Storm risk - Monday 9th May onwards

[knocker]

Indeed

[Sparkiee storm]

Metcheck has a thunderstorm advisory out, for NW England/Midlands and Wales tomorrow.

[Greeny]

The southwest and southeastern Scotland according to GFS progging the most CAPE for tomorrow. Steepest lapse rates are refined to mainly the southwest stretching into northwest France. The centre of the low moves into Wales and heads southeast towards CS England. To the west of the centre 500hpa winds are moving south and east of the centre 500hpa winds are heading north. If storms break out on the east side of it in France then it looks like they may head into CS England across the channel.

500hpa winds indicating the centre of the low pressure system.

The reasonable DLS in the morning coincides with some strong vertical velocity but moves away into the afternoon where diurnal heating maximises.

The area of vertical velocity at 500hpa coinciding with the 18Z Cape forecast.

An interesting one will have to see how it pans out. Could William be in with a shout?

[Greeny]

7 minutes ago, Sparkiee storm said:

Metcheck has a thunderstorm advisory out, for NW England/Midlands and Wales tomorrow.

Northwest England although I decided not to mention it cause I was unsure but indications of wind convergences in the area moving southeast throughout the afternoon.

[William Grimsley]

Looking very interesting for my journey home from Marlow tomorrow! I'm leaving mid morning and aiming to be back home for mid afternoon! We should drive into some big thunderstorms which should be interesting! Though, most of the activity looks like being reserved for home later on in the afternoon, a nice treat to come back home to!

[NUT]

Looks to be some sparks in Northern Ireland..................

[Stuart]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 18 May 2016 - 05:59 UTC Thu 19 May 2016

ISSUED 19:03 UTC Tue 17 May 2016

ISSUED BY: Chris

Post cold-frontal convection is expected to develop widely across the British Isles through Wednesday as an upper low and subsequent broad cold pool aloft will aid convection capable of producing a few lightning strikes across much of southern Scotland, eastern Ireland and northern and eastern England. However, overall instability will be weak, meaning the potential of lightning will remain low. 

 

The greatest potential for thunderstorms on Wednesday will be across the Welsh-English border and much of the West Midlands and parts of south-central and southwestern England. After the morning cold front clears eastwards cold air aloft will spread across the region and combined with some sunny spells/surface heating, CAPE values will reach 500-700 j/kg. Convection should initiate just before midday in the western edge of the SLGT area and shift eastwards through the afternoon. Overall shear remains relatively weak therefore showers and thunderstorms will be mainly of the pulse variety and thus severe weather and the chance of any significant hail is unlikely. Brief heavier downpours on ground that will have had rain earlier in the day could produce some very localised flash flooding, mainly in the SLGT region. 

 

All showers will be diurnal in nature and will become more isolated after 1800BST and fading away between 1900-2000BST. 

 

http://www.convective.weatherquest.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-05-18

[Joey.G]

Think I may take my camera to work tomorrow since I look to be in a reasonably good spot and theres going to be some lovely cauliflowers about. At the risk of Tuting off my collegues! However, if it does thunder we will likely stop work anyway being as we're tree surgeons.

 

Edit: lovely autocorrect there, I starred it out an all!

Edited May 17, 2016 by Joey.G

[Dami]

Please spare a thought for poor thunderless dami too.

[William Grimsley]

1 hour ago, Stuart said:

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 18 May 2016 - 05:59 UTC Thu 19 May 2016

ISSUED 19:03 UTC Tue 17 May 2016

 

ISSUED BY: Chris

Post cold-frontal convection is expected to develop widely across the British Isles through Wednesday as an upper low and subsequent broad cold pool aloft will aid convection capable of producing a few lightning strikes across much of southern Scotland, eastern Ireland and northern and eastern England. However, overall instability will be weak, meaning the potential of lightning will remain low. 

