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End of the week & weekend storm risk

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1 minute ago, viking_smb said:

lot of heavy showers coming out of france at the moment.

indeed some lightning strikes just detected from the 'lead' cell mid-channel....a possible inference that this cell in particular may be elevated?

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Showers seem to be holding out coming out of France into the channel will be a few hours yet tho if they do manage to make it here on the south coast. Lightning? I don't think so but just my opinion which I hope is wrong lol 

 

 

Just as I wrote this lightning has been detected from one of the showers haha 

Edited by steve86
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Dorset and the Isle of Wight and parts of Hampshire look to have the best chance at the moment, should the showers make it. 

What a chase I had earlier though, 2 cracking storms one after the other. Noticed the news chopper capturing the vardy party disappeared for a while too! Think the energy generated inside the King power stadium must've helped too ;) 

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Really impressive explosive storm development this afternoon. We were up at Westbury White Horse from midday until 14.00, in that time the sky changed from total Cirrus/Altocumulus cover to almost clear blue and hot sunshine to rapid development of Cumulus, TCu. We then visited my parents in Westbury and in that half an hour the sky darkened and produced a sharp shower at the edge of what looked set to be a storm.

We then drove from Westbury to Warminster, having indeed realised the first local storm had fully formed near Trowbridge and I spotted further development just to the SW, kind of Frome/Shaftesbury way, and said to my wife I fully expected a storm out of that. The radar then exploded into life around Midsomer Norton/Wells and there must have been some serious hail cores within it judging by the light pink echoes.

As for Warminster, not a drop of rain and ended the day with the first alfresco dinner of the year with warm sunshine and the temperature still above 20c nearing 20.00! What a far cry from last week when it was down to 4c at the same time lol.

In fact, similar locations (specifically Trowbridge/Bradford On Avon) have had an Arctic air sourced thunderstorm last Saturday and a continental air sourced storm today!

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1 hour ago, ajpoolshark said:

indeed some lightning strikes just detected from the 'lead' cell mid-channel....a possible inference that this cell in particular may be elevated?

showers about to make landfall, so looks like a drop of rain for us, and I cleaned the sea cadet boats out today as well after work.

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A "so-so" day in Derby. The Leicester storm was clearly passing to the east of the city so I took a drive out. Unfortunately the storm was dying by the time it reached me but I did get a few flashes and rumbles before it did. I then headed back to Derby and caught a few rumbles among the next set of showers/storms before driving westwards to hopefully catch the cells moving northwest out of Brum....which subsequently died too.

I can't complain, I got a storm but it could have been better IMO. Well done to those that got the humdingers :)

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Sorry to moan, but yes it's not been a great evening here weatherwise! Most of the showers have been mainly light and even though the sky has looked very thundery all evening, there's not been a single lightning strike detected in this region! Quite surprising really! I can't see much chance of anything else developing tonight, we'll just have to see what happens! As @Supacell said, well done to everyone who got the thunderstorms today!

Edited by William Grimsley
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are these showers forecasted in the southern part of the uk/south wales?

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Well, the storm that passed over the King Power Stadium was quite active. I saw one of those loopy strikes that doesn't seem to earth, it really gave the helicopter a scare, which retired to a safer distance!!

All quiet now.....

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22 minutes ago, viking_smb said:

are these showers forecasted in the southern part of the uk/south wales?

Yes, they were.

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Looks like possibly a few of those showers in the channel are reinvigorating but it maybe me just becoming desperate.

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Rain about to hit here though not going to be thundery unfortunately. 

Tomorrows another day with the chance of thunder in places and maybe another day with thunder for me though I think anything that does happen will be in different areas of the UK than today

Good luck :)

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Not an easy one to call Sunday on likelihood of a storm developing, or where any storms are more likely to develop. Though it does appear that any activity tomorrow will truly be more isolated than the clustered cells today. Heights gradually on the increase with upper ridge extending west over UK. Bulk shear profile again non-existent, and not anticipating any obvious disturbances attm, so real lack of support aloft in all to help things to get going. 

Some good heating likely though during afternoon period, with sfc temps a few degrees higher on today, so peak heating might get some cells to fire. Euro4 pegging back the dew points inland, however - generally around 10C or perhaps 12C towards north and west, but boundary layer not looking as moist as GFS would suggest, and so LCLs looking quite high as a result.  CAPE outputs suspect in light of this. Regardless, lifting mechanisms are lacking. Meso. models not breaking out anything of note, and judging on how well they modeled activity Saturday, lends confidence to not expect anything more than much more isolated cells breaking out when heating is maximised.

But those are numerical models' take on things. Reality tends to play out somewhat differently.  :wink:

Edited by weather09
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Definitely a storm developing here... Rest behind could ignite at any time! (Showers behind where most instability is)cells.jpg

Edited by Ben Sainsbury

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The area of rain pointed out by Ben has according to some lightning maps produced sferics but on others has not.

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6 minutes ago, Raidan said:

The area of rain pointed out by Ben has according to some lightning maps produced sferics but on others has not.

What websites have reported lightning strikes?

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Not sure what sites, lightningmaps rea ltime is down and stuck from earlier this evening. Wouldn't be surprised if it was electrically active as it appears to have a good hail core on it.

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I hope William is up!! Looks to be right over his house lol 

 

another cell seems to be intensifying north of the Channel Islands, worth keeping an eye on. 

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91

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I'm in Axminster just had a very heavy down pour from that lot highlighted above but no thunder

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Indeed Sherrie, no thunder here either in Norton Fitzwarren near Taunton, just 5 mins or so of very heavy rain with very gusty winds.

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Lightning just east of Watchet in Somerset.

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Forecast for today (Sunday)

0a1c432.jpg

Some models are showing no precipitation for today, others are. Personally, I think something will trigger at some point during the afternoon, and when it does it could potentially be stronger than last night's storms due to higher energy, temperatures, lapse rates and a greater swathe of richer Theta-W air mass covering a larger portion of the country. Unlike today, convection initiation locations won't be as easy to pick out, and instead any convection that does manage to form is likely to be more scattered in nature with just about anywhere in the risk zones able to see something. Like today, however, the North West of England and Northern Wales seem to be best placed when it comes to parameters pulling together to favour storms.

Edited by Convective
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