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Storm risk - Monday 9th May onwards

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Estofex Forecast, no text on UK.

estofex magic.png

ConvectiveWeather Forecast:

Remnant convection will likely be ongoing across S / SW England first thing on Thursday morning, this clearing westwards to give sufficient insolation to develop isolated showers, more especially late afternoon into the early evening where low-level convergence (onshore flow plus topographical forcing) aids development. Forecast profiles suggest drying and warming aloft from the east through the day, therefore limiting depth of convection and resulting with the deepest instability becoming increasingly confined to the far SW. 

 

Lapse rates are once again fairly poor, despite high CAPE values forecast given relatively high dewpoints, and hence lightning will be fairly isolated (generally sub-SLGT criteria) with the main threat being local flash flooding from slow-moving heavy downpours in a high PWAT environment (high 20s mm). The strongest cells may perhaps produce hail up to 1.0cm in diameter, while relatively low LCLs and low-level convergence could once again produce a couple of funnels / weak tornadoes. Isolated elevated convection may affect parts of SE England on Thursday night.

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Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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Been home for half hour now. Laying in my dark bedroom with the curtains open and a big flash lit up the room followed by deep booming thunder :) 

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Looks like another thunderstorm chase is in action for me and Evening thunder, today. Once this crud moves, that is...

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What's my take on things? Well...

Once the weather system moves through, we'll see a fairly clear day which will lead to dirnual heating with temperatures peaking 23'c, and dewpoints between 11-14'c.

Convergence zone for me really sits over the South Coast from Salisbury to Wells.

CAPE up to 800J/Kg, SBCape amounts looking high.

Decent Lapse Rates

SRH values up to 150, along the South Coast

Low LCL's, chance of Funnel Clouds

Plenty of Avaliable Moisture, the further SW you go.

Forecast.png

 

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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4 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

What's my take on things? Well...

Once the weather system moves through, we'll see a fairly clear day which will lead to dirnual heating with temperatures peaking 23'c, and dewpoints between 11-14'c.

Convergence zone for me really sits over the South Coast from Salisbury to Wells.

CAPE up to 800J/Kg, SBCape amounts looking high.

Decent Lapse Rates

SRH values up to 150, along the South Coast

Low LCL's, chance of Funnel Clouds

Plenty of Avaliable Moisture, the further SW you go.

Forecast.png

 

Looks good, but is it worth the drive? Not sure...

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12 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

Looks good, but is it worth the drive? Not sure...

 

It's always worth the drive;)

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Looks like becoming quite wet shortly due to a band of heavy showers moving WSW towards here. We may get the odd flash of lightning with this if we're lucky.

Edited by William Grimsley

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Got ac and ac cas droping little drops here every now and then, not sure if any of it is heavy enough to show on radar.

Well big drops but not many of them.

Edited by alexisj9
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4 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Got ac and ac cas drop little drops here every now and then, not sure if any of it is heavy enough to show on radar.

Ooo, might see this as it moves west and blows up into severe thunderstorms!

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Be interesting to see how this turns out. It's heading straight for Newton Poppleford. :shok:

ens_max1hrprecip_17.png

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34 minutes ago, knocker said:

Be interesting to see how this turns out. It's heading straight for Newton Poppleford. :shok:

ens_max1hrprecip_17.png

the bigger question, is will the netweather servers be able able to cope with the shear amount of network traffic originating from Newton Poppleford if this verifies?..........just kidding William, hope you get your storm today :)

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Yes, looks like I could be in a prime position here! Ooo, to see a nice CB just roll in from over the hills to our east, it'll just feel like France again!

Anyway, a very wet start to day with persistent moderate rain! Looks like some heavy downpours are moving westwards towards here! My Nest cam live stream now looks east! Here it is: https://video.nest.com/live/OIJL3I

Edited by William Grimsley

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it has to be said though, for the past 36 hours, the NMM hi-res runs have been keen on breaking out something quite potent for William's neck of the woods....will be watching with interest

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7 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

Yes, looks like I could be in a prime position here! Ooo, to see a nice CB just roll in from over the hills to our east, it'll just feel like France again!

Anyway, a very wet start to day here with persistent moderate rain! My Nest cam live stream now looks east! Here it is: https://video.nest.com/live/OIJL3I

That's an impressive looking garden. :)

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51 minutes ago, knocker said:

That's an impressive looking garden. :)

Thanks, can't agree more myself! :D

New Nest stream angle now in place, slightly concerned about the amount of cloud here still...

Edited by William Grimsley

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Very murky this morning down in the South Hams; quite thick fog on the roads around 9am! Also got drenched walking back to the car about an hour ago...

Keeping my fingers crossed for something later on today:)

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Just a lovely sunny day here and bearly a cloud in the sky. I love storms but if I had the choice of this or some dreary weather with the chance of t-storms but not certain I prefer this. Very nice.

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There was certainly lots of ACas visible down south from my aircraft window...

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2 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:

There was certainly lots of ACas visible down south from my aircraft window...

Yes, can just about make some out to my east now in between the low cloud and mist.

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I'm inside a few forecasts risk boxes today tho I feel I may be a bit far north. Very hopeful though! Skies cleared here by around 8:30 and has been sunny ever since, nothing but some thin high cloud in the sky. Hope to see something erupt the evening once I'm done at work :)

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Convection starting to kick off with multiple Towering Cumulus clouds over the coast here, feeling very muggy out of the wind.

Edited by William Grimsley

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6 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

Convection starting to kick off with multiple Towering Cumulus clouds over the coast here, feeling very muggy out of the wind.

I hope you have a good day.

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