Storm risk - Monday 9th May onwards

[Arnie Pie]

Out for the day....chasing the Sun...and any storms which are obscuring it

 

[Mapantz]

3 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Where does one find maps pertaining to wind convergence areas?

The Netweather charts, either the NetWx or GFS - Wind direction/Speed/Streams. The NetWx is at a higher resolution, so its easier to see convergence.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

24 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

The Netweather charts, either the NetWx or GFS - Wind direction/Speed/Streams. The NetWx is at a higher resolution, so its easier to see convergence.

Ah I see but I'm not a member so don't think I have access. Thanks anyway tho :-)

[MattTarrant]

2 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Ah I see but I'm not a member so don't think I have access. Thanks anyway tho :-)

It is very annoying, we will have to make do

[Evening thunder]

33 minutes ago, Arnie Pie said:

Out for the day....chasing the Sun...and any storms which are obscuring it

 

Oh dear this will reduce the sun's strength a tiny bit and therefore might affect storm potential...lol

 

7 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Ah I see but I'm not a member so don't think I have access. Thanks anyway tho :-)

you can access the free GFS which does show wind speed/direction: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=



It used to be better for things like convergence zones as there used to me more streamlines on there, that changed a while ago though for some reason.

Edited May 9, 2016 by Evening thunder

[Ben Sainsbury]

7 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Ah I see but I'm not a member so don't think I have access. Thanks anyway tho :-)

You can have access to some NetWX Models... Including Temperature, Precipitation, Wind Gusts, Wind Direction, 500-1000hpa Thickness too.

Edited May 9, 2016 by Ben Sainsbury

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

1 minute ago, MattTarrant said:

It is very annoying, we will have to make do

It's okay I found it :-D the netwx wind gusts maps 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Lengthy spells of sun now 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

6 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Lengthy spells of sun now 

Yeah we've had hazy but fairly strong sun for a while now - about to venture out to see how warm it is out there. Been in Arizona for a couple of weeks and just got back and have the day off - so able to get out later if things start to develop

[Mapantz]

Yellow warnings for rain have been issued:

 

Edited May 9, 2016 by Mapantz

[weirpig]

humid outside hazy sunshine   BBc has me down for little rain overnight so not sure if I will hear anything  further south and west should be ok.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Rain areas developing south of the IOW in the channel now. Here it's getting cloudy and dark, but warm and humid so hoping for developments this afternoon

[Frosty hollows]

Very warm here...23C. Sky looks unstable but breaks in the cloud are allowing the sun to peep through

[Wilxy]

Afternoon.

Looking at sat24 there appears to be developments around SW London and its here where I think the first potential could happen due to it being much clearer with temps much higher and could effect through to Oxfordshire and then into the Cotswold and towards SE Wales.

[STORMGUY]

Took this a hour ago warm and humid out there.

[Harry]

8 minutes ago, tomjwlx said:

Afternoon.

Looking at sat24 there appears to be developments around SW London and its here where I think the first potential could happen due to it being much clearer with temps much higher and could effect through to Oxfordshire and then into the Cotswold and towards SE Wales.

This model is being much more bullish regarding precipitation than the UKMO, which is much much more sporadic in terms of outbreaks (UKMO does hint however a isolated cell outbreaks ahead of lighter looking showery rain).

NMM MUCAPE projections this evening aren't too inspiring (though there exists some).

I therefore remain at a low end of the excitement scale...uplifted only by the fact it has been far warmer and sunnier than initially forecast and therefore hopeful Dan's forecast on UKCW may come to fruition (and in fact resembles much like the AROME model above)

[Nick F]

Yep, can see a line of cumulus towers marking a suspected wind convergence line on recent visible satellite imagery just south of London and on toward M4 corridor. Can see the line just to my south here in Croydon, it's been trying to shoot up since late morning, but so far not producing.

[Paul]

3 hours ago, Evening thunder said:

you can access the free GFS which does show wind speed/direction: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=



It used to be better for things like convergence zones as there used to me more streamlines on there, that changed a while ago though for some reason.

I'll have a look at that, we should be able to up the number of streams to make it a bit clearer. 

Re the Netwx model, there is a free version of the model viewer here:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=netwx-sr;sess= (hires short range)
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=netwx-mr;sess= (lower res mid range)

[Wilxy]

Shower development to my south!

[Frosty hollows]

19 minutes ago, tomjwlx said:

Afternoon.

Looking at sat24 there appears to be developments around SW London and its here where I think the first potential could happen due to it being much clearer with temps much higher and could effect through to Oxfordshire and then into the Cotswold and towards SE Wales.

Lots of towers and now very dark and threatening to my SE which is the M4 surprisingly!

[A.J]

quite a pokey looking shower developing near Bath, and other showers developing around the M4 corridor now

[Dale Hay]

Finally, a nice shower.

 

[Frosty hollows]

Looks a bit like Saturday's set up when showers developed along M4 line, but didn't ignite til they crossed the river (ie north of me). If that's the case the Cotswolds could be the place for some action in the next couple of hours

[Evening thunder]

19 minutes ago, Paul said:

I'll have a look at that, we should be able to up the number of streams to make it a bit clearer. 

Re the Netwx model, there is a free version of the model viewer here:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=netwx-sr;sess= (hires short range)
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=netwx-mr;sess= (lower res mid range)

Ooo, thanks! If my memory's right it was about the time when the resolution of the GFS increased, so possibly there were too many streamlines and it got confusing so it was changed, as I remember happening with temperature values until it was changed. I used to like it for things like sea breezes and convergence zones which are quite common here.

I didn't realise the Netwx model had a free version either so that's useful.

Edited May 9, 2016 by Evening thunder

[MP-R]

The shower from Bath has been quick to grow as it encroaches on Bristol. Some bright echoes there (and very dark sky as seen from my office window). Wouldn't be surprised if it popped a strike or two soon if it keeps intensifying.