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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

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Looking at the 6-10 anomalies this evening one can see why the difference between the GFS and ecm ops runs. The GEFS makes much more of the trough than the ecm and NOAA. Leaving aside the GEFs for the moment the  EPS mean and spot readings downplay the ops both with max temps and longevity.although still pleasantly warm over the weekend. By day ten we are back in the westerly upper flow with LP to the NW and HP to the SW.

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.png610day.03.gif

In the 10-15 period there is essentially little change to the overall upper pattern. Still in the westerly regime with perhaps still the suggestion of the Azores pushing north in mid Atlantic that could produce longer drier periods in the south with maybe temps a little above average. Certainly an improvement on what we have been receiving.

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_61.png814day.03.gif

 

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57 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Tamara said the other day that there has been 'some amplification of Tropical convection' and mentioned this weekend looking possibly better. This is certainly on cue. Let's hope this warmth can last with the start of July seeing a rise in Glamm. A cause for modest optimism alluded by the models:)

Good point Matthew, certainly optimism is justified judging by today's output, especially now that BBC weather is also dropping hints of something much warmer by next weekend..I'm hoping for upgrades now:D

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42 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I'm hoping for upgrades now:D

Or at least confirmation in further runs over coming days, and most importantly, no downgrades ...

Recent runs are leading me (as a summerlover) to be very cautiously optimistic about prospects for the end of the week and next weekend. Particularly in the South but maybe more widely.

 

Also, I think sometimes in the summer on here, natural caution and pessimism, often based on the failure of previously predicted HP-influenced spellls to materialise in the end,  can lead some people to underestimate the strength and longevity for HP incursions.

 

Sometimes!

Edited by William of Walworth

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No idea how accurate the ECM will ultimately prove to be....looks a little 'strange' to me with how it kicks that ridging up across the UK as an offshoot of the main HP core. GFS 18z was having none of it

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More runs needed on this one!

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Further to last post above, GFS 0z not interested in the slightest in a weekend warm up- if anything it's even more troughing dominated than the 18z with temperatures around 20C across the Midlands on Friday before the cold front pushes through during the early hours of Saturday

h500slp.png

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We then head in to a typically westerly dominated regime....driest weather in far SE and wettest further NW but temperatures no great shakes for anyone

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Jet stream fairly strong too

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GEM 0z goes flat westerly next week too

gem-0-192.png?00

 

Me thinks the Metoffice may have been a tad hasty here with regards to the end of week/weekend prospects....On to the ECM

 

Edited by CreweCold

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First today. Most of the rain will concentrated around N.Wales N.England but should clear during the day leaving a showery outlook.

The GFS this morning continues it's tale of gloom. Unsettled at the beginning of the week before a ridge moves in on Thursday. It is very short lived as the next Atlantic systems arrive Friday/Saturday bringing some wet and windy weather. The models are not handling this situation very well so there is still nothing set in stone about the evolution for the weekend so for the moment best put this run in the pending file. I've included the Friday fax which leaves it nicely up in the air.

ens_mean1hrprecip_43.pnggfs_6hr_precip_eur3_13.pnggfs_6hr_precip_eur3_23.png

PPVO89.gif

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As above, much less promising this morning, with the weekend looking like a non event! Staying unsettled perhaps.

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Is the ecm doing what it always does looks great for cold in winter before falling into line with gfs think it might be upto it's old tricks again. Gfs looks unsettled into next weekend. Guess we will see who is correct in the days ahead. 

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13 minutes ago, terrier said:

Is the ecm doing what it always does looks great for cold in winter before falling into line with gfs think it might be upto it's old tricks again. Gfs looks unsettled into next weekend. Guess we will see who is correct in the days ahead. 

Have you actually got any evidence for making that statement as the ecm is still consistently the better model since the upgrades?

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2 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Further to last post above, GFS 0z not interested in the slightest in a weekend warm up- if anything it's even more troughing dominated than the 18z with temperatures around 20C across the Midlands on Friday before the cold front pushes through during the early hours of Saturday

h500slp.png

h850t850eu.png

 

We then head in to a typically westerly dominated regime....driest weather in far SE and wettest further NW but temperatures no great shakes for anyone

h500slp.png

Jet stream fairly strong too

hgt300.png

GEM 0z goes flat westerly next week too

gem-0-192.png?00

 

Me thinks the Metoffice may have been a tad hasty here with regards to the end of week/weekend prospects....On to the ECM

 

Had a feeling you'd be on again this morning to congratulate yourself. A really gutting set of runs from the Euros for those wanting a change this morning.

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ECM completes the thoroughly miserable set and thus a full U-turn from yesterdays output showing a heatwave for next weekend. Now it's looking like Saturday might nick a 23/24x, before the Atlantic sweeps in again.
I'm fed up of this perpetual autumn in this country. Another day of wind and leaden skies here again, just get this wretched summer over with and let's start hoping for some cold again. :angry:

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15 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

A really gutting set of runs from the Euros for those wanting a change this morning.

Yes it's a shocker, I honestly thought we had a chance of breaking the shackles of this horrible summer but it's imploded again. The Ecm is a promise merchant of a model as we know from bitter winter disappointments...T+240 looks good though:whistling:

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It seems we have been led up the garden path again.. the models aren't to be trusted are they?? even netweather can't get it right.. "On plume watch for the weekend".. which weekend?? 2087  because  the model for  that year.. says heatwave for 8 months.. But remember the computer model is showing 5ft of snow for  the following winter of  2087/2088.

