Storm risk - Monday 9th May onwards

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EURO4 really not keen on the shower idea..

 

It was spot on yesterday 

 

[William Grimsley]

1 minute ago, Surrey said:

EURO4 really not keen on the shower idea..

 

It was spot on yesterday 

 

Rubbish.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Just now, William Grimsley said:

Rubbish.

You have jinxed it now haha

 

There is some high cloud here now blocking the Sun out  

[William Grimsley]

Still fidling with the Nest cam live stream view currently. So, expect disconnections for a bit.

Looking good now.

Edited May 12, 2016 by William Grimsley

[A.J]

Just now, William Grimsley said:

Rubbish.

erm William, are referring to the model output or the poster?....either way, your reply is a bit abrupt!

 

anyhoos, it's interesting to note that the Euro4 output and the in-house NMM hi-res are rather at odds in the placement and intensity of shower development as the following chart shows..

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Sat certainly shows a lot of high level cloud bubbling up moving west.. I really hope this don't spoil the party for others!

http://en.sat24.com/en/gb/visual

 

Right when you don't need it too 

[William Grimsley]

Just now, ajpoolshark said:

erm William, are referring to the model output or the poster?....either way, your reply is a bit abrupt!

The model output.

[A.J]

Just now, William Grimsley said:

The model output.

thank goodness for that! 

[Arnie Pie]

2 hours ago, knocker said:

That's an impressive looking garden.

And a great place for live stream......Big sky, framed by a couple of large trees, which are always a good way of showing wind strengths

Edited May 12, 2016 by Arnie Pie

[NO LONGER POSTING]

2 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

thank goodness for that! 

I mean, who could think I talk rubbish.. 

[William Grimsley]

8 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

thank goodness for that! 

Oh course it would be that, it's not what we want (or I) to see, is it?

Others on another forum think that there's no chance now because the sun has appeared too late in the day!

Edited May 12, 2016 by William Grimsley

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Go on, my go!

 

[Ben Sainsbury]

Not really much going on here, but feeling very warm, bright and barely a cloud in the sky!

[ztam]

Some nice convection bubbling up here on the isle of wight, Still hazy in some areas, but sun is burning it off.. 

[Wilxy]

After the washout of the last few days it's a lovely day today shame it's coming to a end but at least I had a storm from this spell of warmth so no complaints from me

[Wilxy]

I do think showers will form later this afternoon if the conditions are like this further along the south coasts where wind convergence is more likely could be a interesting evening 

[Ben Sainsbury]

36 minutes ago, tomjwlx said:

I do think showers will form later this afternoon if the conditions are like this further along the south coasts where wind convergence is more likely could be a interesting evening 

Just a matter of time for heat to build and the showers to set off, got a few precip in far south, will help set off these showers!

According to some on external websites, the first cell is expected to form in Exeter as a result of dirnual heating and convergence!

Edited May 12, 2016 by Ben Sainsbury

[Mapantz]

Strangely enough, I'm about to pass the warmest day of the year here. The humidity is dropping and a nice breeze has developed.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Shower fired right on the South coast well further East than expected and not really doing much 

[Arnie Pie]

Those South coast showers look good on @manpantz stream anyhow

Edited May 12, 2016 by Arnie Pie

[TropicThunder]

Gone quite dark to the East of here and clouded over now.

[Ben Sainsbury]

Plenty of huge towering cumulus moving SW here, all good signs!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Towering cumulus to the SE in huntingdon, heading SW'wards, eventually they'll hopefully reach William as raging CB's with tennis ball sized hail, tornadoes and the lot  

 

portsdown hill just sparked that shower off by the looks of it! 

Edited May 12, 2016 by East_England_Stormchaser91

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yep it's trying now !  

[TropicThunder]

Sky to my south now looking quite thundery, and first sferics detected!