End of the week & weekend storm risk

[weather09]

Looks like convective initiation a little earlier than expected - but meso. models all in agreement on showers/storms developing more widely after mid-afternoon and into evening period. Nice obs so far though. Sfc dewpoints generally 12s, with a few 13s - Coleshill recording temp./DP at 21/13C (matched with Euro4 progs), so likely good few 100j/kg CAPE having built up over central Mids to utilize this afternoon. 

Edited May 7, 2016 by weather09

[TheToastPeople]

One of those cells is gunna start rumbling any minute now

[Frosty hollows]

Showers now starting to organise. There's al line of showers spreading SW from here (S Oxfordshire) clearly visible on the radar. Skies look threatening, but little rainfall as yet

[StormChaseUK]

Yes Banbury could report the first Thunder shortly.

[NUT]

I see some white echoes in those showers (I would have no idea where) These look intense beasties!

[A.J]

more cells adjacent to the salisbury one popping up and developing readily......very disturbed looking skies here now......looks like it'll be a wet bbq

[Frosty hollows]

Those ones north of me look like little beasts. The one over me atm is just a moderate shower. Lift over the chilterns as it crosses the river may beef them up a bit

[Wilxy]

Started off cloudy then had a hour of sun got up to 22C now its gone dark to my SE!

[Frosty hollows]

Surprised the ones in Northampton and Banbury haven't electrified

[Wilxy]

1 minute ago, Frosty hollows said:

Surprised the ones in Northampton and Banbury haven't electrified

They just have!

[Supacell]

1 minute ago, Frosty hollows said:

Surprised the ones in Northampton and Banbury haven't electrified

And just as you say that, 2 strikes south of Banbury

Edited May 7, 2016 by Supacell

[TropicThunder]

My view to the north

 I am about to drive to Northampton so hoping to run into something of interest!

[Chris.R]

Current obs: temp:  22.0°C

DP:  12.7°C 

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

2 strikes just south of banbury

[steeples7]

Just a light shower about 10 mins ago, but as of 14:43 the first few rumbles just South of Banbury.

[Hirudine]

Some reasonable sized towers developing to our NE and thick cloud to the SE. I assume if anything develops from it, it'll be out north of London. 

Kind of hoping we don't get anything as I'll be in a club tonight- won't hear thunder over the music!

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

Looks like the cell south of Oxford is also pepping up fast, few booms may be imminent

[shogan83]

The past Hour it has gone from warm sunshine, too quite hazy and muggy conditions now looking slightly darker to my south

[Frosty hollows]

1 minute ago, Essex Easterly said:

Looks like the cell south of Oxford is also pepping up fast, few booms may be imminent

I thought I heard a rumble, but we've a fair at the rear of us, so dismissed it as noise from there

[toggerob]

Cell currently over Northampton has my name on it unless upper-wind vectors steer it more to the west, it's looking good however.

[Gordon Webb]

and here I though we were only having isolated to scattered or does this come under that umbrellla

[STORMGUY]

A lot of convection to the south of here

[SP1986]

A contrasting day in which convection is initiating earlier across central southern parts but the frontal cloud is much slower than forecast to clear some northwestern areas . This might put a dampener on things for coastal Wales and NW England. Currently stubborn overcast high level cloud and suppressed temperatures of 15.9C

[Panayiotis]

EURO4 seems to be the best so far at forecasting the showers which have formed:

Which has this for later:

So looking at this the area between Hereford and Leicester is looking good, but radar watching and nowcasting are best in these kind of situations

 

[Chris.R]

2 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

A contrasting day in which convection is initiating earlier across central southern parts but the frontal cloud is much slower than forecast to clear some northwestern areas . This might put a dampener on things for coastal Wales and NW England. Currently stubborn overcast high level cloud and suppressed temperatures of 15.9C

Here there's currently good sunny spells and it's 22.0 C.