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Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

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3 hours ago, Karl. said:

I bet you will still be saying that in mid August, oh joy:D

Well      ..not quite. The first week in August looks quite promising after a quick glance at the EC32 :closedeyes:

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Well a lot of head scratching this morning from the coroner as the dead patient he was doing a post-mortem on has got up overnight and walked out of the building.

GFS

gfs-0-108.png?0   gfs-0-132.png?0

114-582UK.GIF?12-0   138-582UK.GIF?12-0

A decent weekend for England and Wales, very warm on both days too with temperatures up to potentially 26-28C on Sunday.

The UKMO also shows an improvement on yesterdays runs

UW120-21.GIF?12-06   UW144-21.GIF?12-06

The GEM has also moved to a more settled weekend so it will be interesting to see if the ECM follows suit this morning.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Yup pretty much agree with the above from the GFS. Sunny with showers for today and tomorrow before a ridge moves in from the west on Thursday which gets flattened on Saturday as systems travel NE leaving the UK in a very slack pressure area on Sunday which could be the warmest day.

gfs_6hr_precip_eur3_11.pnggfs_6hr_precip_eur3_19.pnggfs_t2maf_slp_eur3_24.png

PPVO89.gif

 

Edited by knocker
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Well I mentioned in my post yesterday morning about expecting a bounce-back but I didn't quite expect that! These morning's charts are completely different for the UK (fair play to UKMO, it was a lot closer to this on the 12Z run yesterday - and still waiting for ECM of course). Now looking hot and sunny for most this weekend again.

What on earth happened to throw all the models out like that yesterday? Missing data? Nick Sussex, where are you!! (Hibernating for the summer in his French pool, I imagine!)

Edited by Man With Beard
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It threw everybody for sure....2 days ago Tomasz was saying about the heat, only for John Hammond to state last night that 24 hours is a long time in weather terms and everything had changed. Could it be that 24 hours has proved to be a long time once again as we revert back to what we saw a few days back? The 00z GFS isn't an outlier either, virtually all members show it warm and sunny for the weekend (in the south anyway). Looking forward to what ECM shows us!

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I'm not that sure about sunny for Saturday if the cold front moves SE during the day.

Edited by knocker
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Looking like that pesky Spainish plume has got lost and decided to stay at home!. Stand by what i said regarding August,we could well see the heat build then,wouldn't count on much for the rest of July though

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19 minutes ago, knocker said:

I'm not that sure about sunny for Saturday if the cold front moves SE during the day.

That will certainly be the fly in the ointment, so to speak. On the 00z GFS it doesn't make it until well past the weekend....and forecast maxima are 25c Saturday, 27c Sunday, 28c Monday, 24c Tuesday.
This is of course open to more change.

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I must say, I've never seen such volatility in the models at just 4-5 days range as to completely mess with even a great many professional forecasting institutions.

Yesterday's sudden wipeout of the weekend ridge seemed unbelievable but now so does this morning's recovery of it! Perhaps going to show that the trend in GLAAM/GWO is not the be-all and end-all does not rule out short-term fluctuations capable of changing the UK's fortunes for a few days. Well, with any luck (amended to put my point across accurately).

Edited by Singularity
clarification
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8 minutes ago, markyo said:

Looking like that pesky Spainish plume has got lost and decided to stay at home!. Stand by what i said regarding August,we could well see the heat build then,wouldn't count on much for the rest of July though

Keep watching, keep watching ... the ECM builds the heat again from the south early next week

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ECM is slightly different in that the weekend isn't as warm as the UKMO/GFS, instead the heat comes by midweek. Different outcome, but warm none the less.

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Hot off the press

Ecm max temps 1800z  Monday 27C anywhere SE of a line Bristol to the Humber. Tuesday possible 28C anywhere south of the far north. Weds cooler and 24C in parts of England.

Health warning.

This is subject to change tomorrow.

Edited by knocker
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48 minutes ago, knocker said:

I'm not that sure about sunny for Saturday if the cold front moves SE during the day.

Very good spot Knocker - sometimes the "Atlantic " view doesn't pick up little kinks in the pressure that well - it needs an eagle eye like yours to pick them up

ECU1-120.GIF?12-12

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Summer is coming according to the Ecm 00z op this morning, I'm sick of the sight of those green / yellow blobs (T850 hPA) and it would be nice to see the oranges and reds taking over! Anyway this run shows temps into the mid to upper 20's celsius next week across most of the UK along with plenty of sunshine.:D

96_mslp850.png

120_mslp850.png

144_mslp850.png

168_mslp850.png

192_mslp850.png

216_mslp850.png

240_mslp850.png

240_mslp500.png

168_thick.png

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21 hours ago, coldcomfort said:

Is there really any need for this kind of response?

Whilst the general downgrade is disappointing (to say the least!) as others have said not all the models have been onboard the onset of summer across the last 24-48hrs, so given the history when this is the case I'm not sure we should be entirely surprised at the recent turn of events. I can't help thinking having swung one way there will be some sort of movement/adjustment back towards drier, warmer conditions this weekend across the next day or two, especially for the south, but it has to be said that any signs of the pattern change needed to deliver some hot summer weather that most of us crave looks as far away as ever at this stage.

At the end of the day however what we are seeing is pretty much what summers deliver in the UK - just as winter cold is always a bonus, so is summer heat, expecting rather than hoping for either WILL more often than not result in significant disappointment imho.

