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Storm risk - Monday 9th May onwards

Harry

By Harry
in Storms & Severe Weather

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Spikecollie Accomplished

Spikecollie

Posted
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny with night time t-storms
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
Posted

Those little storms off Dieppe are trying to get channel bound right now. Wish them luck and safe passage!

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Wivenswold Community Regular

Wivenswold

Posted
  • Location: Wivenhoe, North East Essex, 2m asl
  • Location: Wivenhoe, North East Essex, 2m asl
Posted

I'll be very surprised if they survive such a long crossing to Essex.

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steve86 Apprentice

steve86

Posted
  • Location: Waterlooville
  • Location: Waterlooville
Posted

I think it's bust for us on the south coast or are there supposed to be developments tonight or those showers over N.France get a shifty on over this way? I'm not sure even the showers know what their plans are! Lol

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

I could well be wrong, but I think the electrical activity is likely to wane if those showers make it along to Southern counties. It's unlikely that there's anything to tap into, that stays over France and diminishes as well. The risk was low anyway..

I managed 7.2mm from the downpour earlier, which is a bonus as it has been very dry here for the last four weeks.

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steve86 Apprentice

steve86

Posted
  • Location: Waterlooville
  • Location: Waterlooville
Posted
1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

I could well be wrong, but I think the electrical activity is likely to wane if those showers make it along to Southern counties. It's unlikely that there's anything to tap into, that stays over France and diminishes as well. The risk was low anyway..

I managed 7.2mm from the downpour earlier, which is a bonus as it has been very dry here for the last four weeks.

Yeah probably least you had a more "productive" day than we did. We had light rain for a bit that then made everything foggy and warm. Then the sun popped out for a short while. 

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 11 May 2016 - 05:59 UTC Thu 12 May 2016

ISSUED 19:21 UTC Tue 10 May 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

Large upper low west of Biscay will begin to flatten and expand W-E on Wednesday. At the surface, a slow-moving frontal boundary will tend to stall across northern England / north Wales. To the south of this boundary, slack flow (with local convergence zones) and developing insolation, in an environment with steepening lapse rates, will generate a few scattered slow-moving showers and thunderstorms. That said, lapse rates are marginally improved on Tuesdays, but still would prefer to see higher lapse rates for more frequent lightning potential.

DLS is weak and so any showers/storms that do develop will be poorly organised, limiting their severe potential significantly. However, given moist air mass (PWAT in upper 20s mm) and considering slow storm motion, then greatest risk will be from minor surface water flooding from prolonged downpours. Hail locally up to 1.5cm in diameter is possible from any stronger cores, and given low LCLs and some wind convergence, a couple of reports of funnels / weak tornadoes will be possible.

Attention is also given to showers/thunderstorms that may develop over the BeNeLux countries during Wednesday, as these may drift westwards to affect parts of East Anglia / SE England during the early hours of Thursday, albeit while probably weakening as they drift across the North Sea. Most NWP suggests an increase in elevated convection developing over the North Sea and drifting into North Yorkshire during Wednesday night.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-05-11

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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

the showers/decaying storms over Northern France are slowly creeping towards southern most counties of England.....By my calculations they should make landfall in the early hours of the morning............................

 

 

 

 

 

......on the 11th May 2025 :80:

Edited by ajpoolshark
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Hodgheg Community Regular

Hodgheg

Posted
  • Location: Near Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Severe storms and heavy snow
  • Location: Near Hull
Posted
2 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

the showers/decaying storms over Northern France are slowly creeping towards southern most counties of England.....By my calculations they should make landfall in the early hours of the morning............................

 

 

 

 

 

......on the 11th May 2025 :80:

They could always leave a wonderful veil of cloud for tomorrow. Oh well heres to the next (proper) plume event.

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Muffelchen Enthusiast

Muffelchen

Posted
  • Location: Beverley, E Yorks, 19m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder - not necessarily at the same time!
  • Location: Beverley, E Yorks, 19m ASL
Posted

Pluming eck! Another washout.... Only May though......

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Ǝssex Ǝasterly Seasoned

Ǝssex Ǝasterly

Posted
  • Location: Benfleet, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow events / Wind storms
  • Location: Benfleet, Essex
Posted (edited)

The radar bugged out on me, and is now showing the biggest rainfall area in history :shok:

At that size and speed it's going to be raining for about a week :p

 

chat.png

Edited by Essex Easterly.
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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Author
Posted

Worth noting that the mass of storms in the Med was not forecast by Estofex 

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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted
12 minutes ago, Harry said:

Worth noting that the mass of storms in the Med was not forecast by Estofex 

Surprising really. Given the strength of the jet down there overlapping with all the energy generated, there was bound to be something erupt! That is the ingredient we are missing, the jet stream/shear. 

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Cornishdave Apprentice

Cornishdave

Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm
  • Location: Exeter, Devon
Posted

First French import in Exeter, made it intact across the channel and really got going when it hit the cold air.....

 

in the fridge!!! Screwtop as well from cite de Europe in Calais lol!!! 

image.jpeg

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Spikecollie Accomplished

Spikecollie

Posted
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny with night time t-storms
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
Posted

Enjoy it! There's always next time...! Those little guys/gals couldn't make it tonight

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Stormyking Rising Star

Stormyking

Posted
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight
Posted

Quick question guys, I normaly know my storms and stuff quite well, but am needing some information for Tomorrow's potential, personally I think it looks really good, but got a funny feeling theres gonna be alot of cloud around too, me and my friend are planning a chase on the mainland towards areas like Somerset/Devon way, its a bit trickier as we gotta think of boat fair too.

 

If one of the other pros has a bit more information that would be very much appreciated (I know nothing is definite) just to know whether its worth it or not!

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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

more isolated heavy showers just starting to break out to the south and south west of London, tracking WNW......interesting

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Biggin Rising Star

Biggin

Posted
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
Posted

Yeah Paul, posted such in the SE thread but they all gone to bed ;)

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