Jump to content

Please share your photos from the long weekend to our Easter weekend 2019 photo gallery!

Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

Recommended Posts

I don't want to put a spanner in the works but Tuesday looks increasingly hot! Hot air surging north from the Sahara. Wednesday could go out with a bang with some vicious thunderstorms.

image.png

image.png

image.png

image.png

Edited by Matthew Wilson
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Costa Del Fal said:

I know the NAVGEM is not the best model out there but if I remember correctly, it was not actually far off the mark with some of it's temperature predictions in last years heat spike and in the end was not so silly after all. Here is the current output for this coming Tuesday...

 

Tues 19th 2016 NAVGEM Temps.png

I would love it to be right but I think I recall it showing 40C+ on some of its runs last year actually, certainly there was one model doing this and I think it was NAVGEM.

Best chance of getting well into the 30s would be if the exceptional uppers could be delayed by just a few hours on Wednesday morning, like on this GEFS member:

gens-11-0-114.png

The delaying of a breakdown is far from uncommon, but then again the speeding up of one is common too. Unfortunately the best of the uppers look to be coming overnight. Still, just a few days ago next week was supposed to be "back to normal", so plenty for sun lovers to be grateful for!

I don't think it will be the last heat burst of the summer, regardless of what the mean charts are telling us - I think we'll see another buckle in the system in the following two weeks and another chance of a plume (*This is a hunch, not a forecast, by the way!)

.....

Looking at the GEFS in a bit more detail - two clear alternatives come up by D10. The first option (example below) is a stalled low either over us or just to the east, with high pressure generally building north through the Atlantic. The result will be a northerly influence, cool and less settled, particularly in the east. 11 members follow this theme in some way. 

gens-0-1-240.png

The second option (example below) sees the Azores High getting back in ahead of the low (or arguably pushing in more vigorously behind a clear low), and the low stalls to our west at least for a little while longer. This option allows for a more southerly influence and possibly another warm spell of weather. 9 members go this way in some shape or form:

gens-16-1-240.png

Therefore, it's not a good evening to consider the GEFS mean as representative. With such an even split of runs going distinctly one way or another, the GEFS mean simply flattens everything out, which betrays the fact almost all of the ensemble members have much more amplification wither in one part of the north Atlantic or another.

Looking three days further ahead (D13) at the two example members I showed above, you can see something else that is interesting:

gens-0-1-312.png  gens-16-1-312.png

For the unsettled one at D10, the trough has now cleared and high pressure is building back in. But the "settled" member at D10 now finally succumbs to the trough. Lots of the members copy a version of these runs in their evolution.

What does this tell me? Probably this. The D8-D14 period may end up "averagish" on the whole. But these ensembles tell me we're not likely to see average weather on each day. Rather, we'll probably see some very good days and some very poor days.

Maybe I'm stating the absolute obvious here(!), but I think this is an important point to make, especially as some on here may confuse people's forecasts of "average weather" with "no good/bad weather at all".

 

 

Edited by Man With Beard
  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good old navgem! 34c seems well overdone to me though this time....I think an isolated 30c will be about as good as we get. Not to be sniffed at in this rotten summer!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

 

The GEFS 12z mean looks excellent through the first half of next week for those of us fed up with this cool cloudy summer..hopefully it won't be long before it looks as good again!

21_96_850tmp.png

21_102_2mtmpmax.png

21_120_850tmp.png

21_126_2mtmpmax.png

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

just to back up my point above, uncertainty over the trough placement by D10 is nicely shown up by the spreads - both GFS and ECM struggling to pin down exactly where the trough to our west will be by D10:

gens-22-1-240.png   EEM1-240.GIF?15-0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
52 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Good old navgem! 34c seems well overdone to me though this time....I think an isolated 30c will be about as good as we get. Not to be sniffed at in this rotten summer!

Certainly possible should there be some unbroken sunshine under the highest uppers. Wind direction is favourable too for the usual hotspots. I'd go for a high 33 maybe 34 at somewhere like Northolt or Heathrow area. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lovely looking Ecm12z ens mean up to and including next midweek, following a warm and largely fine weekend in the south with temps into the mid 20's celsius, early next week becomes very warm or hot and increasingly humid from the south with spells of sunshine but an increasing chance of heavy showers and thunderstorms, even the north becomes warmer.We should see parts of the south hitting 30-31c on Tuesday and still into the mid to high 20's c on wednesday further south / southeast. Looking further ahead, although we lose the very warm uppers, it still looks on the warm side with sunshine and thundery showers with temps around the low 20's c.