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1 hour ago, knocker said:

Have you actually got any evidence for making that statement as the ecm is still consistently the better model since the upgrades?

It does seem to the naked eye though, at least for the UK, that the GFS is getting most of the big decisions right. Which this morning means a total car crash for the ECM, which ditches its high pressure outlook for the weekend having been so consistent for days.

I still think we will see a little rebound back to a slightly better outlook, but I think the idea of yesterday's ECM has gone for good.

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11 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

 Careful please as this is a very fragile set up. Spanish plumes from my previous experience are not that common! Lots of factors have to come together  !!!! Just look at the ecm and gfs at T+96 hrs .!!!

 

 

 

 

Anyweather made a good point last night, it's  best to be a sceptic until it's in the bag.:D

WP_20160710_21_28_57_Pro.jpg.835ff3c2e3ed9aedae5c49e161e974c6.jpg

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Certainly plenty of scope for the weekend for further minor adjustments being 5 days away. With any 'real' warmth over the past few days 'always' model'd for the far South, And only lasting a few days at best, As i said yesterday it really is a fine line, So expect further changes/chops on in-trim runs for this macro detail... Beyond the weekend into next week the GFS continues to show a Westerly flow push back in off the Atlantic.

a.pngb.pngc.png

Edited by Polar Maritime

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The GEM model deserves some praise, it dropped the heat signal completely on yesterday's output and its the same this morning, unsettled, breezy, cool to average Atlantic driven.

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31 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

It does seem to the naked eye though, at least for the UK, that the GFS is getting most of the big decisions right. Which this morning means a total car crash for the ECM, which ditches its high pressure outlook for the weekend having been so consistent for days.

I still think we will see a little rebound back to a slightly better outlook, but I think the idea of yesterday's ECM has gone for good.

. Well at the moment nobody is right as it is still to be resolved. And I take issue with statements like this

Quote

Is the ecm doing what it always does looks great for cold in winter before falling into line with gfs think it might be upto it's old tricks again. Gfs looks unsettled into next weekend. Guess we will see who is correct in the days ahead. 

And your

Quote

t does seem to the naked eye though, at least for the UK, that the GFS is getting most of the big decisions right

because unless they are supported by evidence based reasoning they are meaningless waffle. And not only that for people who are on a learning curve they are completely misleading..There was enough of that yesterday with talk of Spanish Plumes.

Going back to yesterday's evening runs there was such a discrepancy between the GFS and ecm ops that warning signals should have been loud and clear, particularly as the EPS didn't support the ops. So when you get down to the nitty gritty one of the runs has to be wrong and possible both. The fact that people chose to jump on the ecm bandwagon because it was showing what they wanted to see was straight out of the cold mafia's handbook.

Yes the models are struggling at the moment, and yes the last two ecm runs look very dubious and almost certainly wrong, but I fail to see how misleading unsupported generalisations help the situation or anyone else.

Edited by knocker

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:wallbash:

Looks like GFS was correct for next weekend as it stands.

ECM shows what could have happened if the ridge made it far enough north at 96h.

But its a jim bowen moment i'm afraid, heres what you could of won.

*Looks outside to the pouring rain.

Lettucing gutted.

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11 hours ago, Greenland1080 said:

Looking at the GFS looks like a 3 day warm snap if it happens at all nothing more backed up by longer range models and Met office indications

And it look like it was being optimistic at 3 days!!!!

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12 hours ago, Scorcher said:

Now that is the type of run we've been waiting for for some time from the ECM...an excellent summer run from Friday onwards. It seems to bring the warm air in earlier than on previous runs as well, with quite a dramatic warm up possible for Friday and then a fantastic setup for most of the UK for the weekend.

The Atlantic is also kept well at bay right until the end of the run. Let's hope this is the turning point for this summer.

A bit like Toblerone...the GFS is out on its own tonight! 

The GFS was not out on its own - the ARPEGE was in full agreement but given that it only goes out to 5 days it was difficult to envisage where it went for the full weekend.

arpegeeur-0-114_dmn7.png

This is the second time, recently, where GFS/ARP have been at odds with ECM/UKMO and been proven right but it will be swings and roundabouts overall and the final weather may be something of a blend.

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Well I did say last night that I was becoming very cautiously optimistic for the coming weekend!

 

Am I alone though in wondering whether the switch between the previous and most recent ECM models is so extreme as to warrant a bit of suspicion? Is it possible perhaps that the downgrade may yet itself get downgraded in coming runs?

 

I appreciate I'm strawclutching (indeed speculating!) but I'd put a modest punt on the possibility that the trough domination shown right now might -- emphasise might-- be a little overdone, and that the eventual outcome might still end up featuring  a bit more of a N/S divide. Going no further.

Edited by William of Walworth

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16 minutes ago, Nouska said:

The GFS was not out on its own - the ARPEGE was in full agreement but given that it only goes out to 5 days it was difficult to envisage where it went for the full weekend.

 

 Is there really any need to analyse what I said last night now? It does look rather foolish now, but it's after the event so very easy to say. 

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40 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

:wallbash:

 

Lettucing gutted.

It's not over until....

The fat Lady Singing-8x6.jpg

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