Storm risk - Monday 9th May onwards

[Milocation]

1 minute ago, Wet'n'Dry said:

I took a look outside and the few clouds here are going East to West. No chance of the French storms making landfall in the S/E UK.

Seen it all before, no Kent clipper, No Thames streamer so time for bed children!!!

 

crying inside already

[Mapantz]

4 minutes ago, LimoPreacherman said:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#extra-uk-content bbc predictions show it will be blown west when it meets the coast, it'll only skim the UK South coast, hope they are wrong!

 I mentioned that earlier, the modelling has had a pretty good handle on it. I think some are getting a bit over-excited.

[Milocation]

Just now, Mapantz said:

 I mentioned that earlier, the modelling has had a pretty good handle on it. I think some are getting a bit over-excited.

(-_-)

[Harry]

Small detail but we also want it to keep electrical potency...I had heavy rain last night lol

[legritter]

will be very interesting if that mass of action does make it to our shores ,fairly confident it could but seems to be very slow moving and i,m at great pain to how far north and west it will get ,heres hoping but my kneck of the woods ,somerset would need a good throw of the dice ,lets hope that some of us get some good action tonight ,cheers .

[Milocation]

and so the crossing begins

[NickMdx]

god speed little thunderstorm!

[Hirudine]

I dunno, it does seem to be struggling to get off the coast. One can only hope!

[Spikecollie]

Steady on! These might be rather hydrophobic storms, but we'll see...

[macuk83]

going to be to at least 2130 before it hits land

Edited May 11, 2016 by macuk83

[Milocation]

1 minute ago, macuk83 said:

going to be to at least 2230 before it hits land

That is if it even hits land

[Spikecollie]

Le Touquet airport has a METAR of "orage moderé". They may or may not make it across. It's early season. I'm not disappointed with my few rumbles. My storm season here in Haute Vienne is proper summer! Bon courage les anglais!

[Mapantz]

To help you get an idea on steering, overlay the 850 upper wind vectors on the radar..

[paul_montague]

Strikes in Channel now.

[TropicThunder]

19 minutes ago, LimoPreacherman said:

Do you think it will go anywhere near me???

Tbh it looks most likely to go south of you but who knows.  I still don't expect there to be much electrical activity by the time it reaches these shores anyway, though there could be some very heavy rain for some.

[Milocation]

Just now, TropicThunder said:

Tbh it looks most likely to go south of you but who knows.  I still don't expect there to be much electrical activity by the time it reaches these shores anyway, though there could be some very heavy rain for some.

Thanks

[macuk83]

might be lucky if it clips the IOW

[Wet'n'Dry]

1 minute ago, macuk83 said:

going to be to at least 2230 before it hits land

It's certainly dragging its heels.

I've been watching it since 16:00, it's slowly tracked North but seems to be back building taking advantage of surface heating.

I would be surprised it it makes it across the channel, and the latest sferic S/E of Eastbourne is probably a glitch!!

[Spikecollie]

I don't want to preempt things but you might just be "striking" lucky...

[Milocation]

The storm furthest west seems to be struggling if u look at the rate of strikes on land and the rate on the channel

http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime?lang=en#y=50.3732;x=2.3322;z=9;t=1;m=sat;r=0;s=15;d=2;a=2;dc=0;o=0;n=0;dl=2;

 

[Milocation]

Just now, Spikecollie said:

I don't want to preempt things but you might just be "striking" lucky...

did you hear about the chickens that got blown away, that was foul weather!

[Spikecollie]

Someone in Kent should be able to see something...Give the poor little things credit, they're trying!

[paul_montague]

1 minute ago, macuk83 said:

might be lucky if it clips the IOW

I live in hope lol

 

[Spikecollie]

Go little bunnies go!!! They're trying...

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 12 May 2016 - 05:59 UTC Fri 13 May 2016

ISSUED 18:53 UTC Wed 11 May 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

Remnant convection will likely be ongoing across S / SW England first thing on Thursday morning, this clearing westwards to give sufficient insolation to develop isolated showers, more especially late afternoon into the early evening where low-level convergence (onshore flow plus topographical forcing) aids development. Forecast profiles suggest drying and warming aloft from the east through the day, therefore limiting depth of convection and resulting with the deepest instability becoming increasingly confined to the far SW. 

Lapse rates are once again fairly poor, despite high CAPE values forecast given relatively high dewpoints, and hence lightning will be fairly isolated (generally sub-SLGT criteria) with the main threat being local flash flooding from slow-moving heavy downpours in a high PWAT environment (high 20s mm). The strongest cells may perhaps produce hail up to 1.0cm in diameter, while relatively low LCLs and low-level convergence could once again produce a couple of funnels / weak tornadoes. Isolated elevated convection may affect parts of SE England on Thursday night.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-05-12