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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

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Just going back to as why there has been a lack of hurricane activity in the Atlantic...there is currently a lot of dry and dusty air coming out of Africa....added to this unfavourable wind shear, and the ingredients just aren't there to breed storms at the moment.

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Well ecm looks very warm into next week -144 is slack but very warm across England and wales, 

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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well ecm looks very warm into next week -144 is slack but very warm across England and wales, 

Yes it does, from this weekend out to next midweek,  mid to high 20's c for the south, maybe 30c + and generally very warm for the rest of England and Wales with mid 20's c and a probable thundery breakdown ending the fine spell.. hopefully some heat at last for this sorry summer so far but there are signs from Exeter that the rest of this summer will be better across the southern half of the uk!

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I think the models have gone on a little jolly tonight,come morning they will return to normal. Again i say look to J. Holmes, Knocker etc to show the way,trust me there views are the ones to follow for a general trend. Heat is like looking for snow in winter,easier i know for the warm conditions but still a bugger to pin down. 

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Looks to me like the jet lifting north on ukmo but i really prefer wz and its STILL not updated!!

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Good Evening Folks. A continuation of the unsettled summer but perhaps a warmer feel for the south ,but the Atlantic meets the continent right across the Uk next week so look out for fireworks!!!!

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3 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Good Evening Folks. A continuation of the unsettled summer but perhaps a warmer feel for the south ,but the Atlantic meets the continent right across the Uk next week so look out for fireworks!!!!

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We might get a plume next week:shok:

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Interesting how ECM decays the cold front a lot faster on Saturday - but it still makes it all the way south to bring more cloud and limit temperatures to the low 20's at best except perhaps in the far south.

By Sunday, as per the other models in general, the cloud has dispersed in the overnight period and it's a bright day, fresh in the north but warm and muggy in the south (mid-20's achievable in southernmost counties) thanks to the decayed nature of the front preventing a clean sweep away of the tropical maritime air. 

Early next week it seems a shallow trough well south of the UK might help the ridge to linger more than would otherwise be the case. Just how the very warm/hot air moves around within that setup remains to be seen but the trend from ECM seems encouraging for those in the south (perhaps E&W in general with a bit of luck) who are wanting at least a brief taste of 'high summer'. Yet I have known such finely balanced situations to collapse at short notice so it may not be wise to raise the bar too high just yet - but I am daring to dream of a few warm evenings.

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Mmmm not a particularly inspiring outlook for high summer - which we are now about to enter roughly mid July to mid August when the UK on average sees its warmest mean temperatures of the year. The south of England will benefit from weak azores high ridge development enough to keep it fairly settled in the main with sunny spells and perhaps temps nudging mid 20's (not high 20's or low 30's, look at how the forecasts changed tune in 24 hrs when similiar high temps were being predicted by some for the end of this week.). The further north you go the cooler cloudier and wetter it will be - all normal service when we have the jet crashing through the country, the azores high just doesn't look like building in a favourable position this summer, hence we remain at the mercy of the jet and associated trough developments.

The models are painting a slack pressure set up next week, with low heights languishing to our NW, preventing any significant warm uppers from moving in from the continent, and most likely the northern half of the country will see showery cloudy outbreaks, whereas the south will maintain more respectable high summer temperatures and conditions. 

This is quite a pivotal point in the summer, it can be a point of no return so to speak, when the high summer base state sets in, some years we get lucky with a weak ineffectual jet, or a meridional flow pumping up warm southerlies and allowing heights to build out of europe and to our east which when combined with a weak jet can aid the azores high to ridge in and join hands.. alas it doesn't look like happening this summer, there is still time to redeem things, but once again wouldn't be surprised if the chips fall favourably far too late hence as we enter September. My hunch was always for June to be the best month of the summer up here, and for July and August to be fairly poor - indeed the last few weeks have been very poor in the main here despite a very promising start to June. We shall see..

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Still on the edge, no clearer to the exact picture as all of the models paint different outcomes again. Amazing uncertainty at such short range.

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8 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Mmmm not a particularly inspiring outlook for high summer - which we are now about to enter roughly mid July to mid August when the UK on average sees its warmest mean temperatures of the year. The south of England will benefit from weak azores high ridge development enough to keep it fairly settled in the main with sunny spells and perhaps temps nudging mid 20's (not high 20's or low 30's, look at how the forecasts changed tune in 24 hrs when similiar high temps were being predicted by some for the end of this week.). The further north you go the cooler cloudier and wetter it will be - all normal service when we have the jet crashing through the country, the azores high just doesn't look like building in a favourable position this summer, hence we remain at the mercy of the jet and associated trough developments.

The models are painting a slack pressure set up next week, with low heights languishing to our NW, preventing any significant warm uppers from moving in from the continent, and most likely the northern half of the country will see showery cloudy outbreaks, whereas the south will maintain more respectable high summer temperatures and conditions. 

This is quite a pivotal point in the summer, it can be a point of no return so to speak, when the high summer base state sets in, some years we get lucky with a weak ineffectual jet, or a meridional flow pumping up warm southerlies and allowing heights to build out of europe and to our east which when combined with a weak jet can aid the azores high to ridge in and join hands.. alas it doesn't look like happening this summer, there is still time to redeem things, but once again wouldn't be surprised if the chips fall favourably far too late hence as we enter September. My hunch was always for June to be the best month of the summer up here, and for July and August to be fairly poor - indeed the last few weeks have been very poor in the main here despite a very promising start to June. We shall see..

