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End of the week & weekend storm risk

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32 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I'm not seeing much potential overnight..

Also, it looks like ending tomorrow for our neck of the woods- cloudy and outbreaks of rain. It looks drab in comparison to the last few days. Tuesday doesn't look much better either.

Check the NMM run, that will show you. I somehow doubt that all the rain that will have originated from the continent under a theta plume will be unelectrified, I think there will be some lightning over the next few days but in no way am I expecting actual thunderstorms, but yes no lightning is underplaying it by a fair margin.

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1 minute ago, Frosty hollows said:

Some beefy looking showers in the channel atm

I think that's anaprop. 

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Heathrow taf now showing prob30 showers of rain. Edit: that's actually for tomorrow

Edited by John Hodgson

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4 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

Check the NMM run, that will show you. I somehow doubt that all the rain that will have originated from the continent under a theta plume will be unelectrified, I think there will be some lightning over the next few days but in no way am I expecting actual thunderstorms, but yes no lightning is underplaying it by a fair margin.

What you need to appreciate is that just because there is a relatively high PWAT flow of air, this is not in my view a true 'plume'. A true plume in the sense we discuss originates from a precise area of Iberia, nice firm dry lid of air over warm and humid air leading to significant instability. This is not what we have here in my view, nor is it even THAT humid - to me it is very warm, but in no way resembles a 'thundery plume'. Looking at the mid levels, on the Kent coast at least, it reminds of a nice Spanish late spring day - I'm not seeing any sign of instability at all (not that I'm located in a hot spot to be fair).

For the last few days I have been reluctant about the coverage of storms and have always favoured isolated outbreaks across Midlands/Wales/NW England...based on how yesterday played, the atmosphere is probably less unstable than the models would suggest and therefore I favour the reserved positions being taken.

So...sorry William, but on Mapantz' side of the fence and thinking lightning coverage will be lower than we may have thought early/mid week.

On the plus side, with increases in frontal/trough features in the coming days, together with a fall in pressure, lightning coverage will increase. But, it will be a full on case of now casting as it is clear both the MetO and Beeb are very unsure as to the timing of fronts and troughs and therefore whether storms will be likely, where, when etc.

If the conditions fall nicely, ie a period of surface heating, nice build of instability, with a front/trough engaging at the right time, a decent thunderstorm or two could be possible. BUT, as I allude to, the whats, whys and wherefores are all up in the air.

Be glad, our true season hasn't even yet started so anything is a bonus (historically, late May is the period where true plumes with viable imports which both the SE and SW often rely on, become viable)

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Well, I've been quietly watching the radars hoping against hope that a storm or two will show up over my area. Other weather channels are downplaying any flashes and bangs but Netweather is actually upping the chance. I'll put my faith in Netweather although, no doubt, it will all come to SFA! I could be wrong but I think the Solway Firth has a lot to do with storms diminishing as they reach us, but I know next to nothing about this stuff.:pardon:

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Current obs:

temp:  23.0°C 

DP:  14.8°C 

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Nice big bubbly clouds all swinging north east from me :nea:

 

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@Harry, thanks for the excellent explanation.

I think we'll just have to wait and see, I just don't think it's over yet especially after the unstable looking skies here that I photographed and you acknowledged, this morning. It's all a nowcasting game now and even though looking at charts isn't a bad idea, they probably won't help at this stage anyway. Good luck, everyone.

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I'm ruling nothing out, William, I'm no authority on weather. I have however closely watched thundery events for the last 12 years (and enjoyed them for longer than that) and have seen FAR FAR better setups produce nothing - on balance of probabilities I'm just trying to shape expectations, certainly not telling you or anyone else there won't be thunder either today or beyond.

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36 minutes ago, steve86 said:

I think that's anaprop. 

I believe it is too, it's been around for a few days - still haven't got used to it... quick glance and I think *yay*, two seconds later, "Oh, anaprop" *glum face*. 

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2 minutes ago, Dale Hay said:

I believe it is too, it's been around for a few days - still haven't got used to it... quick glance and I think *yay*, two seconds later, "Oh, anaprop" *glum face*. 

Yeah same here lol especially as it's not a million miles away from me. But hey its warm the suns out and bbq weather so not a bad deal if no storms! 

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hot, sunny, bbq, beer, agitated Cu field.......bliss :D

 

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Just hit  25°C here now

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11 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Just hit  25°C here now

How does the sky look over there? Slightly hazy with bits of high level cloud appearing and disappearing sums it up here.

Central Wales looking like the current hotspot with satellite imagery showing some decent clouds there.

Edited by Convective

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24'c here, 2'c above what was forecasted! Nice cumulus up to my NW!

image.jpeg

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24.7C here and its lovely, as Ben mentioned cumulus clouds to my N and a clear sky to my south.

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15 minutes ago, Convective said:

How does the sky look over there? Slightly hazy with bits of high level cloud appearing and disappearing sums it up here.

Central Wales looking like the current hotspot with satellite imagery showing some decent clouds there.

 

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2 hours ago, knocker said:

MUCAPE 1600z

ens_meanmucape_17.png

That explains the cas that's appearing probably.

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Quote a bit of AcCas her at the mo, streaming NW. Not expecting anything but interesting nonetheless.....

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Just seen the weather forecast, need to start a new thread, Start of the week and midweek storm risk:blink2:

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Well...just clapped my eyes on these off the Kent coast...now these are "towers" lol- and the sky is looking increasingly unstable further out to the east beyond these. Shame I'm not staying here on the coast this evening.

image.jpeg

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