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Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

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4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Pretty amazing that ECM has joined the others in downgrading again! What's causing such massive swings between runs...

The Jet stream is one of the issues it just can't shift far enough north or weaken enough

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There is nothing disappointing about the Gfs 12z op run if you live in England and Wales because it becomes very warm or hot and anticyclonic next week with largely fine conditions but much cooler and less settled for n.Ireland and scotland but further south it looks summery, a risk of a few heavy thundery showers but plenty of sunshine, a brief cooler blip from the northwest before the Azores high builds in strongly later in the run with temperatures rising again.. pretty much a dream run for southern uk next week onwards.

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The 12z gfs run is much better for high pressure next week and as such quite a bit warmer. Here are the 06z and 12z for comparison.

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Edited by fine wine
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turning into a case of 'blink and you'll miss it' ... as you were.

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ECM 0z days 4.5 -9.5 and 12z days 4-9

****

Wonder what tomorrow will bring.

 

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For a while until around thursday of next week the GEM 12z is a cracker with very warm / hot and increasingly humid classic continental conditions with a growing risk of thunderstorms following the anticyclonic spell. The Gfs 12z is better longevity wise but this gem run indicates potentially 30c + for a time, any form of heat is sadly lacking this summer so I would be happy with either. The Ecm 12z shows the uncertainty but I think we have a shot at summery weather next week, it's not over just because the ecm says no, we know how this model flip flops as today has again proved with the very warm 00z.. interesting times ahead.

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Edited by Karl.
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I think judging by the ensemble split this is a long way from done and dusted...

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It wouldn't be the British weather if we weren't pulled through the ringer waiting to see the outcome of our summer.

GFS and GEM look great but it's one run and we know how fickle the models are! I'd hesitate to call the ECM more 'realistic' just because it doesn't show a nationwide heatwave but it'd be nice if it got on board over the next few runs.

Oh, and a message to GFS - stick with it and stop flip-flopping! :D

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A snapshot of the charts tomorrow, a day like today sunshine/showers. A fresher less humid feel once again. Longer term referring to Tamara's post for July is very helpful and educational explaining the current setup. Explains much:)

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High pressure to the south and low pressure to the north and the 200mb streamlines running straight down the middle as one would expect, albeit not that strong. The situation for much of the run,

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The GEFS 12z mean shows plenty of support for Azores high influence next week, at least across the southern half of the UK, becoming warm / very warm with temps around the mid 20's celsius range with the best weather across England and wales.

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55 minutes ago, Karl. said:

For a while until around thursday of next week the GEM 12z is a cracker with very warm / hot and increasingly humid classic continental conditions with a growing risk of thunderstorms following the anticyclonic spell. The Gfs 12z is better longevity wise but this gem run indicates potentially 30c + for a time, any form of heat is sadly lacking this summer so I would be happy with either. The Ecm 12z shows the uncertainty but I think we have a shot at summery weather next week, it's not over just because the ecm says no, we know how this model flip flops as today has again proved with the very warm 00z.. interesting times ahead.

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yes Frosty, certainly get them out if these runs come off! looks a seriously hot day that

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18 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

yes Frosty, certainly get them out if these runs come off! looks a seriously hot day that

Let's hope we are on track for a break from this miserable cool and cloudy pattern which has had the upper hand since June 1st. I see signs of hope, I know others on here do too and all the effort we put into this search for warmth should pay us something back soon.

Edited by Karl.
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The EPS is showing little sign of budging over the 14 day period so previous comments regarding the outlook apply. Meanwhile

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A fair 18Z so far. Not wall to wall sunshine, not always hot but some fairly decent days between now and next Wednesday for all.

I'm drawn to all that heat building to the south by T180 though ... not far away from a pattern which would allow it to seep northwards in the days after...

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The ridge later this week doesn't progress very far north as the depression between Iceland and Greenland brings fronts in from the west from Friday. It looks at the moment as if a cold front will move SE over the weekend and it's quite possible that that northern half of the country will get the best of the sunshine, Temps a little above average in the south and below in the north. This N/S split continues into next week where it could get quite warm in the south but that's best left for the moment.

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Edited by knocker
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UKMO is almost a non event....GFS hangs on to a smidgen of heat, but all of these are pale imitations of the high pressure that appeared across the board on yesterdays 00z runs. Looking like the Atlantic will probably win, just a question of timing. The ensembles still vary massively at day 4, so plenty to iron out. We could still get an ok spell of weather down south, but I think up north it's looking like a non starter.

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The GEFS 00z mean looks really summery next week across England and Wales with mid to upper 20's celsius as the Azores high ridges in. There are also some very warm / hot perturbations. :- )

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Edited by Karl.
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ECM looks broadly similar to UKMO, in that the south might get a couple of warm-ish days here or there, but basically it's nothing to get overly excited about. Oh well, the excitement was fun while it lasted!

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33 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

UKMO is almost a non event....GFS hangs on to a smidgen of heat, but all of these are pale imitations of the high pressure that appeared across the board on yesterdays 00z runs. Looking like the Atlantic will probably win, just a question of timing. The ensembles still vary massively at day 4, so plenty to iron out. We could still get an ok spell of weather down south, but I think up north it's looking like a non starter.

Indeed.....another relatively poor set of runs regarding summery weather, especially in the north, where it will again be pretty miserable at times. As expected the overnight runs look a blend of the dire stuff of Monday and the overly good charts of yesterday (as often proves to be the case), with distantly average conditions prevailing into week 4 of July on a national scale.  As ever favoured parts of the S and E should see some decent warmth, but farther N and W any potentially warmer air will be accompanied by a good deal of low cloud, mist and/or drizzle, effectively making it's presence useless unless muggy nights float your boat.

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Will the Jetstream ever get the UK out of its sights?  The summer will never take off while we are under this constant pattern.  I despair. Is there any reason why the Jetstream is not moving further south this year?

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3 minutes ago, knocker said:

Sidney is having a hot perturbation

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Is that another dig at me knocker?

It's not funny, you do realise we are nearly half way through July now and summer is 50 percent done, yet most of us are still waiting for it to start...at least I'm doing my bit to lift the gloom in here!:)

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If you want hot sunny weather the jet need to move North - and don't worry it will move North come November/December & stay there all Winter.

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