Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

Recommended Posts

22 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

Coming back to those two posts from Frosty (Karl) last week the hot spell is still on and if anything the temps were under cooked

I think you may want to think again in all honesty Frosty (Karl) wasn't misleading

Cheers Gavin:drinks:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

When heat lovers are grabbing a 2 day warm spell, you know Summer is shocking:cold:...Northern blocking taking hold  and to me that leads us into August an prolonged heat struggling....

image.png

Jeez you really are glass half full

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Greenland1080 said:

Def not a southern drawn plume proper....Nonsense to call it a proper African drawn plume..,BBC are useless an grabbing on to anything...believe me this isn't a plume event.

It should be 32c 90f in London on Tuesday Greenland..hope you wrap up warm mate:cold::D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, Karl. said:

Oh yes it is Greenland, well according to BBC weather it is anyway:D

Isn't it a repeat of last Wimbledon, plume event also on a Tues/Wed, 30th June/01 July? reminds me so much of that

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well im not getting drawn into the plume gate anyway :D

Looks hot as a chicken vindaloo on tues across the South - temps of 28- 30 i would imagine- bit of a messy breakdown wed and then mainly dry and warm thereafter on ecm .

Edited by northwestsnow

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

Def not a southern drawn plume proper....Nonsense to call it a proper African drawn plume..,BBC are useless an grabbing on to anything...believe me this isn't a plume event.

Can someone help me with where the air is coming from then? Following the isobars, looks like the air is coming up from Spain/Med to me and even some element from N Africa mixed in too. The event is brief but pretty much all events like this are. Dont think I have ever seen a plume event with strong isobar lines all the way down to Africa - pressure is always relatively low and 'messy' around Spain, presumably heat lows, small disturbances? I know you don't like the heat mate but I cannot see how it is not a plume? Always keen to hear other opinions though. We are all learning. :)

Classic 2-3 fine days and a then a thunderstorm to me!

EC12z 19th July 2016.png

Edited by Costa Del Fal

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

One of the cherry tree but who would discount this from the GFS  for late July:hi:

image.png

Edited by Matthew Wilson

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Greenland1080 said:

Def not a plume mate for that you want a Bartlett feeding complete African air straight up into Uk...this def isn't a plume event too short, not hot enough, just a basic warmth of air nothing more. Plumes are hotter an longer lasting. don't even need an ice cream with this:cold:

If there's possibility of the elusive silver crayon that has to be ice cream weather buddy. 32c possible! That's hot!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In many ways this chart for Friday illustrates how, within this upper air pattern, you get different phases of the two air masses interacting. A kind of ripple effect that in general favours the south for the warmer and drier weather. This is just me musing but it can occasionally break down. If the HP to the west is strong enough and the trough fairly weak then a slack pressure zone can be created to the south of us, rather similar to what appears to be happening at the moment resulting in WAA from the south. :shok:

ecm_t850_uv_eur_7.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Greenland1080 said:

Def not a plume mate for that you want a Bartlett feeding complete African air straight up into Uk...this def isn't a plume event too short, not hot enough, just a basic warmth of air nothing more. Plumes are hotter an longer lasting. don't even need an ice cream with this:cold:

Hehe, had a chuckle at that. :) I might need one though. Magnum anyone? Or maybe even a Fab or Solero? :D

Back on topic, the ECM is interesting with another diving trough later next week. Nothing to repeat what we will see in the next few days but a pleasant enough set up temperature wise at least for the rest of the week. Longer term who knows given recent model flips but interesting times for model watching after a fairly prolonged quiet period. :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, Costa Del Fal said:

Can someone help me with where the air is coming from then? Following the isobars, looks like the air is coming up from Spain/Med to me and even some element from N Africa mixed in too. The event is brief but pretty much all events like this are. Dont think I have ever seen a plume event with strong isobar lines all the way down to Africa - pressure is always relatively low and 'messy' around Spain, presumably heat lows, small disturbances? I know you don't like the heat mate but I cannot see how it is not a plume? Always keen to hear other opinions though. We are all learning. :)

Classic 2-3 fine days and a then a thunderstorm to me!

EC12z 19th July 2016.png

There you go  There should be no arguments that this is a plume.

