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Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

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3 minutes ago, Karl. said:

Agreed, it's at least a 5 day warm / very warm then hot and humid spell for the south of the uk, the peak should see 90F in the south, hardly blink and miss it:D8)

The truth of that statement will depend on where you are , it'll be true for some but not for all

Edited by Gordon Webb
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9 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

The truth of that statement will depend on where you are , it'll be true for some but not for all

If you read my post I said 5 days of warmth then heat for the SOUTH!

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ok, lets get back on topic.................the model output this morning suggests today and tomorrow low 20-25C for areas south of the midlands rising to 25-30C monday and tuesday. For wednesday for areas south of the midlands, the jury is still out as with low pressure near the SW corner of the British Isles, cloud and convective activity may suppress temperatures considerably

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1 minute ago, ajpoolshark said:

ok, lets get back on topic.................the model output this morning suggests today and tomorrow low 20-25C for areas south of the midlands rising to 25-30C monday and tuesday. For wednesday for areas south of the midlands, the jury is still out as with low pressure near the SW corner of the British Isles, cloud and convective activity may suppress temperatures considerably

It could reach 26/27c 80F in parts of the south / southeast today and tomorrow given any decent cloud breaks and prolonged sunshine since the air mass in the south is already warm and humid even before we get the injection of heat from southern Europe associated with the spanish plume through the first half of next week...looking like proper summer at last! :- )

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Just now, Karl. said:

It could reach 26/27c 80F in parts of the south / southeast today and tomorrow given any decent cloud breaks and prolonged sunshine since the air mass in the south is already warm and humid even before we get the injection of heat from southern Europe associated with the spanish plume through the first half of next week...looking like proper summer at last! :- )

it doesnt feel warm outside here....lol...........cloudy and claggy is how I would describe things.............the problem with model output, even hi-res modelling, is that the forecast of cloudiness is almost impossible to model accurately (and we think storm and snow forecasting is difficult!)......At the moment we have a weak cold front straddling the midlands, this should continue to weaken allowing the potential for clouds to break up today for areas south of the frontal boundary. The problem for a lot of southern districts today is that due to the humid westerly/south westerly flow is allowing cloud to stream in from the atlantic, this could be a spoiler for many southern areas especially the further west one goes, and temperatures will be naturally suppresses, SAT24 imagery shows this clearly....So whilst 26/27C is possible, I fear it may well be the exception rather than the norm.....I sincerely hope to be wrong though, I have a BBQ plannnd this afternoon :D

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The Gfs 6z op run shows a spanish plume during the first half of next week, initially fine, sunny and becoming very warm or hot with soaring humidity before thunderstorms become more widespread, especially across western and northern areas with midweek being most stormy but the storms push off to the east by thursday and although we lose the plume, it's still a warm day on thursday with temps into the low to mid 20's c, especially further south and east. I think the gfs is still under playing the heat potential, it seems to me the hottest areas, maybe Heathrow airport could reach 32/33c on tuesday with 30c 86f quite widespread across England and wales with 27c across Scotland...Sidney can't wait!:D

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GFS hits rainfall button as low moves north overnight Tuesday.

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After the heat and thunderstorms the end of next week sees pressure building out west wether this extends over the UK remains to be see

UKMO has it close to the SW

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GFS has it over most of England and Wales not completely dry but feeling warm warm any sunshine

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Edited by Summer Sun

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Without giving too much away, GFS really is pulling off quite the trick with the focusing of (admittedly rather disorganised) low heights south of Greenland allowing the Azores High to keep extending across the UK. When you look at recent ensemble means and large-scale forcing, runs like the ECM 00z make a lot more sense (unfortunately!) - but it is possible to get lucky sometimes, as the next few days are already looking to prove!

Differences in the expected tropical forcing look to be important, and ECM is a bit out-there at the moment - but that's not to say it's wrong.

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Longer-term forecasts will be fun this week :laugh:

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The Gfs 12z op is a run worth banking, especially for the south of the uk where there is a lot of Azores high influence throughout the run bringing a good deal of fine and warm / very warm weather whilst the north is more changeable but warm at times.

