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End of the week & weekend storm risk

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Not really sure what happened last night, no lightning strikes were detected around here, except for a few in the Bristol Channel. To be honest, I think there was too much high level cloud around. We did get a bit of rain though, but without thunder that's just pointless in a plume.

Anyway, a very warm and humid start to the day here. I don't think anything is forecast to hit here today, but you never know. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if we get some thunderstorms through tomorrow afternoon and evening looking at the BBC Weather forecast.

Edited by William Grimsley

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So, more Altocumulus Castellanus cloud is now moving in from the SSE here. We've had so much of it that past few days but the appearence of it hasn't allowed thunderstorms to develop, which I thought was quite strange. It seems you shouldn't get excited over this type of cloud if you want a thunderstorm. LOL.

Looking S:

image.jpeg

Edited by William Grimsley

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I was genuinely surprised that the stuff near you late last night didn't give a light show....intense echoes on the radar...here's a screenshot from said time courtesy of NWx

 

Untitled.png

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Indeed, based on the intensity of the returns and the precedent for the day in terms of lightning, I'm surprised it didn't spark more. Having said that, instability towards the SW has consistently looked on the low end and so on that basis I'm not too surprised.

BBC increasingly silent on the risk of ANY showers/storms in the UK today. 

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49 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

So, more Altocumulus Castellanus cloud is now moving in from the SSE here. We've had so much of it that past few days but the appearence of it hasn't allowed thunderstorms to develop, which I thought was quite strange. It seems you shouldn't get excited over this type of cloud if you want a thunderstorm. LOL.

Looking S:

image.jpeg

Lovely picture - those clouds would have my attention to be fair.

Will be interesting to see how the fronts/troughs to the south begin to influence proceedings. Need to be guarded against the frontal mess dampening down potential. MetO thinking for tomorrow is that the incoming rain from the south will initially start moderate turning increasingly heavy and thundery through the day.

 

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12 minutes ago, Harry said:

Lovely picture - those clouds would have my attention to be fair.

Will be interesting to see how the fronts/troughs to the south begin to influence proceedings. Need to be guarded against the frontal mess dampening down potential. MetO thinking for tomorrow is that the incoming rain from the south will initially start moderate turning increasingly heavy and thundery through the day.

 

Thanks, Harry. I really appreciate it. As always, you can watch my Nest cam live stream here, if you want to see more of the clouds: https://video.nest.com/live/OIJL3I

I hope something thundery comes out of the next few days, even just a rumble would be good, but obviously more is better.

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Some lightning returns have sprung up to our SE offshore, our area forecast for possible rain showers/thunderstorm in next hour or two. Interesting to see if it transpires.

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1 hour ago, William Grimsley said:

 

image.jpeg

Now that's more like it!......seeing a cloudscape like that at 8am would definitely have my interest, better in fairness than the Ac, Ci mix photos from a day or two ago :)

 

really am unsure about today's risk...there seems to be more potential energy around today, more instability around both near the surface and in the mid-levels, lapse rates are high, and the atmosphere certainly is moist....The midlands had their shout yesterday, let's see if southern counties can get in on the action (although it should be noted that as per yesterday, the NMM model in particular has the highest cape values M4 corridor northwards with zones of surface convergence in the same area)

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Well everything died 40 miles to the south of me yesterday which considering I  was supposed to be in somewhat of a sweet spot was a little disappointing. Everything was just too slow moving.  I like the look of today, but it seems we will have to break a cap first. 

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15 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

Now that's more like it!......seeing a cloudscape like that at 8am would definitely have my interest, better in fairness than the Ac, Ci mix photos from a day or two ago :)

 

really am unsure about today's risk...there seems to be more potential energy around today, more instability around both near the surface and in the mid-levels, lapse rates are high, and the atmosphere certainly is moist....The midlands had their shout yesterday, let's see if southern counties can get in on the action (although it should be noted that as per yesterday, the NMM model in particular has the highest cape values M4 corridor northwards with zones of surface convergence in the same area)

Didn't think you'd be interested in commenting on my post, so I'm overwhelmed that you think my post was good quality, thanks very much! To be honest, it's more Altocumulus cloud now rather than Altocumulus Castellanus, so not sure what risk there is today but it certainly does look better as you've said. We shall have to see.

Edited by William Grimsley
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Don't think heating will be a problem today,highest temperatures in the country forcast around here today 

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Just checked the NMM model, shows some heavy and possibly thundery showers moving through the area this evening. We're having a BBQ so this wouldn't be brilliant (though as you've guessed I'd prefer thunder to a BBQ). LOL. However, as we move through tomorrow evening and overnight, some real thunderstorms start breaking out widely across Cornwall and the south coast of Devon and Dorset. This could be an interesting upcoming 48 hours.

The Dew Point hit 14.0°C just a few minutes ago here!

It's such a shame that all this thundery heat as to end on Friday...

Edited by William Grimsley

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yep, sun is out now, warming up nicely......certainly it feels 'juicy' out there

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Wow, very nice outside! 

Meanwhile, has anyone seen that somehow a storm erupted in the North Sea which was off the Yorkshire coast and is now set to possibly hit Aberdeen..! Couldn't make it up lol. They'll be saying haar haar big time if they get anything soon! 

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Apparently it's 26C in Bexley at the moment! :shok: so at 11:10 it's already the hottest day of the year so far.

Just wonder if the hotter than expected temperatures will be enough to pop the atmosphere. 

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33 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Wow, very nice outside! 

Meanwhile, has anyone seen that somehow a storm erupted in the North Sea which was off the Yorkshire coast and is now set to possibly hit Aberdeen..! Couldn't make it up lol. They'll be saying haar haar big time if they get anything soon! 

I think it missed us & stayed offshore - sky did get quite dark E through NE (offshore). Unless there is more to come.

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Ridiculously warm out there! Surely going to spark off some decent storms later on?!

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Wouldn't suprise me your in Lincoln after all.

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3 minutes ago, Raidan said:

Wouldn't suprise me your in Lincoln after all.

Hahaha, we'll see, looking at the charts it does not look favourable for Lincolnshire at all but stranger things have happened I guess :)

Looks like the West Midlands is the ideal spot again today.

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Yesterday's lightning strikes - not a bad start to the season!

lightning-07052016.jpg

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1 hour ago, William Grimsley said:

Just checked the NMM model, shows some heavy and possibly thundery showers moving through the area this evening. We're having a BBQ so this wouldn't be brilliant (though as you've guessed I'd prefer thunder to a BBQ). LOL. However, as we move through tomorrow evening and overnight, some real thunderstorms start breaking out widely across Cornwall and the south coast of Devon and Dorset. This could be an interesting upcoming 48 hours.

The Dew Point hit 14.0°C just a few minutes ago here!

It's such a shame that all this thundery heat as to end on Friday...

I'm not seeing much potential overnight..

Also, it looks like ending tomorrow for our neck of the woods- cloudy and outbreaks of rain. It looks drab in comparison to the last few days. Tuesday doesn't look much better either.

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Wednesday and Thursday could be good though, if the GFS knows anything:

ukcapeli.png
ukcapeli.png

Not sure if/how much other models agree with this though.

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