24 hours is indeed a long time in weather! Yes I expected some sort of movement/adjustment back towards drier, warmer conds, but what we have seen overnight is a complete volte face from both GFS and ECM. So just as like this time yesterday, I will remain very sceptical about what is currently being progged actually delivering...in fact I think we will see another movement/adjustment back to other way across the next few runs. That said, even if this does occur things look a good deal more rosy than they did just 24hrs ago, especially for the south, where it might actually feel like summer this weekend if you use your imagination....:D

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Earlier I heard Carol Kirkwood saying what a transformation, I thought she was talking about knocker:shok:

Anyway, those of us who have been hopefully posting anticyclonic Fi charts and dreaming of a pattern change look like being rewarded!8)

gefs_t2ma_5d_eur_41.png.a4a3411e1b47a22063bc608cc46a2bce.png

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8 minutes ago, Karl. said:

Earlier I heard Carol Kirkwood saying what a transformation, I thought she was talking about knocker:shok:

Anyway, those of us who have been hopefully posting anticyclonic Fi charts and dreaming of a pattern change look like being rewarded!8)

gefs_t2ma_5d_eur_41.png.a4a3411e1b47a22063bc608cc46a2bce.png

Your cherry tree looks like bearing fruit, Karl! It's yet another reminder to us about being sucked in by one run (yesterday 00z). It's now looking like the northerly movement of the jet, picked up in so many ensembles in the past week, will be realised. A much better outlook for the rest of July therefore. Or am I also just getting sucked in by this one run??!!

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3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Your cherry tree looks like bearing fruit, Karl! It's yet another reminder to us about being sucked in by one run (yesterday 00z). It's now looking like the northerly movement of the jet, picked up in so many ensembles in the past week, will be realised. A much better outlook for the rest of July therefore. Or am I also just getting sucked in by this one run??!!

Well I hope so, I've been mocked enough for my positive hopeful posting of anticyclonic charts so I hope it was worth all the effort after all :D

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3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Your cherry tree looks like bearing fruit, Karl! It's yet another reminder to us about being sucked in by one run (yesterday 00z). It's now looking like the northerly movement of the jet, picked up in so many ensembles in the past week, will be realised. A much better outlook for the rest of July therefore. Or am I also just getting sucked in by this one run??!!

Well bar yesterday mornings blip ECM and UKMO did show a warm up for a good few runs so much so the beeb even talked about it on Sunday night

Yesterday morning was a disappointment but last night did improve and this has continued this morning

Yes we could see a flip to to yesterday mornings offerings but hopefully not its all down to the pesky old jet stream and where its gonna sit

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On 11/07/2016 at 05:25, CreweCold said:

Further to last post above, GFS 0z not interested in the slightest in a weekend warm up- if anything it's even more troughing dominated than the 18z with temperatures around 20C across the Midlands on Friday before the cold front pushes through during the early hours of Saturday

h500slp.png

h850t850eu.png

We then head in to a typically westerly dominated regime....driest weather in far SE and wettest further NW but temperatures no great shakes for anyone

h500slp.png

Jet stream fairly strong too

hgt300.png

GEM 0z goes flat westerly next week too

gem-0-192.png?00

Me thinks the Metoffice may have been a tad hasty here with regards to the end of week/weekend prospects....On to the ECM

What a difference 24 hrs makes...

Yesterday morning

h500slp.pngh850t850eu.png

This morning

h500slp.pngh850t850eu.png

 

Edited by Summer Sun
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All those talking about pattern change and northward movement of the jet (what there is of it) is there any actual evidence of this or are we looking at fluctuations within the same pattern?

gfs-ens_uv200_atl_43.png

Edited by knocker
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4 minutes ago, knocker said:

 is there any actual evidence of this or are we looking at fluctuations within the same pattern?

gfs-ens_uv200_atl_43.png

No I'm with yoda:shok::D:bomb:

c1d30b27dbb076e7de4aee72414f4812bfd8a1adac8664ecbb384fbeb8fd1ae4.jpg

gefs_t2ma_5d_eur_41.png.a4a3411e1b47a22063bc608cc46a2bce.png

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3 minutes ago, knocker said:

All those talking about pattern change and northward movement of the jet (what there is of it) is there any actual evidence of this or are we looking at fluctuations within the same pattern?

gfs-ens_uv200_atl_43.png

Agreed ..to my untrained eye still looks to be a fairly mobile pattern with areas of higher pressure moving across then away into the containment then back to square one and repeat...so drier warmer spell followed by more unsettled spell and back to drier warmer spell...

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4 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

Agreed ..to my untrained eye still looks to be a fairly mobile pattern with areas of higher pressure moving across then away into the containment then back to square one and repeat...so drier warmer spell followed by more unsettled spell and back to drier warmer spell...

Which isn't so bad, so long as we actually get the drier warmer spells in between lol.

Looking better for the weekend (better be as I've got a barbeque to be doing on Saturday afternoon!)

h850t850eu.png

Then more changeable into early next week:

h850t850eu.png

Before signs of the Azores High arriving with a bit more force, delivering something more akin to July in FI:

h850t850eu.png

The most irritating thing about this pattern is that it wouldn't be a horrendous pattern to be in if there jet stream were where it should be. Unfortunately it would still be below par towards the north/Scotland, but the majority of England and Wales would garner something better if everything moved north a coupe of hundred miles.

Fingers crossed for a more settled outlook repeating in future runs. I'd certainly love to come back from Spain on the 30th to a continuation of summer.

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