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Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

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no heatwave this weekend:cray:

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The METO update is however an improvement Karl :)

Tis a shame we dont have fergie to share snippets from the pros but one would assume going off the meto that there is some kind of signal for a relaxation of the trough dominated conditions hitherto, we will have to keep an eye on the outputs over the coming days to see if the jet does lift north as suggested by the ecm00z mean..

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Just now, northwestsnow said:

The METO update is however an improvement Karl :)

Tis a shame we dont have fergie to share snippets from the pros but one would assume going off the meto that there is some kind of signal for a relaxation of the trough dominated conditions hitherto, we will have to keep an eye on the outputs over the coming days to see if the jet does lift north as suggested by the ecm00z mean..

Thank gawd, it was horrible yesterday:D

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2 minutes ago, Karl. said:

Thank gawd, it was horrible yesterday:D

Yes, well the theme of previous days was unsettled out to early August, today is a marked improvement, we can but hope mate :)

todays ecm 00z mean-http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem241.html

for next week-http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1921.html

OK, no heatwave, but the trough has lifted north, thats the trend we want to see!

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8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The METO update is however an improvement Karl :)

Tis a shame we dont have fergie to share snippets from the pros but one would assume going off the meto that there is some kind of signal for a relaxation of the trough dominated conditions hitherto, we will have to keep an eye on the outputs over the coming days to see if the jet does lift north as suggested by the ecm00z mean..

 

The GEFS 6z mean looks warm / very warm and fine next week for the south as the Azores high ridges in with temps in the mid 20's celsius range for most of next week...less warm and less settled across northern uk.

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13 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The METO update is however an improvement Karl :)

Tis a shame we dont have fergie to share snippets from the pros but one would assume going off the meto that there is some kind of signal for a relaxation of the trough dominated conditions hitherto, we will have to keep an eye on the outputs over the coming days to see if the jet does lift north as suggested by the ecm00z mean..

I haven't seen the forecast charts as the European site only updates the Thursday run - it was looking awful for the first week of August -  a strong cool signal for four weeks out.

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I think @knocker mentioned an improvement on todays run, let's hope so.

Just for interest, the T2m EPSgram (red control, no deterministic) for Oxford from that very warm ECM run that fooled us all - such a pity we do not get to see these in real time as it would bring a bit more perspective.

467198d370cd2216c70f73c61fa3e1fe.png

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Is it something like a Hurricane we need in the Atlantic to disrupt the never-ending train line Jet stream?

Seems to be some promise of something a bit summary, but only for it to be put back on the next model runs

 

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Well it really does look like summery weather is going to increase across the south of the uk next week and the rest of July and August too according to exeter with the jetstream forced further north but for scotland and n.Ireland it's more of the same cool to average changeable / unsettled atlantic dross in the weeks ahead, what a cruel north / south split.

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24 minutes ago, Odd Spot said:

Is it something like a Hurricane we need in the Atlantic to disrupt the never-ending train line Jet stream?

Seems to be some promise of something a bit summary, but only for it to be put back on the next model runs

 

Certainly Hurricanes will aid in doing that. It was of course Bertha that brought September for the second two thirds of August 2014, and Hurricane Cristobal that brought august back in September. What determines whether a hurricane will make the situation better or worse, I'm not sure. Unfortunately, no signs of such in the models, and I think it's unlikely such weather events will be picked up very well by the models either as and when they do happen.

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Cheers MP-R

Reason I asked really, was as I noticed how quiet it is at present with any big storm depression wise developments in the Atlantic, and remembering from years gone by where a Hurricane or remnants of, is around, they seem to draw up the warm/hot southerlies

Anyway, nice if the models stay as, or something similar for next week with something like summary to look forward to, although possibly less so the further north you are

 

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27 minutes ago, Karl. said:

Well it really does look like summery weather is going to increase across the south of the uk next week and the rest of July and August too according to exeter with the jetstream forced further north but for scotland and n.Ireland it's more of the same cool to average changeable / unsettled atlantic dross in the weeks ahead, what a cruel north / south split.

It's not that cruel. We're not a big country but we're fairly long, Cornwall is closer to Northern Spain than Northern Scotland!

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1 hour ago, Nouska said:

I haven't seen the forecast charts as the European site only updates the Thursday run - it was looking awful for the first week of August -  a strong cool signal for four weeks out.

de04d05dbaebb48f4104a5741e5589bf.png

I think @knocker mentioned an improvement on todays run, let's hope so.

Just for interest, the T2m EPSgram (red control, no deterministic) for Oxford from that very warm ECM run that fooled us all - such a pity we do not get to see these in real time as it would bring a bit more perspective.

467198d370cd2216c70f73c61fa3e1fe.png

I'm looking for some movement north of the Azores HP mid Atlantic, which although not an indication of wholesale pattern change, would perhaps move the eastern movement of systems further north and bring the south, and hopefully areas further north, under longer periods of influence from high pressure. Not necessarily roasting hot but quite pleasant compared to recently. Although having said that today was very pleasant and Sidney even had time to get into dispute with a Jay.

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Edited by knocker
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20 minutes ago, March said:

It's not that cruel. We're not a big country but we're fairly long, Cornwall is closer to Northern Spain than Northern Scotland!

It is cruel for scotland as they don't look like having a summer this year, just loads of midges and cool Atlantic winds with outbreaks of rain..I feel sorry for them.

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The high is slightly further north on the 12z

12z                                                                 06z

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Nothing from UKMO yet is it having problems updating again?

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MUCH improved GFS12z op run with the trough of doom pushed north- i'm back to feeling hopeful again, yes it looks a b it slack so potential for some thundery downpours but it will be warmer with the jet pushed up north, now over to ukmo to spoil the mood....

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The Gfs 12z shows a very warm spell for the south of the uk next week with the Azores ridge building NE across southern uk, actually this weekend looks warm in the south and southeast with 25c on saturday and 23c on sunday but then temps rise each day through the first half of next week, as high as 26/29c, maybe breaking 30c in places across the s / se but then pressure falls a little with an increasing humid feel and a growing chance of heavy thundery showers breaking out in most of England and wales during the second half of next week. For the north of the uk its not as warm and its generally less settled but with some brighter and warmer spells too, at least into southern scotland but for the south it looks very summery next week compared to what we have generally had to endure so far.

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God, GFS isn't giving up on its stark North-South divide is it? Hoping it would have done away with it by now.

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For myself i really hope the North South divide stays as it is,us cave dwellers up North can't cope with such heat!! but seriously i can't see any improvement heat wise for the at least the next 10 to 15 days,be surprised if there was.

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The GEM 12z is very warm and increasingly humid across England and Wales next week and parts of the south would reach the low 30's celsius but after a settled spell pressure falls from the southwest and to me it looks like it would turn thundery for a time but the run ends with the Azores high ridging in again so hopefully a rinse and repeat pattern with heat increasing again.

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Ecm has high further north for saturday again!!looking very warm across england and wales aswell!!

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The models have really struggled with this weekends forecast haven't they? Even now at close range they are flip flopping. Looks like UKMO has given up trying lol.

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ECM looks very warm across much of the UK on Sunday.

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