End of the week & weekend storm risk

[stevofunnelcl]

I would say the risk tonight very low, unless something develops later

Gotta get on a plane and go to north coast of Africa to get decent lightning strikes

[Weatherbimbo]

4 hours ago, Speedway Slider said:

I'm an android jockey as well, but quite experienced.... I noticed the locations missing ages ago, but assumed it may be A privacy

 

Thanks try what @Mapantz said. Go to themes at the bottom. Worked a treat

[Ben Sainsbury]

What I have my eye on... GFS and WRF beginning to hint something in the next hour or two so?

Edited May 6, 2016 by Ben Sainsbury

[Weatherbimbo]

Ah @Ben Sainsbury that could be right over me.... fingers crossed for a little activity!!! 

[Hirudine]

Whilst there's definitely a good amount of humidity in the air tonight, it's looking pretty quiet across the UK. Going by what everyones saying it looks like Sunday's gonna be the best shot for some fireworks. Here's hoping!

[Polar Maritime]

Some interest shown by the NetWx-SR Model for later this afternoon, Especially over parts of the N/Midlands.

Edited May 7, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[Stormyking]

Estofex is keen on tonight

http://estofex.org/

Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 07 May 2016 06:00 to Sun 08 May 2016 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 07 May 2016 05:35
Forecaster: TASZAREK

No threat levels are issued.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

Thunderstorm activity on Saturday is divided into two main features. A first one concerns W Europe where a well defined warm sector with southerly advection of rich low-level moisture presses up to British Isles. Within this moisture and rather moderate lapse rates, a CAPE up to 800-1000 J/kg will develop in the line from SW France up to CNTRL Great Britain. A passage of the poorly marked shortwave trough in the afternoon hours will initiate northerly moving scattered thunderstorms. Due to weakly sheared environment (DLS < 10 m/s), no severe weather phenomena are expected in this area.

Edited May 7, 2016 by Stormyking

[Gordon Webb]

by looking at all forecasts that I have seen they all seem to be singing from a similar hymn sheet that storms are going to be fairly hit and miss and most seeing an essentially dry day

[NO LONGER POSTING]

e@Harry

Sorry Harry ignore tag fourm is so glitchy on mobile!

The bigger problem I see for any storms is the amount of cloud moving north

 

[Gordon Webb]

11 minutes ago, Surrey said:

e@Harry

Sorry Harry ignore tag fourm is so glitchy on mobile!

The bigger problem I see for any storms is the amount of cloud moving north

 

Yep that might be an issue , storms will be isolated anyway and with good bit of cloud around might also play a part

taken from www.convectieweather.co.uk

Elevated convection is likely to be ongoing across parts of Wales / Midlands and/or SW England, perhaps as far east as The Wash, on Saturday morning, drifting NNW-wards. In its wake, provided there are sufficient breaks in cloud cover to allow insolation, then 800-900 Jkg-1 may allow isolated thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon and early evening, especially within the SLGT. It appears timing is crucial between the passage of a shortwave trough and maximum solar heating, with an earlier arrival shifting the focus for initiation farther north and probably at an earlier time. It is worth stressing that these thunderstorms are likely to be fairly isolated, with a good part of the highlighted areas likely to remain dry - had storms been expected to form more widely, then this forecast would be upgraded to MDT.

 

20kts DLS is marginal but may allow some organisation of any isolated thunderstorms that do develop, although the overall risk of severe weather is considered fairly low, with the main threat being from minor surface water issues from heavy downpours (given PWAT 20-25mm). Given expected CAPE and some organisation, then hail up to 2.0cm in diameter is possible from any strong cells that develop.

 

There is also scope for further elevated convection, in a messy fashion, to either be imported or develop in-situ across Hampshire / IoW / Dorset / Devon on Saturday night, drifting NW-wards towards Wales. Once again, uncertainty exists concerning coverage and lightning frequency, otherwise there would be scope to upgrade Channel coasts to SLGT.

 

and this for tomorrow

 

Pockets of elevated convection may be ongoing on Sunday morning across parts of England and Wales, and like Saturday will continue to nudge towards the NW - provided once again that sufficient diurnal heating can develop, then there is scope for isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon and early evening.

 

Once again forecast profiles are not particularly conducive to organised convection, and hence the risk of severe weather is fairly low, with the main risk being flash flooding from heavy downpours and local incidences of hail up to 2.0cm in diameter. Forecast soundings suggest that thunderstorms will be quite isolated given fairly dry air in the mid and upper levels, and so while we have issued a broad SLGT given the potential for a given shower to produce lightning being quite high, aerial coverage will probably remain quite low.

 

Once again there is the potential for isolated elevated convection to be imported into southern coastal counties during Sunday night.

