Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

Recommended Posts

The ecm run is continuation of the interplay between the cooler air to the north and the warmer air to the south with the UK at the centre of the phased dance, So within this scenario it's pointless looking too far ahead. Suffice it to say on this run we are still looking at the inevitable N/S split with the wetter mainly focused on the former and temps no better than varying around the average. But the situation is so volatile and with the models struggling the best advice, IMO, is to just keep a watching brief.

Edited by knocker

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Karl. said:

Is that another dig at me knocker?

It's not funny, you do realise we are nearly half way through July now and summer is 50 percent done, yet most of us are still waiting for it to start...at least I'm doing my bit to lift the gloom in here!:)

I like Knockers photo's of Sidney & I love your enthusiasm for looking for hot weather in Summer & cold in Winter IT'S ALL GOOD FUN apart from the weather....

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ECM looks fairly slack next week- difficult to pin down what surface conditions will be like.

The better runs yesterday morning showed the blocking across Greenland decaying, now the models want to build heights up there again and that spells bad news for the UK, again...:wallbash: that equates to the icelandic trough probably heading for soggy Blightly, again..

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GEM looks pretty good for next week - very warm indeed with HP generally in control.

Although its not one of the 'big 3' it has been known to trump the others, lets hope this is one of those occasions.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
41 minutes ago, Karl. said:

Is that another dig at me knocker?

It's not funny, you do realise we are nearly half way through July now and summer is 50 percent done, yet most of us are still waiting for it to start...at least I'm doing my bit to lift the gloom in here!:)

Hi Karl. Perhaps I'm wrong but I thought the idea in here was to comment on the models, not lift the gloom by posting the best charts and with it your hopes for better weather. I do get the fact you accompany your posts with charts that back up what you are saying, but lets be honest during summer in particular it's not hard to find a set of them or maybe some perts that show impending/potential warmth or even heat, especially when looking beyond T+180hrs. Currently there is nothing that I can see to suggest any significant changes to the disappointingly average weather overall so far this summer; yes the south will see some warmth at times across the next 7-10 days, but for the bulk of us it's more of the same....whether we like it or not. Yes I think we all realise 50% of meteorological summer is almost behind us and no doubt many are as frustrated by that fact as you and I, but building hopes with good charts against overall background signals that don't really support them will ultimately deepen not lift the mood of many imo. Not a rant mate, just an observation.

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, coldcomfort said:

Currently there is nothing that I can see to suggest any significant changes to the disappointingly average weather overall so far this summer;

Disappointingly average?  If the summer had been average so far, you wouldn't be seeing so many complaints.  It's been cooler than average and extremely cloudy.

I see once again that any hint of some normal summer weather is fast going down the drain on the latest runs.

Edited by B87
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It is interesting to see where the upper air is predicted to be sourced from on the anomaly charts. Not good news for fans of heat really in spite of the temperatures we see on some days for the NE of N America. Through much of the 14 day period it starts life somewhere SW of Alaska travels north of the Gt Lakes (the far south of Hudson Bay) then winds its way across the Atlantic, (sometimes from the Greenland/Iceland area, sometimes from a point west of the UK), into the UK. So don't expect the air to feel warm out of any sun. Dewpoints are bound to be rather depressed with air from this source regardless of its track. Of course the occasional day will have air originating from a more southerly point with higher dewpoints.

To misquote someone

'It's been a funny summer'

 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, knocker said:

Sidney is having a hot perturbation

excited.jpg

I think he's just seen number 1 - and now he's so excited, he needs a number 1!

gens-1-0-162.png

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I think he's just seen number 1 - and now he's so excited, he needs a number 1!

gens-1-0-162.png

That's a relief, knocks was taking the pi**:D

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, B87 said:

Disappointingly average?  If the summer had been average so far, you wouldn't be seeing so many complaints.  It's been cooler than average and extremely cloudy.

I see once again that any hint of some normal summer weather is fast going down the drain on the latest runs.

Fair point.....I'll shut up:sorry:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well the ecm 00z mean isn't to bad moving forward,nothing majorly hot but no washout going off next weeks mean at anyrate,shows the trough lifting north although its quite a slack set up ..

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Saturday-Thursday looks quite warm for most of England from GFS (maxima of 25-29C).

Euro makes it Saturday-Tuesday.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Can we keep it to the models to at least one degree or another please. Above is a microcosm of how difficult to moderate it can be at times in here - a bit of humour is fine, but various (and varied - including negative) reactions to it then takes us way off on a tangent. 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

 

'It's been a funny summer'

 

It's been a expletive deleted @!** summer so far but next week could be a rare good one across England and Wales going by the GEFS 00z mean. :- )

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The GEM 00z is a peach of a run if you like warmth / heat with plenty of sunshine and even some thunderstorms next week as humidity rises, temps would reach the low to mid 80's F in parts of the s / e.

 

Rgem1201.gif

Rgem1441.gif

Rgem1442.gif

Rgem1681.gif

Rgem1682.gif

Rgem1922.gif

Rgem2162.gif

Rgem2402.gif

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

GEM looks pretty good for next week - very warm indeed with HP generally in control.

 

 

Yes it's a BEAUTY, hope we get a taste of summer next week. I can't believe our bad luck this year, it's the equivalent of last winter when winter never showed up and reminds me of the pain we coldies endure all too often, hope our luck changes!