Reem482.gif

Reem722.gif

Reem962.gif

Reem1202.gif

Reem1442.gif

Reem1682.gif

Reem1922.gif

Reem2162.gif

Reem2402.gif

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The ecm and NOAA anomalies are in fair agreement in the 6-10 range this evening. Azores HP pushing north in mid Atlantic, positive heights Greenland and a weak trough north of the UK. Looking at the 850mb chart this essentially means a trough to the north west moving east to north of the UK veering the upper flow NW. Ergo the tendency for a N/S split continues after the middle of next week.

In the 10-15 period perhaps some more amplification and with the trough becoming more influential temps falling below average.

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.pngecm_eps_z500a_natl_11.png610day.03.gif

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Today a weak front lying across the country from N. Wales splitting the country in two. Warm and humid south of the front and much cooler north. From Sunday becoming increasingly warmer culminating on Tuesday, as a shallow low drifts in from the south west, with temps around 28C in England and even the possibility of the odd place touching 30C  Possibility of storms Tuesday running into Wednesday The low quickly moves away allowing cooler air from the west which actually becomes quite cool by the ten day period but that will keep I think.

gfs_6hr_precip_eur2_16.pnggfs_6hr_precip_eur2_23.pnggfs_t2maf_slp_eur2_41.png

Edited by knocker
  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bring on the spanish plume! Temps set to soar early next week and even this weekend the south will be up to 25/26/27c in any decent sunshine but the first half of next week draws increasing warmth / heat and humidity northwards from France / Spain up across the UK with 30/32c in the south, the gfs is currently under playing the maxima. The warmth spreads north to scotland with 26/27c across eastern scotland. With this plume comes lots of sunshine but with isolated thunderstorms breaking out, the storms become more widespread midweek but gradually clear to the east by Thursday but I can safely say the best spell of the summer is coming and hopefully we will see more of it during the rest of this summer!:)

h850t850eu.png

ukmaxtemp.png

h850t850eu (1).png

ukstormrisk.png

ukstormrisk (1).png

ukstormrisk (2).png

h850t850eu (2).png

hgt500-1000.png

ukmaxtemp (1).png

ukprec.png

ukstormrisk (3).png

hgt500-1000 (1).png

ukmaxtemp (2).png

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Net/Wx MR Model continues to show a 'hot' day Tuesday with temps possibly hitting 31c in some parts, And the chance of some big storms in the offering pushing North. Plenty of interest to keep tabs on over the next few days..

a.pngb.pngc.png

 

Edited by Polar Maritime
  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Ecm 00z shows a lovely spanish plume next week, I think the south could reach 32c 90f on Tuesday and even Wednesday looks very warm / hot and humid. Fine with plenty of sunshine early next week but then come the thunderstorms and I expect the midweek period will be stormy but it's proper summer weather on the way..for those who said it wouldn't happen, guess what, it is!:D

0_mslp850uk.png

24_mslp850uk.png

48_mslp850uk.png

48_mslp500.png

72_mslp500.png

72_mslp850.png

72_mslp850uk.png

96_mslp850.png

96_mslp850uk.png

96_thick.png

120_mslp850uk.png

120_mslp850.png

120_thick.png

96_mslp500.png

Edited by Karl.
  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Net/Wx MR Model continues to show a 'hot' day Tuesday with temps possibly hitting 31c in some parts, And the chance of some big storms in the offering pushing North. Plenty of interest to keep tabs on over the next few days..

a.pngb.pngc.png

 

Tuesday certainly looks like being a cracker of a day, the thing that interests me is could we get another hot day out of this.