Edited May 7, 2016 by Gordon Webb

[Weather-history]

On 4 May 2016 at 22:47, Convective said:

Matt Taylor now adding the "intense" word before talking about the thunderstorms in the latest BBC foreca

[Weather-history]

Most notable AcCs of the year coming across my area.

[Gordon Webb]

1 hour ago, Polar Maritime said:

Some interest shown by the NetWx-SR Model for later this afternoon, Especially over parts of the N/Midlands.

 

bbc forecast seems to show that with a more liberal splashing of graphics which movies up to NW england this evening

[Supacell]

Euro4 is much further west than the NMM with the heaviest precipitation. I think if you are anywhere in the Midlands, NW England, Pennines or Wales it is another radar watching day if you want to track, chase or avoid today's possible thunderstorms.

[STORMGUY]

sky here is full of ac cas cloud

[Spikecollie]

A bit of a cloud cocktail here this morning...Météo France starts our main risk of t-storms here in Limousin on Monday, but Méteociel progs one or two tonight. The main risk today is northern France, it seems, good for possible imports for you folks in the south of the UK, or at least some channel lightning watching if anything gets going.

[Frosty hollows]

Been warm with high cloud so far this morning, and now the sun has poppped out and the heat has ramped up. RH 56% T 18.8C, but a lot of 'bubbly cloud' to the East. Wouldn't quite call it ACas, but it's got potential. We shall see !

[timeless]

MetO warnings have been updated.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?regionName=uk&from=rss&sn=58C2834E-24E0-E387-CABD-8560C96E3237_3_WM&tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1462575600

[Nick F]

Here's my latest convective outlook, covering today and tomorrow, looks like W/NW seeing the best risk of storms.

Storm & Convective Forecast

Issued 2016-05-07 09:26:33

Valid: 07/05/2016 0600z to 08/06/2016 0600z

DAYS 1 & 2 CONVECTIVE / STORM OUTLOOK

Synopsis

A deeply-amplified upper trough axis will be slow-moving just west of the British Isles down across Iberia over the weekend, before disrupting into a cut-off upper low to the west of Iberia early next week, while an upper ridge of the Baltic extends west to the north of the UK . Warm conveyor in the low to mid-levels will continue to spread north ahead of this upper trough across Britain over the weekend, while mid-level temperatures cool on the leading edge of the upper trough to the west. This will create steep lapse rates, bringng a risk of isolated to scattered thunderstorms mainly across the west over the weekend.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

06z Saturday 7th May to 06z Sunday 8th May

... WALES, MIDLANDS, NW ENGLAND, IRISH SEA, SW SCOTLAND...

Weak isentropic lift (upglide of warm air over cooler air at the surface) of warm conveyor ahead of upper trough to the west has brought mid-level cloudiness and outbreaks of showery rain overnight and this morning across SW England, Wales, Irish Sea, EIRE, N. Ireland and SW Scotland. This should clear from all but the far west through the morning and into the afternoon. Sunshine developing east Wales, The Midlands, NW England and SW  Scotland will heat an increasingly moist surface airmass advecting from the S/SE – with dew points rising to 10-11C, which beneath increasingly steep mid-level lapse rates – will generate around 300-800 j/kg CAPE this afternoon. Upper forcing will initially be fairly weak where instability will be highest this afternoon, so only an isolated risk of thunderstorms developing across the above areas – where local breeze convergence zones develop and/or upslope lift of SEly low-level flow over western hills create forcing for ascent. More upper support arrives this evening across these areas, as a shortwave trough, currently across western France, pushes north to perhaps break storms out more widely late evening across north Wales, N Midlands and NW England before spreading north across SW Scotland. Vertical shear will be rather weak, less than 30knts, though CAPE maybe high enough to allow strong enough updrafts into any storms that develop to produce marginally large hail (1-2cm) for a time this afternoon into early evening. Otherwise any storms may produce excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding, gusty winds and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. A MARGINAL risk has been given for the hail and risk of flooding, have refrained from a higher risk given isolated nature of storms.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

06z Sunday 8th May to 06z Monday 9th May

... WALES, MIDLANDS, NW ENGLAND, SW SCOTLAND ...

Overnight convection/isolated storms should clear away north during the first part of the morning, to allow sunny spells to develop and heat fairly moist airmass which will build CAPE to around 400-900 j/kg inland across the above areas during peak heating. So isolated or scattered thunderstorms will again develop and drift north. Like Saturday, an isolated risk of marginally large hail (1-2cm) with stronger storms, a risk of localised flooding from downpours and gusty winds. Given weak vertical shear again and isolated risk of storms, have refrained issuing more than a MARGINAL risk for severe weather.

... ELSEWHERE ...

