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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

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12 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It's not over until....

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Hahaa yes you are correct Karl, like you i fly the flag for cold in winter and warmth in summer.

The ecm has really left me flat as the azores high this morning though, but as always we will dust ourselves down and the fight for something resembling summer must go on.

The ecm at day 10 is loaded with potential, the trouble is, the day 5 chart was loaded with potential last night so my faith in ECM is again dented.

 

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14 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Hahaa yes you are correct Karl, like you i fly the flag for cold in winter and warmth in summer.

The ecm has really left me flat as the azores high this morning though, but as always we will dust ourselves down and the fight for something resembling summer must go on.

The ecm at day 10 is loaded with potential, the trouble is, the day 5 chart was loaded with potential last night so my faith in ECM is again dented.

 

Agreed, we must keep fighting the good fight until we get what we want, even if it takes until mid / late August.:)

Edited by Frosty.

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Not unusual in my opinion to have this Atlantic driven weather this time of year.

Certainly given that other global factors are influencing the current weather pattern we seemed "locked" into.

Does seem though this is the longest Atlantic driven pattern this time of year I know of, but it's happened in the past. And in recent years.

I think this current pattern won't be leaving us any time soon with perhaps July also dominated by westerly winds and further north a cooler more north north west feed.

But, as ever, a lot of people forget, the UK can and does grab hold of some warm very warm weather in August and September, being able in the right setup to tap into the very warm land mass to our south. With the cool down into autumn starting in October.

I think it's simply a case of being patient for those of us wanting some "proper" warmth. 

Time will tell, but even looking past day 3 seems problematic currently with the models trying to grasp "what will happen next.." 

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The EPS is maybe looking at a half decent quite warm day Saturday but as ever the position of the upper trough is crucial and one can't help wondering what influence the cut off low in the eastern Med is having on proceedings/ In the longer time frame no significant change in the overall pattern.

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yet again, more off topic chatter by some......it really is getting very frustrating constantly having to remind some members that this thread is for model output discussion only.....which part of 'model output discussion only' don't some of you get?

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The Ecm 00z ens mean has certainly flattened out compared to yesterday with the Azores high more suppressed and generally lower heights to the northwest so it means a broadly westerly changeable zonal flow with the most unsettled conditions further north and the best of any fine and warmer weather across southern areas, the one carrot left dangling is the Ecm 00z T+240 op chart which looks pleasant.

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2 hours ago, knocker said:

. Well at the moment nobody is right as it is still to be resolved. And I take issue with statements like this

And your

because unless they are supported by evidence based reasoning they are meaningless waffle. And not only that for people who are on a learning curve they are completely misleading..There was enough of that yesterday with talk of Spanish Plumes.

Going back to yesterday's evening runs there was such a discrepancy between the GFS and ecm ops that warning signals should have been loud and clear, particularly as the EPS didn't support the ops. So when you get down to the nitty gritty one of the runs has to be wrong and possible both. The fact that people chose to jump on the ecm bandwagon because it was showing what they wanted to see was straight out of the cold mafia's handbook.

Yes the models are struggling at the moment, and yes the last two ecm runs look very dubious and almost certainly wrong, but I fail to see how misleading unsupported generalisations help the situation or anyone else.

Knocker, once get a spare couple of hours (which may be in about 10 years time), I will collate my evidence from the model archives. To me, quoting the official NH statistics on model accuracy without applying them to our local situation and actual physical model output is doing exactly the same thing. 

A simple way for those learning about the models to get useful evidence  would be to go back through this thread and count the number of times people posted "The ECM has moved towards the GFS" or vice versa. This is called "observational evidence" and is acceptable in scientific research if done fairly.

Edited by Man With Beard

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14 hours ago, knocker said:

This really is a bit ridiculous. It was never a plume any way and in this very mobile set up making snap judgements on every det. run on an evolution that is still a week away, sometimes before they are even off the press, really is futile. How about waiting to see how the upper air is doing or at least some agreement between the models.

There is nothing ridiculous about laying down what I think about british summers. I also recall some days shortly after the summery beginning of June which charts were showing a full week of warmth that didn't come off, and yet how many times have we seen this in the models before? So just because I choose not to be enthusiastic or positive over one model op isn't being ridiculous. - Summer 2016 deserves more than snap judgments and I think its safe to say this years wont go down as being one of the sunniest summers on record

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3 hours ago, Scorcher said:

Had a feeling you'd be on again this morning to congratulate yourself. A really gutting set of runs from the Euros for those wanting a change this morning.