We really should talk about the spanish plume now because the first half of next week looks very summery, by far the best spell of this summer so far is just around the corner. By Monday most of England and Wales should be in the 24/28c range from north to south, there is the outside chance of an isolated heavy thundery shower on Monday but for many it looks dry, sunny and very warm but tuesday is the day to remember, even by 9am the temps across southern uk are 23/25c and you just know it's going to be a sizzler, again the gfs maxes are conservative but I think they will upgrade in the next few days and I think 32c for parts of the south is realistic and widely 29/30c, even 27c in scotland which will make a nice change. Later Tuesday into Wednesday is when it all kicks off, it looks like a major thundery breakdown but again, weds is a very warm / hot day with 27/29c in the warmest spots, very humid midweek too. By thurs it's cooler and fresher from the west but largely fine with sunny spells with temps in the low 20's celsius and then warming up again across southern uk, a very decent outlook further south.:)

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Edited by Karl.
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The red crayon has no doubt now but there is a small chance of even seeing the silver crayon, if there is such a thing, if temps can reach 33c as shaded over France on Tuesday. Big storms also still on the menu after the heat!

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5 minutes ago, Karl. said:

The Gfs 12z op is a run worth banking, especially for the south of the uk where there is a lot of Azores high influence throughout the run bringing a good deal of fine and warm / very warm weather whilst the north is more changeable but warm at times.

We really should talk about the spanish plume now because the first half of next week looks very summery, by far the best spell of this summer so far is just around the corner. By Monday most of England and Wales should be in the 24/28c range from north to south, there is the outside chance of an isolated heavy thundery shower on Monday but for many it looks dry, sunny and very warm but tuesday is the day to remember, even by 9am the temps across southern uk are 23/25c and you just know it's going to be a sizzler, again the gfs maxes are conservative but I think they will upgrade in the next few days and I think 32c for parts of the south is realistic and widely 29/30c, even 27c in scotland which will make a nice change. Later Tuesday into Wednesday is when it all kicks off, it looks like a major thundery breakdown but again, weds is a very warm / hot day with 27/29c in the warmest spots, very humid midweek too. By thurs it's cooler and fresher from the west but largely fine with sunny spells with temps in the low 20's celsius and then warming up again across southern uk, a very decent outlook further south.:)

 

It's a good run, Karl. The best period of summer weather we've had so far. Next week looks warm throughout. 

In the grand scheme of things, nothing special, but given the state of this summer so far it does look amazing! 

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9 minutes ago, cheese said:

In the grand scheme of things, nothing special, but given the state of this summer so far it does look amazing! 

You hit the nail on the head there cheese, it's the dire state of this summer which makes the Gfs 12z op run look so excellent, at least for the southern half of the uk but the Spanish plume is a Bonus, quite a few dismissed it while some of us kept hopeful and its payed off because although today was warm in the south, Mon thru weds looks fab-u-lus

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Keeping an eye on things further afield. A fairly familiar pattern with the GEFS anomalies. Positive heights Greenland and ridging Scandinavia with a trough to the NW is the order of the day with variations on the orientation of the Azores HP. Ergo we end up with the familiar tale of a north south split with frontal tracks tending NE. The day to day detail regarding the weather over the UK will depend to large extent on the waxing and waning of the trough and the Azores HP but certainly this scenario favours the south for drier and warmer conditions. Temps on the whole around average but obviously variable depending on what phase we in. If I tell you any more I will have to kill you.

Sidney not that impressed and spat his nut out this morning

 

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Edited by knocker
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6 minutes ago, knocker said:

Keeping an eye on things further afield. A fairly familiar pattern with the GEFS anomalies. Positive heights Greenland and ridging Scandinavia with a trough to the NW is the order of the day with variations on the orientation of the Azores HP. Ergo we end up with the familiar tale of a north south split with frontal tracks tending NE. The day to day detail regarding the weather over the UK will depend to large extent on the waxing and waning of the trough and the Azores HP but certainly this scenario favours the south for drier and warmer conditions. Temps on the whole around average but obviously variable depending on what phase we in. If I tell you any more I will have to kill you.

Sidney not that impressed and spat his nut out this morning

 

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Better stick sidney in the fridge this week he will be sweating cobs in all that lovely heat :)

Looks like a bit of everything this week for everyone, heat, storms and later in the week hopefully some pleasant warmth for southern UK, longer term the dreaded Greeny high looks set for a return.