Agree with pretty much all that, i will say the meto update today has really fueled by optimism that something better is round the corner, the only issue is how much of the UK benefits - obviously the south and south east are going to be turning warmer,and the far NW are going to be generally miserable, the question is where is the line for summer or autumn?

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Tomorrow sees a ridge building in, a fair day with light winds. A cool night to follow on Thursday though.

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I really wouldn't rule out tapping into some major heat from the south next week if these GEFS 12z perturbations are anything to go by, there would be a scorcher across France, they are intriguing charts. The mean looks good for warmth.

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Becoming increasingly warm in the south next week possibly hot at times - mid week sees the warmth spreading further north

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Later in the week the highest temps move away with temps falling to the high teens & low 20's

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Edited by Summer Sun

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We appear to be looking at some subtle changes with the upper pattern the first indications of which appeared yesterday. We now have a fairly intense vortex NW Canada, some weak ridging mid Atlantic and a weakening anomalous trough This doesn't make a huge difference to the ten day outlook with a N/S split still likely with temps around average possibly a little above in the south.

But in the ext period this not good news and going by the EPS that has more detail the pattern amplifies with stronger ridging and a more defined trough over the UK. This veers the upper flow NW and potentially brings cooler than average temps to the UK

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Edited by knocker

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The Ecm 12z ens mean certainly looks summery until around the middle of next week across southern uk with temps well into the mid 20's c across England and Wales. I would say it's finely balanced next week as to whether we can tap into the continental heat, the BBC weather don't think so, they say it will just be pleasantly warm next week with a transient ridge or high pressure cell but I have nothing to lose by saying the south at least could become hot and humid through the first half of next week with a chance of T-Storms.

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2 minutes ago, Karl. said:

The Ecm 12z ens mean certainly looks summery until around the middle of next week across southern uk with temps well into the mid 20's c across England and Wales. I would say it's finely balanced next week as to whether we can tap into the continental heat, the BBC weather don't think so, they say it will just be pleasantly warm next week with a transient ridge or high pressure cell but I have nothing to lose by saying the south at least could become hot and humid through the first half of next week with a chance of T-Storms.

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This is an excellent mean chart, Karl. You will struggle to get a much warmer mean that this at T168 even in a heatwave. It's looking increasing like next week will be an extremely different experience of summer at least south of the border. We could be looking at a few days between 25C and 30C. Certainly warm enough both in and out of the sun.

Of course some on here will already be plotting the end of this spell before it even begins (and even now there's still an element of doubt over it) - Knocker rightly points out the threat of increasing heights in the Atlantic - but as I said the other day, patterns once established have a habit of repeating so certainly too soon to call it a flash in the pan.

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4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

This is an excellent mean chart, Karl. You will struggle to get a much warmer mean that this at T168 even in a heatwave. It's looking increasing like next week will be an extremely different experience of summer at least south of the border. We could be looking at a few days between 25C and 30C. Certainly warm enough both in and out of the sun.

Of course some on here will already be plotting the end of this spell before it even begins (and even now there's still an element of doubt over it) - Knocker rightly points out the threat of increasing heights in the Atlantic - but as I said the other day, patterns once established have a habit of repeating so certainly too soon to call it a flash in the pan.

Yes i certainly wouldnt be giving too much of a hoot for charts out in lala land when we have a taste of summer in the reliable timeframe..

As you say, the ecm mean is good out to day 10, that may well change tomorrow for better or worse, but as it stands, it looks good!

Edited by northwestsnow

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10 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

This is an excellent mean chart, Karl. You will struggle to get a much warmer mean that this at T168 even in a heatwave. It's looking increasing like next week will be an extremely different experience of summer at least south of the border. We could be looking at a few days between 25C and 30C. Certainly warm enough both in and out of the sun.

Of course some on here will already be plotting the end of this spell before it even begins (and even now there's still an element of doubt over it) - Knocker rightly points out the threat of increasing heights in the Atlantic - but as I said the other day, patterns once established have a habit of repeating so certainly too soon to call it a flash in the pan.

Yes man with beard there is certainly potential and I know of a few who will dismiss it but I've been looking at charts today from different models showing plume potential. If it goes pear shaped, fair enough but I currently think there is a chance of tapping into continental heat say by tues next week for a few days at least.

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12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes i certainly wouldnt be giving too much of a hoot for charts out in lala land when we have a taste of summer in the reliable timeframe..

As you say, the ecm mean is good out to day 10, that may well change tomorrow for better or worse, but as it stands, it looks good!

Exactly mate

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GFS 18Z so far has an even better shape to bring some very hot weather closer to the UK for mid-next week - that developing low in Biscay will cause a surge from the south ahead of it:

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- would also be highly thundery next Wednesday if it came off.

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OOOOOOO matron ,the 18z brings the 564 DAM line into the UK next week, i would imagine some very warm/hot surface conditions across the SE and not exclusively the SE.

Hopefully some storms thrown in for good measure!!

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