from Lincolnshire, it's the same everywhere!:D

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William Grimsley Seasoned

William Grimsley

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Welcome to the UK, William...Apart from Lincolnshire, it's the same everywhere!:D

Haha! I've just been on http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk and seen that they've updated the SLIGHT area to include my area earlier on this evening! A bit of drastic action as soon as they realised their mistake!

Edited by William Grimsley
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

I know what it's like, William: In 1975, I used to jump up and down and shout like a banshee, whenever t-storms or snow failed to materialize. Thankfully, there was no Internet in those far-off days!:D

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staplehurst Community Regular

staplehurst

Posted
  • Location: Norwich
  • Location: Norwich
Posted
9 hours ago, William Grimsley said:

Haha! I've just been on http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk and seen that they've updated the SLIGHT area to include my area earlier on this evening! A bit of drastic action as soon as they realised their mistake!

Hardly 'drastic action' - all that was done was the original SLGT was shifted a little further east. What you have to bear in mind was the original forecast (left) was issued nearly 24 hours in advance of any activity, and the position of the convergence zone was key to the development of thunderstorms - things can and do change slightly overnight, and latest data yesterday morning would suggest the SLGT needed to be further E, but since this is a voluntary service and the forecasters have other jobs that they are actually being paid to do, they were unable to update the forecast until they had a spare moment to do so.

change.png

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William Grimsley Seasoned

William Grimsley

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted (edited)
56 minutes ago, staplehurst said:

Hardly 'drastic action' - all that was done was the original SLGT was shifted a little further east. What you have to bear in mind was the original forecast (left) was issued nearly 24 hours in advance of any activity, and the position of the convergence zone was key to the development of thunderstorms - things can and do change slightly overnight, and latest data yesterday morning would suggest the SLGT needed to be further E, but since this is a voluntary service and the forecasters have other jobs that they are actually being paid to do, they were unable to update the forecast until they had a spare moment to do so.

change.png

Fair play, didn't realise that.

Well, looking at the BBC weather forecast, I have one more chance today by the looks of things with the sky starting to explode overhead. Wasn't expecting this. But, due to how "well" things have gone recently... I'm not getting excited.

Edited by William Grimsley
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William Grimsley Seasoned

William Grimsley

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted (edited)

Just noticed a very heavy downpour is forming to my WSW. I wonder if it will go bang soon?

Ok, so I've moved the Nest cam back to facing east in the hope that something forms. LOL.

Edited by William Grimsley
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William Grimsley Seasoned

William Grimsley

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted (edited)

Just had a brief heavy shower with big drops, here. This morning has turned out to be more convective than I had previously imagined...

Lightning detected ENE of Dorchester! WOW, what a great start! Wouldn't be surprised if I see some lightning and/or hear some thunder to the SW soon!

@Mapantz, I bet that woke you up!

Edited by William Grimsley
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Snowkissed Apprentice

Snowkissed

Posted
  • Location: Wimborne, Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow (of course) Storms, Sunshine, everything begging with 'S'
  • Location: Wimborne, Dorset
Posted

Just had a good crack of lightning and rumbling thunder here! Wasn't expecting that :)

 

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Ben Sainsbury Accomplished

Ben Sainsbury

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
Posted (edited)

My Take on Today... (Still Learning Of Course!)

Well currently we've already seen a few heavy showers to form along the South Coast, without doubt a positive sign.

As we go through the day, I expect temperatures to reach 20'c along Southern Areas as long as cloud doesn't inhibit this.

Unfortunately we see Dewpoints a little down on yesterday only reaching 10-11'c. Nevertheless we still see 500J/kg of CAPE, highest around the Bournemouth Area.

Decent Vertical Shear is evident along the South Coast which could enhance updrafts along with improved Lapse Rates.

Storm Relative Helicity is minimal today, with a lack of convergence areas too. However where we see some sea breeze convergence, this will trigger a few storms.

Nevertheless heavy showers and a few weak thunderstorms are possible today along Southern Coastal Areas, with a reduced risk of lightning and severity of storms.

Main Risk are Small Hail as a result of updrafts and Torrential Rain.

Forecast 13-05-16.jpg 

 

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

Wow - What a cock-up in the forecast! No rain mentioned yesterday, and 21°C yet it's 12°C and thundering. I have work to do!! 

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William Grimsley Seasoned

William Grimsley

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Wow - What a cock-up in the forecast! No rain mentioned yesterday, and 21°C yet it's 12°C and thundering. I have work to do!! 

Yes, looks like an increased chance of thunderstorms here later on today going by the recent activity, was certainly not expecting this to arise!

What I can't understand is that there are cells to my south which are as intense as the cells over Dorset but yet aren't producing any lightning!

Edited by William Grimsley
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Dale Hay Aficionado

Dale Hay

Posted
  • Location: Highworth (122m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and a cracking thunderstorm
  • Location: Highworth (122m ASL)
Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, Speedway Slider said:

Where/what is the best site to view clouds and their types, causes etc?? Maybe I'm not using correct terminology to find a good/best site?

There's a little gallery of some here (https://scied.ucar.edu/cloud-image-gallery), if you click on one it has a little brief description below.

Or there's always WikiPedia. Main article: 'Cloud' https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud (or if you go to the very bottom of this article (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cumulus_cloud) and expand the 'Cloud genera and selected species, supplementary features, and other airborne hydrometeors - WMO Latin terminology except where indicated' box, more types will be listed. Just click on any and you'll get plenty of information) :)

However, I usually just refer to 'Simple WikiPedia' (https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud) for a lot of things, more easier to understand once I've woke up. :p 

 

Ooo, I'm a doughnut, forgot to mention something a closer to home, there's also a thread on here too.

Edited by Dale Hay
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MattTarrant Aficionado

MattTarrant

Posted
  • Location: Ramsey, Minnesota (USA)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/Snow/Hail & Strong Winds
  • Location: Ramsey, Minnesota (USA)
Posted

I think we are going to have to wait to later for more developments as those showers are moving offshore. Still expect a few isolated thunderstorms around 5-7.

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted

colder air filtering down from the north is interacting with the milder stuff still clinging to the south coast. expect by this afternoon even the south cost will be in the cooler air so doubt anything will occur today I'm afraid. those showers in Dorset are gradually sinking south now and will die out.

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William Grimsley Seasoned

William Grimsley

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted
13 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

colder air filtering down from the north is interacting with the milder stuff still clinging to the south coast. expect by this afternoon even the south cost will be in the cooler air so doubt anything will occur today I'm afraid. those showers in Dorset are gradually sinking south now and will die out.

Not sure that's a great judgement, but fair play. Normally, colder air interacting with moist humid air will trigger thunderstorms.

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