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Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

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The best part of the Gfs 12z op run is the last 3 days when the Azores high finally builds in properly and shunts the jetstream further north, they actually look like summer charts towards the end of the run. Yes I'm cherry picking I know, showing my bias for wanting summer to arrive..not a crime is it?:D

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The end of the Gem 12z looks a bit better with high pressure about to attempt to build in, as you can gather, up to that point it's either changeable or unsettled with temps lower than we deserve in mid to late July.

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Still hope of better weather two weeks out.

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A slight uptick in fortunes on the 12z ops.

UKMO looks better then this morning for sure-

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm961.html

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.html

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html

If i were being picky im not keen on the azores high being pulled west , potentially opening the door to that permanent icelandic low ..

 

 

 

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The GEFS anomalies tonight show no significant changes in the upper air patter for the next 14 days. Usual caveats apply regarding a the obvious changes in day by day variations in the det. runs that will occur in this mobile pattern. I hear moves are afoot to take away Frosty's cherry tree. Oh the wickedness of it.

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Edited by knocker
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This is better than I expected, the GEFS 12z mean shows high pressure ridging into southern counties at the weekend and then next week the Azores high ridges NE into the southwest / south of the UK bringing largely fine and warm weather, at least for England and Wales so the outlook could actually be nicer than we have seen so far based on this evidence at least!:D

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5 minutes ago, knocker said:

I hear moves are afoot to take away Frosty's cherry tree. Oh the wickedness of it.

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At least frosty is trying to lift the gloom of this God awful summer knocker:D..and the GEFS 12z mean doesn't look trough dominated from late this week onwards, quite a lot of Azores influence.

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The Ecm 12z op run shows a ridge of high pressure arriving from the west on Thursday which lasts through Friday as warmer uppers flood in from the southwest which gives the south a warm fri/sat with temps into the mid 20's celsius, sunday becomes cooler and fresher with the ridge flattened but next week it looks decent in the south under the influence of ridging and temps starting to rise again,  most of the changeable / unsettled and relatively cooler weather is further to the n / nw.

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3 hours ago, Scorcher said:

My response was triggered by the frustration I have with certain members who only seem to appear when the outlook is poor for fine summer weather. The poster I quoted is a prime example. I make no secret of the fact that I prefer mild weather in the winter, but I hardly ever post in the forum at all in the winter- last winter I could have had a field day saying 'I told you so' but I saw no need. There is no need for the self-congratulatory tone in certain posts.

Interesting to see the BBC are now showing increased cloud for Friday compared to this morning's forecast- but are still showing temperatures reaching the mid 20s in the South East at the moment for the weekend. It would certainly back up the changes in this morning's runs from the UKMO and ECM.

 

 

Good Evening Folks! If the post above is  a result of my comments ,well Im sorry !!! I like Summer weather in Summer ,and Winter weather in Winter!!! I Only report and comment on what the models show and the experience Ive had over the years. The plume for the end of the week is over, the jet stream is too strong ,it feels more like September than July!

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I know that knocker won't agree with me, he never does..:D but I just scanned through the GEFS 12z perturbations and found plenty of anticyclonic scenarios, I haven't showed them all and there are others with high pressure just across southern areas but most of these show widespread fine and warm weather from day 10 or a little before onwards, there are only a few unsettled perturbations, most have an anticyclonic flavour, the mean looks pretty good at T+240 with Azores influence..these charts as far as I'm concerned justify hope of better times not too far away!

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The London ENS shows pressure at or above 1020mb from Thursday on-wards

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Manchester doesn't look too bad either

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More unsettled in Scotland though some dry days mixed in

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I think we are on our way to some better conditions, at last,

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Possibly. I remain very cautious having already having had my fingers burned (today) through overconfidence when catching up with the then output on Sunday.

 

More runs needed etc etc.

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ECM ens shows a west or south westerly flow setting up from later this week, some rain or showers likely at times for all parts, but some drier periods as well the longest of these will probably be the further east you are

EDU1-96.GIF?11-0EDU1-144.GIF?11-0EDU1-192.GIF?11-0EDU1-240.GIF?11-0

Edited by Summer Sun

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Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows weak Azores ridging influence across southern uk for most of the time from late this week onwards and warm weather too with temps generally low to mid 20's celsius with southern England being warmest. It's not showing a settled outlook by any means but the south would have more in the way of fine and warm spells whereaa the north of the UK looks generally more changeable / unsettled with more of a cooler / fresher Atlantic airflow compared to the rather warmer influence further south. I prefer the GEFS 12z mean which has a sw / ne aligned jet with a stronger Azores ridge next week.. anyways, south is best! :)

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No significant change with EPS and NOAA anomalies this evening regarding the upper air pattern for the nest 14 days. Still low pressure over the Pole, ridging eastern Europe and of course the trough to our NW and HP to the south west.The position and orientation of the latter two will very during the period so although the UK will remain in an upper westerly flow the phase changes between the interaction of the two air masses will bring variable weather to the UK with the south prone to the drier and warmer condition and the reverse for the north. Temps will vary around the average, but cooler in the north and warmer in the south which has conveniently got this evening's self-evident comment out of the way.