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, coldcomfort said:

Hi Karl. Perhaps I'm wrong but I thought the idea in here was to comment on the models, not lift the gloom by posting the best charts and with it your hopes for better weather. I do get the fact you accompany your posts with charts that back up what you are saying, but lets be honest during summer in particular it's not hard to find a set of them or maybe some perts that show impending/potential warmth or even heat, especially when looking beyond T+180hrs. Currently there is nothing that I can see to suggest any significant changes to the disappointingly average weather overall so far this summer; yes the south will see some warmth at times across the next 7-10 days, but for the bulk of us it's more of the same....whether we like it or not. Yes I think we all realise 50% of meteorological summer is almost behind us and no doubt many are as frustrated by that fact as you and I, but building hopes with good charts against overall background signals that don't really support them will ultimately deepen not lift the mood of many imo. Not a rant mate, just an observation.

Hi coldcomfort,

I take on board your observations / criticism but it's just my style, I like to think I give a reasonably balanced view of the run I'm describing but I also add a dash of optimism and inject some humour when the charts allow it and by the same token, if it's a poor run I don't hold back either..it's just the way I post.:)

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Karl. said:

Hi coldcomfort,

I take on board your observations / criticism but it's just my style, I like to think I give a reasonably balanced view of the run I'm describing but I also add a dash of optimism and inject some humour when the charts allow it and by the same token, if it's a poor run I don't hold back either..it's just the way I post.:)

Fair points....well looking at the 06 GFS out to 144hrs it really is a case of close, but just not quite close enough, at least not north of the M4 corridor. Obviously the boundary of summer will wax and wane across subsequent runs, but at this stage we just cannot seem to consistently build pressure high enough or far enough north to give hope of protracted warm, settled weather nationally....which is becoming almost as frustrating as being stuck under a strongly mobile pattern! All that said, compared to what most of us have endured across the last 5 or 6 weeks, there are grounds for at least some optimism imo....I'll take that for now!

   

Edited by coldcomfort
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The EPS anomalies this morning are telling the familiar tale in the 6-10 period of maintaining a westerly upper flow so any lengthy warm spells will be at a premium. Taking John's point of the source of the airstream rather exemplifies the N/S split. Towards the end of the 14 day period it's supporting the GEFS with ridging into Greenland which is not particularly good news, hopefully it'll come to nowt, as this would likely plunge the UK temps below average again.

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.pngecm_eps_t850a_5d_natl_11.png

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Gfs 6z op run shows the south having a summery spell next week with temps into the mid 20's celsius and a little higher at times, becoming more humid too, there is a chance of isolated thundery showers next week in the south but largely fine and warm / very warm. Further north / northwest it looks cooler and more changeable / unsettled but still with some fine and pleasant weather at times but for the south it looks good next week.

h500slp.png

h500slp (1).png

ukmaxtemp.png

ukprec.png

h500slp (2).png

ukmaxtemp (1).png

ukprec (1).png

h500slp (3).png

hgt500-1000.png

ukmaxtemp (2).png

ukmaxtemp (3).png

h500slp (4).png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

From an IMBY point of view, we might get away with a few decent days down here....the north look like being stuck in our semi permanent autumn cycle of disappointing temperatures, wind and some rain.
The overall pattern (as others have backed up) is simply not conducive at the moment to any sort of sustained settled spell, with pressure too high and too low in all the wrong places to favour the UK. Eastern Europe is having another good summer, looks like that's the place to be for some heat...(Kiev next 5 days - 31/32/31/30/34/).

Edited by mb018538
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hmm, Glasgow temps next six days.. 17/19/17/14/13/13...semi permanent Autumn seems right MB.... I seem to remember feeling the same last year too... Summer last year for us was a few days at beginning of July.... This year ... A spell in June? Thoroughly depressing really.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It looks very hot in Spain and Portugal on them gfs 06z charts. If this evolving of the pattern continues then August could bring some very hot and humid conditions here, hopefully not just for London as I'm fed up with this North/South divide every summer its like a sickness.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking at the next few days, a ridge of high pressure pushes in from the west tomorrow so it looks a fine and pleasantly warm day, the ridge subsides southwards on Friday but southern areas again look fine and a degree or two warmer but a warm front attached to a depression to the northwest pushes rain across Scotland and northern england.. now the weekend, southern england could again be largely fine and warmer and more humid with temps around 25c but fronts will be pushing down across the rest of the uk where it won't be anything like as warm with some rain followed by sunshine and a few showers, a cool front slipping across the SE by Sat night or sun morning..  so, no heat this weekend, indeed, sunday looks the cooler and fresher of the two nationwide.

160714.png

160715.png

160716.png

160717.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
59 minutes ago, 40*C said:

It looks very hot in Spain and Portugal on them gfs 06z charts. If this evolving of the pattern continues then August could bring some very hot and humid conditions here, hopefully not just for London as I'm fed up with this North/South divide every summer its like a sickness.

It's been hot across Iberia for weeks and even parts of SW France have seen the high 30's, so no reason to a suppose any of that heat will migrate this far north as we go into the final month of meteorological summer imo, though of course it might. Whilst it's hugely galling to sit here in 13c blowtorch SW'erlies in Jan while Greece gets sub zero temps and snow, seeing the 15c 850mb line pushing as far north as the Arctic coast of Russia next week really does take the proverbial:wallbash:   In fact looking at Noril'sk, deep inside the Arctic Circle and the most northerly city in the world, temps from Fri-Tue will be in the range 27-31c!

Edited by coldcomfort
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...