2016 Arctic Sea Ice Minimum Prediction Thread - May

[BornFromTheVoid]

This is the 2nd sea ice minimum poll of the summer. The previous poll, posted on April 5th, had an average of 3.48 million km2 after 16 votes.

At the moment, we appear to still be lowest on record going by most area and extent calculations, and lowest or 2nd lowest by volume. Unfortunately, there was an issue with on the sensors used for calculating the NSIDC extent values used here, so we may not have NSIDC extent data for a few months.

Here are the daily minima since 2000, and the 80s and 90s averages.

 80s     6.963
 90s     6.423
2000    5.943
2001    6.567
2002    5.625
2003    5.969
2004    5.770
2005    5.314
2006    5.746
2007    4.147
2008    4.548
2009    5.047
2010    4.590
2011    4.333
2012    3.340
2013    5.040
2014    4.988
2015    4.341

As always, voting is set to private.

[BornFromTheVoid]

I voted 3.0-3.2C, so a new record by a small amount.

I don't expect the weather to continue as on as bad as it's been over the last few months, but with the ice as fragile and volume as low as it is, I think something close to a new record is very likely.

[knocker]

Well I'm pessimistic so 2.8-3.0

[reef]

I think another record low looks likely. I too went for 2.8-3.0.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think we might get a favourable summer for ice retention (just a hunch, admittedly) so I went for 3.4-3.6.  I think that's near the high end of the range of plausible possibilities though, given where we currently stand.

[Styx]

I haven't kept up with the technical discussions but I'm so jaded with what's going on around me I have opted for the 2.6-2.8 range.  

[Gray-Wolf]

i'm with you Styx! I think that a wicked bad start to the season is worse than a wicked bad end to the season and we are amid a wicked bad start to the season and that looks set to continue for the short term? instead of melt pools we have big stretches of open water in Beaufort and many peripheral areas.

I'm still wowed with the 80 to 1 stat so the prospect of open water this year has me tweeked! ( 1 gram of ice takes 80 calories to melt, 1 gram of water takes 1 calorie to raise its temp 1c!!! )

With the world still seeing near record high temps and the north still seeing record temps broken as spring unfolds I am concerned that we will see some extreme episodes over the season to come and with ice so challenged already ( thin ice all over the place and thick ice waiting for Fram) we will see big losses.

We still , I believe, not seen a full season of high melt export forcings since 07'. Even a season with 70% positive forcings for melt ( like the 4 seasons we have had since 07' showing 70% retentive for ice weathers?) so we also need to remain 'lucky' to avoid setting records again this year.

[Singularity]

Well, the to-ing and fro-ing of patterns as the atmosphere oscillates in response to El Niño/La Nina forcing interplay (see Tamaras excellent MOD contribution today) is one that promotes large movements of air masses both in and out of the Arctic. Imagine for example strong mid latitude ridges pumping warm air north and then a transition to high latitude blocking taking that warm air to the Arctic.

Despite such an alarming imagination, I hesitate to punt for much below the 3 million mark. Though I still wonder if feedbacks could mean that the lower the extent goes, the faster it keeps going. How does the far greater energy uptake by the water stack up against the reduced solar radiation as the ice edge retreats toward the pole?

Edited May 7, 2016 by Singularity
Typo *Shock Horror*

[reef]

I think this is the year we'll really find out whether ice extent is most dependent on summer synoptics or what happens in the previous winter. We've had a record mild winter in the Arctic so you'd think that even an 'average' summer would lead to significant melt. If that doesn't occur then it would probably mean that ice losses are more reliant on summer synoptics with what happens during the winter having an effect but not being the be all and end all.

Time will tell I guess. If we get a 'cool' Arctic summer and losses are still significant then it points to a continuation of the gradual reduction in ice on average as the years pass due to the Arctic warming proportionally more in winter (and significantly so since around 2004).

[BornFromTheVoid]

After 13 votes the average is down to 3.1 million km2, a new record low.

[sundog]

I voted just now and i would agree with born ,a new record but only by a small amount. 3.0-3.2

[BornFromTheVoid]

A few days left with this poll before the new one is opened. The average after 18 votes is on 3.11 million km2, with a big cluster of 10 votes at just under 3 million km2.

[Gray-Wolf]

We probably will not see much change in voting over June?

Depending on what June brings though we might be forced to reconsider our votes come July?

By July we should be getting a 'feeling' for how the season is progressing?

[stewfox]

The links not working again ? have they been moved ?

 

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/vishop-extent.html?N

[BornFromTheVoid]

3 minutes ago, stewfox said:

The links not working again ? have they been moved ?

 

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/vishop-extent.html?N

Hardware issue. Should be back up and fully updated soon.

[joggs]

2.9-3.1

[BornFromTheVoid]

I'll be putting up the new poll tomorrow and hopefully locking this one, so last chance to vote!