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.png610day.03.gif814day.03.gif

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I sometimes wish I lived in the south, even crap summers like this one are at least that bit warmer but I'm seeing positive signs of increasing Azores high influence through the second half of July, especially from the GEFS which looks like benefiting the south most of all :- )

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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

The London ENS shows pressure at or above 1020mb from Thursday on-wards

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Manchester doesn't look too bad either

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More unsettled in Scotland though some dry days mixed in

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Yes Gavin it does look a bit better. Problem is here, higher pressure doesn't always mean a lot in a westerly flow- we often have a lot of cloud in these parts with such a flow, even with ridges of high pressure as we saw a few days ago. We are in desperate need of more of a Continental flow which often produces sunnier conditions even with lower pressure than being shown there.

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54 minutes ago, knocker said:

No significant change with EPS and NOAA anomalies this evening regarding the upper air pattern for the nest 14 days. Still low pressure over the Pole, ridging eastern Europe and of course the trough to our NW and HP to the south west.The position and orientation of the latter two will very during the period so although the UK will remain in an upper westerly flow the phase changes between the interaction of the two air masses will bring variable weather to the UK with the south prone to the drier and warmer condition and the reverse for the north. Temps will vary around the average, but cooler in the north and warmer in the south which has conveniently got this evening's self-evident comment out of the way.

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Now come on. You have said "no significant change on the NOAA" - did you stop to check yesterday's 6-10 day chart?

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The influence of the trough has moved hundreds of miles east since yesterday, and as a result has far more influence over the UK. Your post was very misleading and lacked the necessary evidence to support your claim ;)

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Massive massive changes already on the current 18z gfs!high pressure much further north for this weekend!didnt see this coming especially so early on in the run!

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I rarely post, but I was just looking at our two hottest summers in the CET record, 1826 and 1976, below are the maximum daily temperatures in London over the two summers. (Series 1=1826, Series 2=1976).

Very similar summers, dry and hot with notable heatwaves in late June/early July.

It's amazing to see what a summer can produce!

 

apologies if slightly off topic!! 

 

 

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Edited by Joseph Watts
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25 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Now come on. You have said "no significant change on the NOAA" - did you stop to check yesterday's 6-10 day chart?

610hghts.20160710.fcst.gif

The influence of the trough has moved hundreds of miles east since yesterday, and as a result has far more influence over the UK. Your post was very misleading and lacked the necessary evidence to support your claim ;)

Looking forward to knockers reply..might stay up all night, on second thoughts...nah:whistling:

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According to the 18z we are back on for very warm to hot weather over the weekend across England and Wales. Let's see what happens tomorrow morning although we are now that bit closer in terms of how close the warm up is.

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Edited by fine wine
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What an Excellent Gfs 18z for the south of the UK from the weekend onwards with lots of high pressure, warmth and sunshine..temps in the low to mid 20's celsius.

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7 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

Now come on. You have said "no significant change on the NOAA" - did you stop to check yesterday's 6-10 day chart?

610hghts.20160710.fcst.gif

The influence of the trough has moved hundreds of miles east since yesterday, and as a result has far more influence over the UK. Your post was very misleading and lacked the necessary evidence to support your claim ;)

If it had moved hundreds of miles east it would be the other side of Scandinavia although quite what you mean by the influence of the trough is up for grabs I would have thought the more important issue was the configuration of the trough and the HP areas which has veered the upper flow to some extent but I tried to cover that in my spiel. So at the end of the day I settled for no significant changes in the 14 day outlook taking into account the NOAA 8-14 and the EPS as well. I do not consider this very misleading but you are, of course, quite at liberty to disagree with that general assessment

EDIT

And for the sake of accuracy I didn't say what you are quoting me as saying

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"no significant change on the NOAA"

But

Quote

No significant change with EPS and NOAA anomalies this evening regarding the upper air pattern for the nest 14 days

 

Edited by knocker

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