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Storm risk - Monday 9th May onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham City Centre
  • Location: Birmingham City Centre

Hah, looks like the only T+L I'll have seen tonight will be on Russia's entry for Eurovision!

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Posted
  • Location: Ampney Crucis, Nr. Cirencester
  • Location: Ampney Crucis, Nr. Cirencester
3 minutes ago, Speedway Slider said:

This little beggar seems to be crabbing it's way to and through Swindon'ish, any non CG lightning with it??

 

Screenshot_2016-05-10-22-33-21.png

Raining steady here in Cirencester, will find out when that pulse over Swindon comes through.

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
19 minutes ago, Speedway Slider said:

This little beggar seems to be crabbing it's way to and through Swindon'ish, any non CG lightning with it??

 

Screenshot_2016-05-10-22-33-21.png

no lightning from this clump of ppn.sadly...I'm in the middle of it, and have been watching the skies for the past 30 mins....diddly squat

19 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Was going to say convinced it wasn't anaprop!

Combination.jpg

indeed, anaprop they're not

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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

An interesting line of showers just popped up to my east. No sferics though unfortunately.

Capture.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester (LE3)
  • Location: Leicester (LE3)

Looks like it's growing a squall line?

2 minutes ago, Supacell said:

An interesting line of showers just popped up to my east. No sferics though unfortunately.

Capture.PNG

Looks like it's growing a squall line?

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester (LE3)
  • Location: Leicester (LE3)
28 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

no lightning from this clump of ppn.sadly...I'm in the middle of it, and have been watching the skies for the past 30 mins....diddly squat

indeed, anaprop they're not

Seems to have rained itself out.....

Screenshot_2016-05-10-23-24-12.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Just started moderately raining here. Given the complete absence of any electrical action in some torrential downpours across the UK, I'm somewhat pessimistic about this rain turning thundery. On that note, good luck anyone staying awake and fingers crossed for tomorrow.

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester (LE3)
  • Location: Leicester (LE3)

Why, with all this muggy heat we've had since Saturday, with temps of 25c to 27c across the Midlands and south, why no thundery breakdown? Sunday, when I was at the speedway, getting rid of all the water from Saturdays thundery episode it felt awful in the heat, so muggy and oppressive, but nothing, not a single thunder clap, diddly squat, nowt yesterday, and then today this God damn awful dank, sultryness, sunless, wet rubbish... Why did it develop like this and not a day of flash, bang, wallop?

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W

all chance of thunder is now gone as Carol K used the Dreaded Humdingers in the BBC forecast so that has killed that stone dead lol

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

A very cloudy and damp start here. I think we've got about the same chance if not slightly better chance of seeing thunderstorms today. But, I still think lightning will be very hit and miss, so not sure whether to consider chasing again after the non-eventful performance of yesterday...

Anyone think it's worth it, today?

Edited by William Grimsley
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Posted
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
1 hour ago, Gordon Webb said:

all chance of thunder is now gone as Carol K used the Dreaded Humdingers in the BBC forecast so that has killed that stone dead lol

Humdingers? You know what that means? Breathe a sigh of relief Gordon.

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
8 hours ago, Speedway Slider said:

Why, with all this muggy heat we've had since Saturday, with temps of 25c to 27c across the Midlands and south, why no thundery breakdown? Sunday, when I was at the speedway, getting rid of all the water from Saturdays thundery episode it felt awful in the heat, so muggy and oppressive, but nothing, not a single thunder clap, diddly squat, nowt yesterday, and then today this God damn awful dank, sultryness, sunless, wet rubbish... Why did it develop like this and not a day of flash, bang, wallop?

Not enough instability for the amount of rain we're seeing e.g. low CAPE and high PWAT. For example, in yesterday's setup there would have needed to have been torrential downpours with rainfall rate's of at leat 200 - 300 mm/hr to probably produce lightning, much higher than the norm. This is due to there being more moisture in the air than normal.

Edited by William Grimsley
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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
37 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

Not enough instability for the amount of rain we're seeing e.g. low CAPE and high PWAT. For example, in yesterday's setup there would have needed to have been torrential downpours with rainfall rate's of at leat 200 - 300 mm/hr to probably produce lightning, much higher than the norm. This is due to there being more moisture in the air than normal.

I don't know if it's just me, but I can certainly see the sky clearing later briefly. Certainly according to GFS, seems to be higher CAPE around and therefore more instability, but we shall see.

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
3 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

I don't know if it's just me, but I can certainly see the sky clearing later briefly. Certainly according to GFS, seems to be higher CAPE around and therefore more instability, but we shall see.

Yes, for today I think most thundery showers/thunderstorms will be focussed across this area like yesterday, I just hope there's a bit more "oomf" to the showers today.

What I'd hope is that the mid-level convergence line shown just south of me moves north and breaks up a little to allow thunderstorms to develop on a line either overhead or close by...

Edited by William Grimsley
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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
3 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

Yes, for today I think most thundery showers/thunderstorms will be focussed across this area like yesterday, I just hope there's a bit more "oomf" to the showers today.

What I'd hope is that the mid-level convergence line shown just south of me moves north and breaks up a little to allow thunderstorms to develop on a line either overhead or close by...

Convergence does seem to be one of the possible deciding factors today, and again Funnel Cloud parameters seem reasonable, if the sun breaks could be a good day!

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
21 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Convergence does seem to be one of the possible deciding factors today, and again Funnel Cloud parameters seem reasonable, if the sun breaks could be a good day!

Yes, during the thunderstorm chase with Evening thunder yesterday, we didn't encounter any thunder and lightning, just torrential downpours and surface water flooding. However, I did see a lot of scud cloud rising rapidly into a Towering Cumulus cloud. But, even then, the rotation that was present was weak meaning none of the scud cloud formed into a funnel cloud.

Edited by William Grimsley
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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
3 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Looking at the sat no-one is getting storms today but heavy rain yes by the swimming pool load 

Pardon? I'm not sure about that, Surrey...

Edited by William Grimsley
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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

There look to be some breaks in the overall cloud mass more to the southwest, but at least this morning it's looking pretty shut in and wet for the majority. Depends how quickly this big area of rain shunts northwestwards to allow for things to clear up behind before optimal hours.

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

Looking at the rainfall radar, I wouldn't be surprised if places west and south of Yeovil will be reporting surface water flooding shortly!

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

Following that... it looks like a cell is forming at the bottom of edge of the this area of rain, just off the south coast between Portsmouth and Brighton.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
1 hour ago, William Grimsley said:

Not enough instability for the amount of rain we're seeing e.g. low CAPE and high PWAT. For example, in yesterday's setup there would have needed to have been torrential downpours with rainfall rate's of at leat 200 - 300 mm/hr to probably produce lightning, much higher than the norm. This is due to there being more moisture in the air than normal.

I am not entirely sure I can agree with the relationship between rainfall amounts and likelihood of lightning, William. Lightning occurs in volcanic eruptions and the last time I checked there is not a huge amount of rain involved there :rofl:

There is still a considerable amount of doubt within the meteorological community about what actually causes lightning. It seems incontrovertible that it is due to a build up of static charge. However, what is less clear is why in certain scenarios lightning occurs compared to others whereby it does not. You want a tall cloud, that reaches high up in the atmosphere (i.e where it is much colder and where you'll have a higher proportion of ice crystals/hail) and preferably violent updraughts and down-draughts to maximise the amount of particle collisions (i.e building up a much larger static charge). 

 

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