Storm risk - Monday 9th May onwards

[TropicThunder]

I'm sure I'm not alone in thinking I'm going to be glued to the radar and lightning maps over the next few hours lol. Keeping everything crossed but we all know what is likely to happen when it hits the channel.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

1 minute ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Nothings be ruined yet?

Hopefully he's Lyon

[paul_montague]

1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Hopefully he's Lyon

Oh come on Brest keep on topic!!!!!!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

4 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Nothings be ruined yet?

If they are surface based, which I think they are, then they will not survive the crossing as the updrafts will be lost from land heating. 

Some may however wish on a triumph of hope over experience. 

Edited May 11, 2016 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[stainesbloke]

Not sure I agree with all the 'Channel killing off storms' comments. Hardly a huge body of water. Made absolutely no difference in past decades with imports galore. Must be something entirely different. IMHO it's quite encouraging to see those storms in NE France and Belgium explode so rapidly, looks like they're moving towards SE and E England...

Edited May 11, 2016 by stainesbloke

[Ellozee]

I'm not particularly well versed in these matters, but I've been watching the storm radar, seems like quite a lot of tstorms in northern France. Any chance the extreme south east might catch any of these via import, or as the prevailing wind swings to a northerly are we more likely to miss out? Fingers crossed for anyone wanting storms, was too far east yesterday and it's been muggy and humid for a few days now. Just had a couple of hours of bright sunshine to finish the late afternoon.

[paul_montague]

It's actually refreshing to see them not heading up the French coast and into Belgium. what will be will be. At least you fine folks will be here to chat about it to.

[Bolt from the Blue]

5 minutes ago, paul_montague said:

Oh come on Brest keep on topic!!!!!!

Just one Lille storm would be Nice though 

[Mapantz]

I've been watching this station on the outskirts of Saint Quentin, that hourly rainfall has actually fallen in less than 30 minutes..

 

[paul_montague]

1 minute ago, AIRMET said:

Just one Lille storm would be Nice though 

We Caen keep this up can we!!!!

[Spikecollie]

Guys! Something might have survived the crossing. Heads up unless it's anomalous...

[Staffordshire]

First strike in the channel... i would be very excited if i was in the south tonight

Edited May 11, 2016 by Staffordshire

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

8 minutes ago, Ellozee said:

I'm not particularly well versed in these matters, but I've been watching the storm radar, seems like quite a lot of tstorms in northern France. Any chance the extreme south east might catch any of these via import, or as the prevailing wind swings to a northerly are we more likely to miss out? Fingers crossed for anyone wanting storms, was too far east yesterday and it's been muggy and humid for a few days now. Just had a couple of hours of bright sunshine to finish the late afternoon.

Kent and parts of Sussex may well see a few flashes. But given the lack of key ingredients and peak heating having not got underway in time, I personally wouldn't get my hopes up like I would've done years ago. We've had chance after chance today to ignite, and it just hasn't happened. Belgium and France have obviously had the benefits of the sun and insolation. 

Think we are forgetting that we haven't had a day of 29-32c temps... 

Edited May 11, 2016 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[stainesbloke]

1 minute ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Kent and parts of Sussex may well see a few flashes. But given the lack of key ingredients and peak heating having not got underway in time, I personally wouldn't get my hopes up like I would've done years ago. We've had chance after chance today to ignite, and it just hasn't happened. Belgium and France have obviously had the benefits of the sun and insolation. 

Think we are forgetting that we haven't had a day of 29-32c temps... 

True, heat certainly helps, though northern France hasn't reached anywhere near those temps today?  Bit warmer in Belgium.

[Mapantz]

Remnants will be likely to scrape the South coast..

  

[Spikecollie]

3 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

True, heat certainly helps, though northern France hasn't reached anywhere near those temps today?  Bit warmer in Belgium.

It has been mid to high 20s in northern France.

[Harry]

Take this with caution as the sky is quite hazy but it looks like a CB is developing immediately south of me. Narrow cloud but stretching high up. 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

1 minute ago, stainesbloke said:

True, heat certainly helps, though northern France hasn't reached anywhere near those temps today?  Bit warmer in Belgium.

Think it's probably the uninterrupted large fetch over the heated landmass that has helped over there too. They will always have the upper hand over us for storms and always will unfortunately in most cases! 

Had we have had sun from the word go under today's conditions, we will have undoubtedly seen more activity. Just got unlucky sadly. 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Just now, Harry said:

Take this with caution as the sky is quite hazy but it looks like a CB is developing immediately south of me. Narrow cloud but stretching high up. 

Can see it here the lid is still firmly in place unfortunately 

[stainesbloke]

3 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:

It has been mid to high 20s in northern France.

No it hasn't, only the extreme NE reached mid 20's.

[Spikecollie]

3 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

No it hasn't, only the

Quote

 

extreme NE reached mid 20's.

 

4 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

No it hasn't, only the extreme NE reached mid 20's.

Quote

Plenty of reports on Météciel of +24c up there. We had 20c down here with no sun!

 

[Hirudine]

Got rapidly growing cumulus bubbling up here - big ones.....

[Harry]

10 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Can see it here the lid is still firmly in place unfortunately 

You have a better vantage point than me, however from this vantage point it doesn't appear so.

[stainesbloke]

5 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Think it's probably the uninterrupted large fetch over the heated landmass that has helped over there too. They will always have the upper hand over us for storms and always will unfortunately in most cases! 

Had we have had sun from the word go under today's conditions, we will have undoubtedly seen more activity. Just got unlucky sadly. 

Yes generally that is true, often cloud interferes here sadly. I just think there must be other reasons why decent storms fail to make it to the UK intact in recent years than just the Channel. All the crazy storms I remember from previous decades weren't so affected. Anyway, might be a few surprises tonight with any luck! 

[Bolt from the Blue]

Towering Cu visible in almost every direction!