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Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

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41 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

At which weather station is that 24.5C average taken from? I've never heard of anything nearly that high in the UK- I know the 1981-2010 average at Greenwich is 23.4C for July but that figure for late in the month does sound very high.

I worked out the averages for Leeds Weather Centre myself (sourced from Tutiempo), and for the final week of July and first week of August the average high was 22.0C on the dot (Manchester would probably be similar). I don't think the 24.5C figure for Heathrow at the end of July to be surprising. 22.5C for London at the start of July, 23.5C in the middle and 24.5C at the end would make sense - same for August, but reversed.

Anyway, this discussion is probably best suited to the Summer 2016 thread.

Edited by cheese
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38 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

, 144 looks like the heat might go out with a bang.

Heat? Where? 

Looks fairly zonal to me.

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Very very warm ukmo and latest arpege 12z agrees with ukmo up to 114 hours!!looks like a hot spell early next week!!

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Don't see any proper warm up,low to mid twenties at best,further north even less. South East may scrap 26ish plus for a bit but won't hang on. Still poor in my my view for the heat chasers.

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If some spots avoid the cloud, could be nudging 30c by 144 hours...one day wonder though. Preceding days would be pretty warm, though it's looking decidedly dodgy after!!

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8 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

If some spots avoid the cloud, could be nudging 30c by 144 hours...one day wonder though. Preceding days would be pretty warm, though it's looking decidedly dodgy after!!

Yes let's hope we see something special before 168 hours. The highest temp recorded so far this year was 27.8 for the Uk. If we don't beat that then we are still on course for the least maximum temp for the Uk since at least 1900. We had 27.8 in 1962 also.

Edited by Matthew Wilson

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41 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Heat? Where? 

Looks fairly zonal to me.

It isn't zonal at all MS- the air is coming from the south on ukmo it would be very warm across England - the 144 does look very troughy but im sorry im not seeing zonal in any sense :)

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from what i can see the boundary line between cooler and warmer is very fine indeed.

so possibly either way can be called its ok in the south but nothing  to exciting and would seem very low solar activity is really mixing up the atmosphere.

perhaps next month might see removal of high lat blocking but i doubt it very much reminds me of winter 09/10 when high lat blocking just hung around for weeks shifting from greenland to scandi and so on.

come winter it most likely vanish still at least its only just we still got next month and sept.

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I note the latest T72 FAX has raised SLP around 4mb which generally reflects a movement north of the 1016mb isobar by 200miles. The system headed towards Norway some 6mb less deep which probably has a lot to do with it. 

Going back to Northants post earlier re MOGREPS, I think the wording from Exeter is subtly different today allowing for temporary upper trough incursions though not as grim as extended eps and gefs show.

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ECM looking humid and thundery at t144 could be some big storms around

ECU1-144.GIF?14-0ECU0-144.GIF?14-0

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Saturday through to Monday seems broadly westerly based but with a north/south split, the south sitting in tropical maritime air with 850s around 8-12C. So in any sunshine temperatures could hit the mid or even high twenties.

51-582UK.GIF?14-12   102-582UK.GIF?14-12   126-582UK.GIF?14-12

So the south looks very warm and rather humid, the north looks variable with conditions rather cool early on but improve later as the warmth over the south spreads north.

Tuesday onwards looks complex as we see whether a cold pool developing over the Azores will interact with the approaching Atlantic trough and allow some very hot air sitting over Spain and France to push north over the UK for a time.

The ECM looks interesting...

ECM1-120.GIF?14-0   ECM1-144.GIF?14-0

30C would be possible on Tuesday in the south potentially, not so sure about Wednesday as we see a thundery low move northwards but potentially eastern areas could see another very warm or hot day on Wednesday if this verifies. The UKMO is very similar in evolution out to day 6. The American models (GFS and GEM) not so keen with the former going for a soft breakdown from the north west after a few warm/very warm days whilst the GEM tends to keep conditions settled and warm until the following weekend when it develops a plume event much later on in the run.

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Great summary C.S. Remarkable contrasts in temperature from Nw to Se, from 10c up to 26c! Just shows the significance of wind direction.

image.png

Edited by Matthew Wilson
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The prognosis after midweek is looking a bit worrying! Could be the rest of July in the bin with all this northern blocking shown!

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The ecm still playing with the idea of moving the Iberian low north on Wednesday. But still a week away of course/

ecm_t850_uv_eur_7.png

Edited by knocker
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Comparing like for like, this evening's Ecm 12z is hotter than yesterday's 12z and we are still on track for the warmest weather of the summer so far across the south of the uk and becoming very humid too, very continental and actually this run shows the north warming up next week too. This run indicates a fine spell further south for a time but it would go bang by the middle of next week,, it stays warm and humid to the end with sunshine and thundery showers.

Ukmo 12z is a cracker too!

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GEFS at T132 . Surface trend and 500mb analysis

gfs-ens_mslptrend_eu_12.pnggfs-ens_z500_mslp_eu_23.png

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The ecm 6-10 anomaly not looking too bad. Fairly weak ridging mid Atlantic, positive anomaly Greenland and a weak trough would indicate reasonable warm weather for much of England with Scotland once again being the recipient of most of the unsettled stuff.

In the ext period still looking at positive height build up mid Atlantic with a trough down over the UK which is not good.

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_natl_11.pngecm_eps_t850a_5d_natl_11.png

 

Edited by knocker
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9 minutes ago, knocker said:

The ecm 6-10 anomaly not looking too bad. Fairly weak ridging mid Atlantic, positive anomaly Greenland and a weak trough would indicate reasonable warm weather for much of England with Scotland once again being the recipient of most of the unsettled stuff.

In the ext period still looking at positive height build up mid Atlantic with a trough down over the UK which is not good.

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_natl_11.pngecm_eps_t850a_5d_natl_11.png

 

Is that a ramp knocker?

 

love your input over the last couple of years . Keep it up. And Karl please go back to Frosty

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The Ecm 12z ens mean is a cracker during the first half of next week, largely fine with sunny spells initially and becoming very warm / hot and increasingly humid from the south as we draw continental air north across southern uk with a chance of thunderstorms breaking out and even when the main warmth subsides, it still looks warm and humid with sunshine and thundery showers, it's like the op run in many respects..could get very warm next week further south!

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5 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

 

 

And Karl please go back to Frosty

I will later in the year..I think frosty would melt if the Ecm 12z verifies early next week, and the mean looks very warm as I said above. :- )

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18 z turning on the hairdryer for early part of next week, high 20's across southern England tues :)

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What a cracker the Gfs 18z is next week for southern uk. For a start, this weekend looks fine and warm in the south but then through the first half of next week temps soar with 28/29c or even 30c +  as hot continental air drifts north into the south of the uk with plenty of sunshine and increasing humidity and then it goes crash bang wallop with some big thunderstorms developing, it would be a very thundery and very warm midweek period, including thursday according to this run..very summery!

ukmaxtemp (1).png

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h850t850eu.png

ukstormrisk (3).png

ukmaxtemp (3).png

h850t850eu (1).png

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wow 18z is the hottest run ive seen this year, definitely entering heatwave territory. Go home 18z your drunk!!

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