Is there really any need for this kind of response?

Whilst the general downgrade is disappointing (to say the least!) as others have said not all the models have been onboard the onset of summer across the last 24-48hrs, so given the history when this is the case I'm not sure we should be entirely surprised at the recent turn of events. I can't help thinking having swung one way there will be some sort of movement/adjustment back towards drier, warmer conditions this weekend across the next day or two, especially for the south, but it has to be said that any signs of the pattern change needed to deliver some hot summer weather that most of us crave looks as far away as ever at this stage.

At the end of the day however what we are seeing is pretty much what summers deliver in the UK - just as winter cold is always a bonus, so is summer heat, expecting rather than hoping for either WILL more often than not result in significant disappointment imho.

Edited by coldcomfort

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17 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Knocker, once get a spare couple of hours (which may be in about 10 years time), I will collate my evidence from the model archives. To me, quoting the official NH statistics on model accuracy without applying them to our local situation and actual physical model output is doing exactly the same thing. 

A simple way for those learning about the models to get useful evidence  would be to go back through this thread and count the number of times people posted "The ECM has moved towards the GFS" or vice versa. This is called "observational evidence" and is acceptable in scientific research if done fairly.

The latest available stats (May) do show the ECM to have the edge on the others for European sector but I do agree with you as regards the recent situation - where there has been big disagreement at short range - the GFS has often been closer to what transpired.

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http://apps.ecmwf.int/wmolcdnv/scores/mean/500_z

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GFS 6z is for sure replicating the 0z run.

For some stupid reason i can only post ukmo/ecm charts but suffice to say, next weekend looks very wet as far as GFS is concerned with the never ending icelandic trough sweeping in...

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3 hours ago, Scorcher said:

Had a feeling you'd be on again this morning to congratulate yourself. A really gutting set of runs from the Euros for those wanting a change this morning.

So I'm not allowed to discuss model output in the model thread, is that what you're telling me? All is fine and dandy if I come on and proclaim there's a heatwave on the way eh. I was actually on early this morning because I have a week off work and so have more time to post/stay up etc etc but never let the facts spoil a good dig! :) 

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1 hour ago, coldcomfort said:

I I'm not sure we should be entirely surprised at the recent turn of events. I can't help thinking having swung one way there will be some sort of movement/adjustment back towards drier, warmer conditions this weekend across the next day or two, especially for the south, but it has to be said that any signs of the pattern change needed to deliver some hot summer weather that most of us crave looks as far away as ever at this stage..

Very sensible bolded words there IMO. Nothing is certain yet even as early as for the coming weekend. There surely remain possibilities of more changes in coming runs/days, and not necessarily towards even stronger trough domination. I made the point earlier today that the contrast between previous and more recent ECM runs looked quite an extreme downgrade. Surely caution should also apply in analysing such big  changes/switches -- just as we should apply caution towards more positive model run upturns?

Edited by William of Walworth

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Most of the Gfs 6z is vile, the weekend now looks cool, breezy and changeable / unsettled. There is some transient ridging on a few occasions in low res but overall it's more if the same substandard low pressure dominated cool, cloudy wet summer we are used to.

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Indeed, the 6z is just a continuation of the correction we've seen this morning - i.e. more of what we've had all summer thus far. At this rate there may be no warm up at all.

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1 hour ago, William of Walworth said:

Very sensible bolded words there IMO. Nothing is certain yet even as early as for the coming weekend. There surely remain possibilities of more changes in coming runs/days, and not necessarily towards even stronger trough domination. I made the point earlier today that the contrast between previous and more recent ECM runs looked quite an extreme downgrade. Surely caution should also apply in analysing such big  changes/switches -- just as we should apply caution towards more positive model run upturns?

There will undoubtedly be further changes, but taking into account that most of the models now agree that our weather next weekend is to be more influenced from stronger westerlies, I see it unlikely there will be any change back. Improvements? Certainly not out of the question.

The ECM 00z operational run may have initially looked like an extreme downgrade compared to the plumes of warmth it was showing yesterday, but really it has just shifted towards the consensus of a continuation of westerly dominated weather for the short/medium term. The Jet is still quite strong and with the axis on a NW to SE through the Atlantic, the UK is within the trough, for now. The Azores High, which often builds across into Europe in the Summer months has not been allowed to do this to benefit the UK for long, with ridges remaining quite transient in nature before the next Low pressure system tries to move in.

