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Storm risk - Monday 9th May onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Ramsey, Minnesota (USA)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/Snow/Hail & Strong Winds
  • Location: Ramsey, Minnesota (USA)

That storm has gone mad with precipitation and lightning, wow!

The one south of Exeter 

Edited by MattTarrant
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Posted
  • Location: BRISTOL
  • Location: BRISTOL

Showers/cells are moving in the wrong direction for me to see anything thundery, hazy sunshine now a few Tcu but i honestly dont see anything happening here expecting a dry evening/night but if something unexpected wants to happen great but i doubt it.

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Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon

Nice storm to the SW.. could see nice convection that formed it, in fact that passed pretty much overhead before it formed. Sadly, can barely see it through the haze and only heard 1 rumble above the ambient noise of agricultural machinery etc..

Now have to hope stuff develops to the NE and/or propagates from that Weymouth cell.. don't really like how there's not a sniff of Cumulus to the east/NE though.

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

my old man just phoned up to tell me he's having a cracking storm down in Newton Abbot....my sis, over in Brixham can hear the rumbles from it

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
3 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

my old man just phoned up to tell me he's having a cracking storm down in Newton Abbot....my sis, over in Brixham can hear the rumbles from it

Got a feeling William is on the hunt for it!

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
6 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Got a feeling William is on the hunt for it!

I know the roads down there very well....it'll take him well over an hour to get to Newton Abbot....storm will be long gone by then

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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham
  • Location: Birmingham

Looks like an overshooting top on that storm(s) just moving offshore now looking at recent satellite imagery.  Just shows how quickly the updraft accelerated.  Be good to see some pics of those cells from a good vantage point.  

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Posted
  • Location: Highworth (122m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and a cracking thunderstorm
  • Location: Highworth (122m ASL)
1 minute ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Never want to boast, but for a beginner (noob) experimental forecaster like myself this was a well made forecast!

well made.jpg

Nicely done, Ben. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
16 minutes ago, weather09 said:

Looks like an overshooting top on that storm(s) just moving offshore now looking at recent satellite imagery.  Just shows how quickly the updraft accelerated.  Be good to see some pics of those cells from a good vantage point.  

could well be...

 

Untitled1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

Genuinely the biggest drops of rain I have ever seen. Ran the 10 seconds to my car, may as well have leapt into a swimming pool. Some very decent flahes and claps to boot.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 13 May 2016 - 05:59 UTC Sat 14 May 2016

ISSUED 18:22 UTC Thu 12 May 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

A sharpening upper trough will dig southwards across the North Sea, while a surface cold front slides southwestwards across Britain through Friday. Ahead of this front, sufficient insolation and sea breeze convergence will be the main trigger for isolated showers with a couple of thunderstorms possible, particularly close to southern coasts in the highlighted areas where onshore flow / convergence is maximised.

Lapse rates are a little steeper, but dewpoints lower, compared with Thursday so overall lightning frequency will probably be less per individual shower/storm in comparison. DLS does increase, though, from the north later as a northerly jet digs in around the western periphery of the upper trough. Overall severe threat is quite minimal, with perhaps just some small hail from the most intense cores, with the main threat being minor surface water issues from heavy downpours.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-05-13

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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham
  • Location: Birmingham

Yeah, if you click through the individual frames on HD mode you can see the top flattening out with a small protrusion in the middle of the cloud.  Storms with overshooting tops are usually taken as an indication that the storm is severe, though just rapid upward motion can cause updraft momentum to exceed the equilibrium level, not necessarily the case that this storm is, or any storm has to be, severe. 

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Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 13 May 2016 - 05:59 UTC Sat 14 May 2016

ISSUED 18:22 UTC Thu 12 May 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

A sharpening upper trough will dig southwards across the North Sea, while a surface cold front slides southwestwards across Britain through Friday. Ahead of this front, sufficient insolation and sea breeze convergence will be the main trigger for isolated showers with a couple of thunderstorms possible, particularly close to southern coasts in the highlighted areas where onshore flow / convergence is maximised.

 

Lapse rates are a little steeper, but dewpoints lower, compared with Thursday so overall lightning frequency will probably be less per individual shower/storm in comparison. DLS does increase, though, from the north later as a northerly jet digs in around the western periphery of the upper trough. Overall severe threat is quite minimal, with perhaps just some small hail from the most intense cores, with the main threat being minor surface water issues from heavy downpours.

 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-05-13

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Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon

I can confirm that William is at home but can't post here due to his posting limit, though not too amused at recent developments of course.

This was the back of the convection that formed that cell between Exmouth and Torbay earlier. Though by the time it was at peak intensity you could hardly make it out through the haze.

P1050838.JPGP1050845.JPG

Can sort of make out convection to the east/NE of here now but not too inspiring and not sure if it will do it, it's my last chance of something close/overhead anyway. 

Edited by Evening thunder
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Posted
  • Location: torbay-exeter
  • Weather Preferences: after the last year not rain rain & more rain!
  • Location: torbay-exeter

Storm clouds over Newton Abbot curtisey of me and my Brampton on way home

1463079607664-1518271858.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: torbay-exeter
  • Weather Preferences: after the last year not rain rain & more rain!
  • Location: torbay-exeter

Sausage f#&#%@%&@ predictive text.... brompton

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
1 hour ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Never want to boast, but for a beginner (noob) experimental forecaster like myself this was a well made forecast!

well made.jpg

good bit of subtle boasting there

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
1 minute ago, Gordon Webb said:

good bit of subtle boasting there

Watch it;)

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
32 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:

I can confirm that William is at home but can't post here due to his posting limit, though not too amused at recent developments of course.

This was the back of the convection that formed that cell between Exmouth and Torbay earlier. Though by the time it was at peak intensity you could hardly make it out through the haze.

P1050838.JPGP1050845.JPG

Can sort of make out convection to the east/NE of here now but not too inspiring and not sure if it will do it, it's my last chance of something close/overhead anyway. 

probably busy sweeping broken china and maybe a keyboard or 2

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Posted
  • Location: BRISTOL
  • Location: BRISTOL
1 hour ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Never want to boast, but for a beginner (noob) experimental forecaster like myself this was a well made forecast!

well made.jpg

Fairplay to you Ben take my hat off to you.

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Posted
  • Location: Sturminster Newton (N. Dorset)
  • Weather Preferences: Fair Weather, Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Sturminster Newton (N. Dorset)

Pretty gutted that storm went just south of me earlier. I decided not to chase as it looked as though my home location would get something. Oh well, bring on the next plume!

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Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex

thought Colchester had a few rumbles just the other week

was talking to a friend of mine at the time over that way (I'm Chelmsford)

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