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Storm risk - Monday 9th May onwards

Harry

By Harry
in Storms & Severe Weather

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Arnie Pie Accomplished

Arnie Pie

Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
  • Weather Preferences: Columus Bigus Convectivus
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
Posted

Liking the look of the Scorpions tail crossing from E to W

capture-20160511-160017.png

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NUT Accomplished

NUT

Posted
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
Posted

Seems a little shower's brewed in Scotland again? (Nowhere near me)

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tomp456 Seasoned

tomp456

Posted
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything unusual
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
Posted
41 minutes ago, Speedway Slider said:

Gone bonkers over France/Belgium!

Screenshot_2016-05-11-15-24-14.png

As usual.

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Gordon Webb Rising Star

Gordon Webb

Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
Posted
2 minutes ago, Arnie Pie said:

Liking the look of the Scorpions tail crossing from E to W

capture-20160511-160017.png

couldn't see it at first but now I can

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MP-R Maestro

MP-R

Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
Posted

I think tomorrow will be our best chance here in the West Country. Hopefully the day will get off to a considerably better start than today did.

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Ben Sainsbury Accomplished

Ben Sainsbury

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
Posted
Just now, MP-R said:

I think tomorrow will be our best chance here in the West Country. Hopefully the day will get off to a considerably better start than today did.

Might give my experimental storm forecast a go for tomorrow hehe...

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Gordon Webb Rising Star

Gordon Webb

Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
Posted

the lightning seems to have the same attitude as the sun (like hell I'm going to appear today)

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Karl83 Community Regular

Karl83

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat Waves, Tornadoes.
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
Posted
15 minutes ago, MP-R said:

I'm actually in north Bristol at the moment so it's not raining at all and like you say the sky is brighter than it has been for a lot of today. Looks very different down where I actually live, currently under dark red on the N-W radar.

Edit: in fact it's so much brighter that we've just had about 60 seconds of sunshine haha.

Yep I'm also in North Bristol and can now see shadows!

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weather09 Aficionado

weather09

Posted
  • Location: Birmingham
  • Location: Birmingham
Posted
57 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Unfortunately it looks like just lots of heavy showers again with no real breaks in the cloud. We had a few breaks here earlier but they lasted no more than 5 minutes before the cloud rolled back in again. Disappointing, I was hoping for more today.

Yeah, this week in general did look like it had decent enough potential a few days ago, though cloud cover and rain shield with fronts was always looking  to be an issue, and has inhibited storm development on the whole.  Noticed the GFS has been lowering its CAPE progs ahead of time - likely picking up on the increased cloud amounts and lack of heating.  Shame, as the moisture is decent (dew points mid teens or a touch above).  Saturday we had good heating and adequate forcing to break out the storms across Midlands.  

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Arnie Pie Accomplished

Arnie Pie

Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
  • Weather Preferences: Columus Bigus Convectivus
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
Posted (edited)

"The Scorpion is now morphing into a Crab!"

As expected no sting in the tail for us then this afternoon

Edited by Arnie Pie
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Flash bang flash bang etc Veteran

Flash bang flash bang etc

Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
Posted

I'm liking the look of this. Powerful storms exactly where we need them to be over France and Belgium, nice and early (unlike yesterday), winds steering in just the right direction, rain areas not dissipating too quickly over the channel, and enough sun breaking through the clouds to keep the heat up but not cause any disruptive showers...

i mi reckon tonight might just bring the goods :)

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Ben Sainsbury Accomplished

Ben Sainsbury

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
Posted
2 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I'm liking the look of this. Powerful storms exactly where we need them to be over France and Belgium, nice and early (unlike yesterday), winds steering in just the right direction, rain areas not dissipating too quickly over the channel, and enough sun breaking through the clouds to keep the heat up but not cause any disruptive showers...

i mi reckon tonight might just bring the goods :)

Looks like a developing MCS to my eye!;)

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

Looking at the modelling, the energy fades on our shores, so that will end up being a weakening area of rain for coastal counties.

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MP-R Maestro

MP-R

Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
Posted
26 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Might give my experimental storm forecast a go for tomorrow hehe...

Go for it! :)

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Flash bang flash bang etc Veteran

Flash bang flash bang etc

Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
Posted

We've had sunny bursts here in Guildford - albeit short ones but pretty strong where they do pop up.

19°C according to the van thermometer which isn't bad at all (was aiming for 22)

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Gordon Webb Rising Star

Gordon Webb

Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
Posted
2 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Watching that dieppe cell with interest to see what it thinks of the water when it gets there...

wonder if it'll dieppe it toes in the water

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Spikecollie Accomplished

Spikecollie

Posted
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny with night time t-storms
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
Posted (edited)

I've had quite a few May and September days working in northern France when there have been tremendous storms. They can be very spectacular and also rather dangerous...

Keraunos has some great photos of funnel clouds from yesterday up in the north. Wouldn't be surprised if the gallery wasn't added to by the end of today.

Edited by Spikecollie
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Spikecollie Accomplished

Spikecollie

Posted
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny with night time t-storms
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
Posted (edited)

It will be interesting to see if it Caen do it...

Seriously I doubt it, but that can change quickly. This is just a typically instable May day in northern France.

Edited by Spikecollie
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