Net/Wx MR say yes for eastern areas

viewimage.pbx?type=nmmlo;date=20160716;t

Other models keep the high 850 temperatures well into Wednesday too, so it is ore a case of sunshine amounts and showers that could suppress temperatures. It would be worth saying that Monday is also looking like being a very warm day.

viewimage.pbx?type=nmmlo;date=20160716;t

So the first half of the week looks very or to hot in the south and east, further north it is more of a one day thing (Tuesday), there is a risk of some pretty intense thunderstorms on both Tuesday and Wednesday to bear in mind as well.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The ecm Tuesday 18z has max temps 28C in England possibly touching 30C in places with 24C in the north and 20C N. Scotland. On Weds at the same time temps around 26C, possibly 28C in places, but restricted to SE of a line Humber to Bristol. NW of that line much cooler and as low as 16C in N. Scotland.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As PM said above 31c could be hit on Tuesday in the south this is backed up by the beeb even some parts of Scotland could reach the mid 20's

CndlNi5W8AAQMx6.jpg

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes Tuesday seems to be the peak of the heat plume.The air sourced from as far south as N.Africa

gfs_T850_eu_15.pnggfs_T2m_eu_15.png

Temperatures down there modeled into the 40c's!

It does look like a brief plume though as we see the cooler Atlantic air lurking in the wings out west.

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

As PM said above 31c could be hit on Tuesday in the south this is backed up by the beeb even some parts of Scotland could reach the mid 20's

CndlNi5W8AAQMx6.jpg

So a nationwide hot day. Shows how things can change quickly, even 48 hours ago many of us were writing off chances of heat for the north!

The GFS really is exceptionally hot - 18C 850s in place for a whole day over southern UK - a slight tweak could see 35C threatened on Wednesday - that would be the absolute ceiling for this situation, and I rather suspect that the GFS 00Z has slightly overdone things anyway. 32C a more likely target.

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Karl. said:

The Ecm 00z shows a lovely spanish plume next week, I think the south could reach 32c 90f on Tuesday and even Wednesday looks very warm / hot and humid. Fine with plenty of sunshine early next week but then come the thunderstorms and I expect the midweek period will be stormy but it's proper summer weather on the way..for those who said it wouldn't happen, guess what, it is!:D

0_mslp850uk.png

24_mslp850uk.png

48_mslp850uk.png

48_mslp500.png

72_mslp500.png

72_mslp850.png

72_mslp850uk.png

96_mslp850.png

96_mslp850uk.png

96_thick.png

120_mslp850uk.png

120_mslp850.png

120_thick.png

96_mslp500.png

Blink and you will miss it,very short lived

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, markyo said:

Blink and you will miss it,very short lived

I wouldn't say that, starting from today we have 5 days of heat here.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, William Grimsley said:

I wouldn't say that, starting from today we have 5 days of heat here.

Yep agree down by your neck of the woods,enjoy it and the breakdown,should fingers crossed be good!! Further north by me i'd say 2days max then back down to average. And we won't get the light show i suspect you may get get.:angry:

 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, markyo said:

Yep agree down by your neck of the woods,enjoy it and the breakdown,should fingers crossed be good!! Further north by me i'd say 2days max then back down to average. And we won't get the light show i suspect you may get get.:angry:

 

Ahh, sorry even though I talk as IMBY, I didn't realise you were too. Anyway, back on topic, sorry...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

NAVGEM going for 32c Tuesday and Wednesday in the south

navgem-8-90.png?16-07navgem-8-108.png?16-08

'Fresher' in the south on Thursday with temps in the mid 20's

navgem-8-132.png?16-08

Before another rise next Friday to the high 20's for the south high teens / lower 20's further north

navgem-8-156.png?16-08

Edited by Summer Sun
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

Ahh, sorry even though I talk as IMBY, I didn't realise you were too. Anyway, back on topic, sorry...

Just enjoy the heat and then the breakdown,you may get very lucky storm wise i suspect!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That gfs for Monday and Tuesday just keeps on getting hotter with each run, Now Wednesday seems to be shaping up to be another hot day. At this rate its possible that 34c might be touched in the South on Tuesday, with a good 30c elsewhere. Bear in mind that four days before the 1st July 2015 we were only looking at 31c for that day. :D

Edited by 40*C
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

I wouldn't say that, starting from today we have 5 days of heat here.

Agreed, it's at least a 5 day warm / very warm then hot and humid spell for the south of the uk, the peak should see 90F in the south, hardly blink and miss it:D8)

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...