 

ecm_t850_uv_eur_4.png

Edited by knocker

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Whoever started this diving trough rumour with the ecm must immediately go and stand in the corner for two hours.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, knocker said:

There you go  There should be no arguments that this a plume.

 

ecm_t850_uv_eur_4.png

Thanks for confirming this Knocker:) I thought so but when objections are raised it can make one wonder if 2+2 does really equal 4.

Edited by Matthew Wilson

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, knocker said:

Whoever started this diving trough rumour with the ecm must immediately go and stand in the corner for two hours.

Lol, not me although I have mentioned it too though on second look it is not anything significant (yet at least). Just of course any low pressure to our SW would keep the warm flow coming for that bit longer but all very insignificant to what is ahead in the next few days. For anything significant you need low pressure/low heights much more well to the SW like what will happen in the next couple of days as this promotes the high pressure ahead of it to the East. Anyway, all likely to change and merely anything compared to the next few days. :) 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

Not really a plume unless it's hot enough to trigger hail, an it won't so def not a plume as such.

It's a spanish plume according to sidney, and that's good enough for me:D

Bear in mind, the Gfs is still undercooking the max temps and from what I hear, 30-32c from north to south across England and Wales with maybe Heathrow recording 33c 91f:shok::)

h850t850eu.png.4bf5ae7bccc1da9a93b67763c86ab11d.png

578a74bc4388d_ukmaxtemp(10).png.b1a78ceba0e8ea489f7f3ec0a73c23af.png

excited.jpg.6cd7d89af65d5f646c6416743b328d1d.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Greenland1080 said:

Hehe apologies Knocks how's Sidney?:D

Sidney will be sucking ice cubes then! Or chilled nuts. Why am I talking about Sidney's nuts :cc_confused:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, knocker said:

Are you on the magic mushrooms Greenland?

I see the madness is spreading from the political threads!

@Greenland1080 How do you know there will be no hail? Some very tasty looking convective charts for the breakdown.

Edited by Gael_Force

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Greenland1080 said:

Def not a plume event though

So you keep saying. But why? Please educate us as to what is a Spanish plume and why this isn't one.

Mere assertions do not convince anyone.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

where do I start?.....thought I'd pop into the model thread to peruse the output as it looks busy, and what do I find, apart from the odd informative post, about 3 pages of absolute garbage!.......MODEL OUTPUT DISCUSSION ONLY!............see, I put it in big bold capitals just in case anyone can't read it..........for those in question, Get a grip & Get on topic............thanks 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Greenland1080 said:

The plume was never going to happen ...,you cannot say this is in anyway a plume......Lovely 3 day spell, but never a plume event. By way the models are very consistent on Northern blocking as per knockers posts.....cooler, Westerly Atlantic with incursions of NW winds....

I'll just clarify - this is not correct. It's a textbook plume.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, it's the closest I've seen to a Spanish plume for sometime!

I can't really understand those thinking it's not?

20c isotherm very close to SE

I predict, somewhere in North Kent (Gravesend) could experience 31c or 32c on Tuesday but only if the sun breaks through for long enough!

Just saying! :yahoo:

 

 

Edited by snowblizzard

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

Well, it's the closest I've seen to a Spanish plume for sometime!

I can't really understand those thinking it's not?

20c isotherm very close to SE

I predict, somewhere in North Kent (Gravesend) could experience 31c or 32c on Tuesday but only if the sun breaks through for long enough!

Just saying! :yahoo:

 

 

Go home Greenland you're drunk :wink:

With experience we will reach those figures with ease in a number of locations I foresee across southern England not just exclusively in London area. With these set ups I think the models do a bad job on temps I anticipate we will hit the ceiling > 34C for Heathrow that's my punt, under the 10C isotherm it reached 27C today with a westerly sourced flow. We're at that time of year when we get maximum heating.

it's no hard feat getting above 30C mid summer it may seem like it! 

if this ain't a plume then I'm not sure what is? It definitely does not source from Greenland...

image.gif

Edited by Daniel*

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

All i have to say is ' if its Hot ' Then it is a Plume ' 30C ' Thats hot ' only 7 days ago some members were writing of Summer and all doom and gloom in here ' only the start of our Summer ' Enjoy it while it lasts for another month and a half ' yeh !! you seen it here first and a very cold Winter is coming .

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...