I feel it is important to note though that the lower res GFS precipitation charts can make it look a lot more wet than what it will be in reality on the surface. There would still be some sunshine/dry weather in-between any weather fronts and showers, with temps reaching high teens to low/mid twenties in any lengthier sunny spells. I do realise some have had to deal with persistent cloud and fresh winds more than we have down here in the W Country, so fingers crossed we start seeing a more settled pattern emerge soon...

 

 

Edited by Chris K

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7 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Indeed, the 6z is just a continuation of the correction we've seen this morning - i.e. more of what we've had all summer thus far. At this rate there may be no warm up at all.

There does appear to be a clear and present danger that we can't break this pattern fully across the remainder of July, which if correct will mean some parts of the UK will go into the last 3rd of meteorological summer still awaiting it's start. I know some will rush to say it's far to early to right off the rest of the month when only half way through week 2, but quite frankly I have seen that kind of thing suggested time and time again in here during both summer and winter, only for the prediction to turn out to be perfectly correct despite it's general unpopularity.

August will need to deliver and do so big time for this season not to be another one that patently flouts the Trade Descriptions Act, but I suspect we will again be left waiting for early Autumn to deliver something resembling summer....once again all too little, too late. 

 

 

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Short term pain could lead to long term gain according to the GEFS 6z mean as although next weekend the pattern looks flatter, further ahead there is support for the Azores high to ridge across the uk bringing a change to fine and warm weather, at least for the southern half of the uk

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Looking through the GEFS 6z perturbations, the future could be bright and warmer with much higher chances of anticyclonic influence in the mid to longer range..fingers crossed!

P20 please:D

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5 hours ago, coldcomfort said:

Is there really any need for this kind of response?

Whilst the general downgrade is disappointing (to say the least!) as others have said not all the models have been onboard the onset of summer across the last 24-48hrs, so given the history when this is the case I'm not sure we should be entirely surprised at the recent turn of events. I can't help thinking having swung one way there will be some sort of movement/adjustment back towards drier, warmer conditions this weekend across the next day or two, especially for the south, but it has to be said that any signs of the pattern change needed to deliver some hot summer weather that most of us crave looks as far away as ever at this stage.

At the end of the day however what we are seeing is pretty much what summers deliver in the UK - just as winter cold is always a bonus, so is summer heat, expecting rather than hoping for either WILL more often than not result in significant disappointment imho.

My response was triggered by the frustration I have with certain members who only seem to appear when the outlook is poor for fine summer weather. The poster I quoted is a prime example. I make no secret of the fact that I prefer mild weather in the winter, but I hardly ever post in the forum at all in the winter- last winter I could have had a field day saying 'I told you so' but I saw no need. There is no need for the self-congratulatory tone in certain posts.

Interesting to see the BBC are now showing increased cloud for Friday compared to this morning's forecast- but are still showing temperatures reaching the mid 20s in the South East at the moment for the weekend. It would certainly back up the changes in this morning's runs from the UKMO and ECM.

 

 

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22 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

My response was triggered by the frustration I have with certain members who only seem to appear when the outlook is poor for fine summer weather. The poster I quoted is a prime example. I make no secret of the fact that I prefer mild weather in the winter, but I hardly ever post in the forum at all in the winter- last winter I could have had a field day saying 'I told you so' but I saw no need. There is no need for the self-congratulatory tone in certain posts.

Interesting to see the BBC are now showing increased cloud for Friday compared to this morning's forecast- but are still showing temperatures reaching the mid 20s in the South East at the moment for the weekend. It would certainly back up the changes in this morning's runs from the UKMO and ECM.

I get that, but equally if everyone said something similar each time they found a post from any particular member frustrating, it would be chaos in here. Anyway, moving on. The 12 GFS has everything a little farther NW on Fri, so a slight improvement on the 00 and 06 runs at T+102hrs, lets hope it continues! 

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Friday still looks a decent day for most according to UKMO

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GFS and UKMO pretty close at t120

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Edited by Summer Sun

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A better run from GFS compare to the past few runs with the high closer by again

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12z^                                                                     06z^

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A better run from UKMO as well after this mornings disappointment

12z

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00z

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