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NAVGEM again really having the party vibes tonight for Tuesday. 34-35c temps Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning, the 24c 850hPa line makes it to the SE coast! Yes it is probably being a little excessive but GEM also bringing the 20c hPa line further in tonight than yesterday I think. 

The charts from the NAVGEM may be a little silly but what the heck, some close shades to last 1st July! 

In all seriousness, I expect 28-31c will be quite widespread then a 32c somewhere around the South and West Midlands through to the home counties area then maybe a 33 possibly 34c at the very maximum in the London hot spots. 

NavGem 19th July 2016 16th 12z run.pngNavgem 850hpa 19th 20th July 2016.png

Edited by Costa Del Fal
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Now this is going to be interesting. At T144, the ECM dives another small trough just before it reaches the UK. A further draw of warm (not hot) air from the south - could still be clinging on to 25C in many S/E parts. But I sense there may be more developments to come in this direction...

ECM1-144.GIF?16-0  ECM0-144.GIF?16-0

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The GEFS 12z mean for next tuesday couldn't look much better than that with a hot plume and then a thundery breakdown and further ahead, the Azores high looks like ridging in close to the sw / s bringing spells of fine and warm weather through the rest of july across southern uk.

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On 09/07/2016 at 18:42, Karl. said:

The Gem 12z shows high pressure building in late next week and as the high migrates to the NE we draw warmer and more humid air up from the near continent with mid 20s celsius becoming quite widespread but also an increasing chance of thundery showers breaking out between very warm spells of sunshine.

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On 09/07/2016 at 18:04, Karl. said:

The Gfs 12z op run gives us something to look forward to later next week including the weekend into the early part of week 2 with high pressure building in with plenty of sunshine and becoming warmer with temps into the low to mid 20's celsius...looks good and who knows, the reality could be even better :-)

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Coming back to those two posts from Frosty (Karl) last week the hot spell is still on and if anything the temps were under cooked

On 09/07/2016 at 19:21, Greenland1080 said:

 I'm posting what's likely to happen too much look a plume at t240 going on in here sorry we get blamed in Winter so please stop posting T216 plumes which aren't going to happen....That's misleading

I think you may want to think again in all honesty Frosty (Karl) wasn't misleading

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9 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

When heat lovers are grabbing a 2 day warm spell, you know Summer is shocking:cold:...Northern blocking taking hold  and to me that leads us into August an prolonged heat struggling....

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Oh yes, the very far reaches of the GFS 12z do indeed go markedly downhill. However... Need I say more? :wink:

ECM continues to be against the idea of the Azores High extending right across the UK Thu-Fri but that second diving low in Thu is most intriguing... and there is actually a bit more of an attempt by the AH to get in on the act afterward. It's turning into an entertaining spell of model watching :)

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AT 1800 Tuesday the ecm has max temps of 28C-30C for much of England and Wales around 24C for the Borders and 20-22C north west Scotland. The same time Weds the hot weather SE of a line Cleethorpes to east Devon, including east Wales, with the higher temps, around 28C, confined to a line SE of the Wash to Lyme Regis.By contrast western Scotland just 12C - 14C. Thereafter cooler weather from the Atlantic enters stage left.

 

Edited by knocker
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The Ecm 12z is a very good run for the south of the BI, we start with the spanish plume building north early next week with increasing heat and humidity, max temps of 30/32c north to south, nearer 25/27c for n.ireland and scotland...then it goes bang later on tues and through wed with a thundery breakdown which should be fun, especially night storms and weds is another very warm humid day in hazy sunshine between the big storms. Thursday not as hot but still warm, especially in the south and humid, similar friday with light winds and sunny spells but still a chance of a few heavy showers but then the Azores high ridges into the southwest / south of the uk by next weekend and it becomes fine and gradually temps rise into the mid 20's celsius, it's only the far northwest / north of the uk that looks more unsettled towards the end of the run with temps nearer average.

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2 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

It's NOT a plume event!

Oh yes it is Greenland, well according to BBC weather it is anyway:D

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10 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

It's NOT a plume event!

Albeit brief, I am seeing warm/hot air being drawn up from the South during Tuesday afternoon from the Iberian region. I fail to see how it isn't a plume. Obviously it gets pushed away relatively sharpish but that is often the case in these set ups. (If it verifies of course)

Edited by Chris K
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