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Storm risk - Monday 9th May onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
15 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

colder air filtering down from the north is interacting with the milder stuff still clinging to the south coast. expect by this afternoon even the south cost will be in the cooler air so doubt anything will occur today I'm afraid. those showers in Dorset are gradually sinking south now and will die out.

The milder air is hanging around till at least late evening judging by the movement of the cold front currently over the North Midlands. Storms are most likely going to be convergence/sea breeze based today, so coastal counties along the South may see some isolated developments. The one just to the south of Bournemouth is a great example, but as you noted, once off land these will fade.

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Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
2 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

Not sure that's a great judgement, but fair play. Normally, colder air interacting with moist humid air will trigger thunderstorms.

I think you misread what he said,

 

the moist humid air is moving away south and will soon exit the south coast being replaced by the cooler air coming down from the north, thus any thundery activity will occur further and further south as the warmer air pulls away

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
22 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

colder air filtering down from the north is interacting with the milder stuff still clinging to the south coast. expect by this afternoon even the south cost will be in the cooler air so doubt anything will occur today I'm afraid. those showers in Dorset are gradually sinking south now and will die out.

While the shower activity might not continue, I'm not seeing any cooler air pushing down this far South? The late afternoon is still expected to see temperatures of 21 and 22°C

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Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny, stormy and I don't dislike rain only cold
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia

Had a nice bright morning but now its starting to feel fresh here and the wind is picking up a little as forecast by GFS. Clouding over and becoming a little more dull.

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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Wight
  • Location: Isle of Wight

Feeling very warm and muggy here on the isle of wight, quite a bit of cloud bubbling up towards the east :)

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
2 hours ago, Mapantz said:

Wow - What a cock-up in the forecast! No rain mentioned yesterday, and 21°C yet it's 12°C and thundering. I have work to do!! 

It was in the forecast I watched on ITV

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

It was in the forecast I watched on ITV

Well, The BBC regional/national never mentioned anything, and none of the websites had anything remotely resembling showers, and especially not thunder and torrential rain. Hey ho.. the sun is out now, work can commence!

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

There was a storm forecast out from Convective-weather ( formally UKASF) for today as posted earlier. :-) 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk

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Posted
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
  • Location: Carmarthenshire

Currently under Carmarthen storm.  Torrential rain with frequent thunder here.  Unfortunately I don't have a good view from my office so not seen any lightning yet!

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
3 minutes ago, virtualsphere said:

Currently under Carmarthen storm.  Torrential rain with frequent thunder here.  Unfortunately I don't have a good view from my office so not seen any lightning yet!

Never even saw much if any potential over Wales, shows how it hard it is to forecast really.

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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

Ridiculously thundery over NE France again this afternoon. Large continental land masses seem to make so much of andifference. Very very rare we see anything like what they are having with numerous closely packed very active cells.

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Posted
  • Location: East Kilbride (Glasgow)
  • Location: East Kilbride (Glasgow)
4 minutes ago, Costa Del Fal said:

Ridiculously thundery over NE France again this afternoon. Large continental land masses seem to make so much of andifference. Very very rare we see anything like what they are having with numerous closely packed very active cells.

Indeed , absolutley incredible .. they have been getting pounded for the last 3-5 days , that cell to the East of Paris is an absolute belter , its just not fair. :( 

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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham
  • Location: Birmingham

Models developed marginal instability over S Wales, with support from breeze convergence, as indicated on recent obs in that region, resulting in the storm that's developed there. GFS/Euro4 modeled showers/storm(s) in that region as well, so shouldn't come as a surprise.  Though there are times the risk is that low and insignificant it's just not worth the detail.

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Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl

storm/s in west wales seem to be coming this way - can't believe they'd make it this far but you never know

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Posted
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
  • Location: Carmarthenshire

A few photos from this afternoon's storm - nothing spectacular as it was pretty much featureless grey rain underneath although the rainfall and thunder were impressive.  I don't think I was under the core of the storm as the radar rates went to the top of the scale, suggesting hail, and we only had rain.

20160513_165931.jpg

20160513_170520.jpg

You can just about make out towers building in the background of this one.  Instead of continuous rain, it eased off several times and then started again, so I think the storm may have been backbuilding with new cells forming as the old passed over and eased.  

20160513_165918.jpg

Minor flash flooding in Tesco

20160513_190004.jpg

Nice rainbow on my way home afterwards from a new showers towards Swansea.

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
3 hours ago, andymusic said:

storm/s in west wales seem to be coming this way - can't believe they'd make it this far but you never know

Yeah, they were going nowhere near you. LOL.

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

After a disappointing cool down, there looks to be something of a more standard affair on the horizon. Potential for some half decent homegrown stuff with associated Atlantic lows moving in. 

A good time of the year to get the best out of diurnal heating. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy and thundery.
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
12 hours ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

After a disappointing cool down, there looks to be something of a more standard affair on the horizon. Potential for some half decent homegrown stuff with associated Atlantic lows moving in. 

A good time of the year to get the best out of diurnal heating. 

I like this alot.

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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham
  • Location: Birmingham

Yes, some potential mid-week as small upper low over Atlantic moves ESE across country Weds, cooling the mid-levels over S'ern/SW'ern parts with profile becoming unstable to sfc heating there. Doesn't look like shear will be a player on this one, with jet winds rounding base of the trough away from coolest mid-levels under core of the upper low. 

Might be more chances over weekend if troughing and cold mid-levels pushes over country, but too uncertain this far out.  Unfortunately, apart from a few hints far out on GFS, no strong signal for strong ridge building to our E/NE on medium-range modeling. so looks like late month at the earliest for the real potential.  

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Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire

I'm a bit confused about Wednesday.

The BBC forecast at 13.30 seemed to show Wednesday as a washout for most of Southern England, then the local forecast showed the icon for Wednesday as thunderstorms. If it was the latter I would expect at least a dry start to the day after the overnight front with warm sunshine helping big showers etc to develop from mid morning (as weather09 mentions).

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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham
  • Location: Birmingham

Recent synoptic outputs have occluded fronts pushing east during morning, clearing away east around midday/early afternoon.  Might be residual cloud hampering instability build-up for a while over regions of interest, but looks like general clearing will follow allowing sun to get to work during afternoon to develop the few 100J/kg CAPE modeled by GFS.   

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Definitely a shout for some thundery activity across SW/Midlands/CS England tomorrow.

While completely fantasy land territory, GFS suggesting first proper plume opportunities through the last week of May.

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