One or two storms may develop across parts of EIRE and N. Ireland in the afternoon, should sufficient insolation occur. There is a low risk of storms developing across France during the afternoon drifting across the English Channel across parts of S and SE England later in the day and overnight.

Issued by: Nick Finnis @  http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

[Gordon Webb]

13 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Here's my latest convective outlook, covering today and tomorrow, looks like W/NW seeing the best risk of storms.

Storm & Convective Forecast

Issued 2016-05-07 09:26:33

Valid: 07/05/2016 0600z to 08/06/2016 0600z

DAYS 1 & 2 CONVECTIVE / STORM OUTLOOK

Synopsis

A deeply-amplified upper trough axis will be slow-moving just west of the British Isles down across Iberia over the weekend, before disrupting into a cut-off upper low to the west of Iberia early next week, while an upper ridge of the Baltic extends west to the north of the UK . Warm conveyor in the low to mid-levels will continue to spread north ahead of this upper trough across Britain over the weekend, while mid-level temperatures cool on the leading edge of the upper trough to the west. This will create steep lapse rates, bringng a risk of isolated to scattered thunderstorms mainly across the west over the weekend.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

06z Saturday 7th May to 06z Sunday 8th May

... WALES, MIDLANDS, NW ENGLAND, IRISH SEA, SW SCOTLAND...

Weak isentropic lift (upglide of warm air over cooler air at the surface) of warm conveyor ahead of upper trough to the west has brought mid-level cloudiness and outbreaks of showery rain overnight and this morning across SW England, Wales, Irish Sea, EIRE, N. Ireland and SW Scotland. This should clear from all but the far west through the morning and into the afternoon. Sunshine developing east Wales, The Midlands, NW England and SW  Scotland will heat an increasingly moist surface airmass advecting from the S/SE – with dew points rising to 10-11C, which beneath increasingly steep mid-level lapse rates – will generate around 300-800 j/kg CAPE this afternoon. Upper forcing will initially be fairly weak where instability will be highest this afternoon, so only an isolated risk of thunderstorms developing across the above areas – where local breeze convergence zones develop and/or upslope lift of SEly low-level flow over western hills create forcing for ascent. More upper support arrives this evening across these areas, as a shortwave trough, currently across western France, pushes north to perhaps break storms out more widely late evening across north Wales, N Midlands and NW England before spreading north across SW Scotland. Vertical shear will be rather weak, less than 30knts, though CAPE maybe high enough to allow strong enough updrafts into any storms that develop to produce marginally large hail (1-2cm) for a time this afternoon into early evening. Otherwise any storms may produce excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding, gusty winds and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. A MARGINAL risk has been given for the hail and risk of flooding, have refrained from a higher risk given isolated nature of storms.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

06z Sunday 8th May to 06z Monday 9th May

... WALES, MIDLANDS, NW ENGLAND, SW SCOTLAND ...

Overnight convection/isolated storms should clear away north during the first part of the morning, to allow sunny spells to develop and heat fairly moist airmass which will build CAPE to around 400-900 j/kg inland across the above areas during peak heating. So isolated or scattered thunderstorms will again develop and drift north. Like Saturday, an isolated risk of marginally large hail (1-2cm) with stronger storms, a risk of localised flooding from downpours and gusty winds. Given weak vertical shear again and isolated risk of storms, have refrained issuing more than a MARGINAL risk for severe weather.

... ELSEWHERE ...

One or two storms may develop across parts of EIRE and N. Ireland in the afternoon, should sufficient insolation occur. There is a low risk of storms developing across France during the afternoon drifting across the English Channel across parts of S and SE England later in the day and overnight.

Issued by: Nick Finnis @  http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

I'll sum this up purely for my own peace of mind so to start with when it'll be it's most unstable for me this aftwrnoon the chances for a storm are small and later on the chances are higher but further North of my location which should please supacell if it comes to pass

going back to my west wing weekend binge and hoping the weather stays boring

[Speedway Slider]

Think we'll get away with it for a large part of this particular thundery threat Gordon..

Wouldn't mind if we get "clipped" by a storm after dark, as long as it keeps its distance around 5-8 miles away so I can enjoy the lightning and rumbling thunder safely...

[The PIT]

All depends if we get the heat.Despite early morning clag dew points surprisingly low . Clag slowly burning off which is the important thing.

[richep]

BBC forecast pushes showers up from france across the west country and parts  of central southern england tonight ?  

[Speedway Slider]

14 minutes ago, richep said:

BBC forecast pushes showers up from france across the west country and parts  of central southern england tonight ?  

Do you think this is an accurate forecast?

[Nouska]

06Z AROME has first strong returns showing for between 3 and 4 pm.

First season with the availability of this model which has convective activity as a primary focus - will be interesting to see how accurate it is.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arome.php?ech=3&mode=129&map=31