 

The greatest potential for thunderstorms on Wednesday will be across the Welsh-English border and much of the West Midlands and parts of south-central and southwestern England. After the morning cold front clears eastwards cold air aloft will spread across the region and combined with some sunny spells/surface heating, CAPE values will reach 500-700 j/kg. Convection should initiate just before midday in the western edge of the SLGT area and shift eastwards through the afternoon. Overall shear remains relatively weak therefore showers and thunderstorms will be mainly of the pulse variety and thus severe weather and the chance of any significant hail is unlikely. Brief heavier downpours on ground that will have had rain earlier in the day could produce some very localised flash flooding, mainly in the SLGT region. 

 

All showers will be diurnal in nature and will become more isolated after 1800BST and fading away between 1900-2000BST. 

 

http://www.convective.weatherquest.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-05-18

WOW, I'm going to be travelling through the whole of that SLIGHT risk area tomorrow, let's hope I see something!

[IanR]

8 hours ago, Sparkiee storm said:

Metcheck has a thunderstorm advisory out, for NW England/Midlands and Wales tomorrow.

doubt any thunderstorm  for here tbh,  the amount of times the nw gets forcasted storm activity, only for other area s to steal them i have lost count now,    

[Speedway Slider]

Not a topic reply, but for the last few days, I have been getting the following message when opening Blitzortung on my android phone (see attached)

Geolocation Failed..??

Any ideas?? It does then go to the map, which has all the lightning on etc, but what's the Geolocation Failed Mularkey?

Cheers

Karl 

Edited May 18, 2016 by Speedway Slider

[Harry]

Sorry if this has been raised before, however there's a slither of interest for SE parts Saturday night into Sunday, but it is extremely marginal.

GFS 18z is modelling a build up of high CAPE/instability across N France, setting of thunderstorms which will track NE and could move across SE/London area Saturday night. 00z however has this missing entirely and travelling across Benelux. Worth keeping a cheeky eye on, but keeping in mind there's around 100 mile variation between the two models at present which could increase in the coming days.

Edited May 18, 2016 by Harry

[weather09]

ECM and UKMO-GM differ with GFS re. weekend- both having a more progressive pattern aloft which keeps potential to the continent.  Could become more favourable though.  Always find it useful putting the three outputs for a select period into separate tabs and flicking between the tabs in cases such as this, where the differences in outputs are relatively small but noticeable, as you can see more clearly the discrepancies between the models.  

[paul_montague]

Good luck to those wanting storms today including me.. Lets hope the Convective cauldron gets boiling soon.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

8 hours ago, Speedway Slider said:

Not a topic reply, but for the last few days, I have been getting the following message when opening Blitzortung on my android phone (see attached)

Geolocation Failed..??

Any ideas?? It does then go to the map, which has all the lightning on etc, but what's the Geolocation Failed Mularkey?

Cheers

Karl 

If the map has all the Lightning on then it can't be geolocating to the UK... 

mehehehehe

[Polar Maritime]

Heavy rain here just now.

Edited May 18, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[Gordon Webb]

yep cloud and showers around already , those who wanted a nice dry clear slot where the sun got to work to generate big showers I think are in for a dissapointment , not that those showers won't occur just not in the numbers some hope for

[Chris.R]

 It's been very sunny here for over an hour now. Any thoughts on  shower direction today? There seem to be  differences with height. 

Edited May 18, 2016 by Chris.R

[STORMGUY]

A slow moving shower here right now.

[DubWeatherAddict]

On 17 May 2016 at 11:04, knocker said:

Indeed

Do you have a link for that model output, looks quite nice , 

[Gordon Webb]

7 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 It's been very sunny here for over an hour now. Any thoughts on  shower direction today? There seem to be  differences with height. 

as you see by the radar the showers are already east of your location and are forecast to move eastwards during the afternoon so I think your chances are very slim

[Gordon Webb]

2 minutes ago, STORMGUY said:

A slow moving shower here right now.

the speed of the showers is what I think could be a concern as it could dump a lot of rain over a specirfic location

[Arnie Pie]

Looks from here as were in a convergence zone atm.....Slow moving cells not really knowing were their going

Convection begining to show

[Gordon Webb]

little line of showers south of oxford looks heaviesh

showers not all moving same direction some going E others going NE

if your planning to go out keep an eye on the radar so your not caught out seems prudent