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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

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gfs 12z loses all the heat but temps are pleasant enough for t-shirts and ice cream for most of England for next weekend and into the following week...why do I foresee next weeks plume quickly eroding away? just a matter of time before that gfs and ecm 'horror show'   

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ECm trumps the GFS with a much warmer run in the reliable- the Atlantic STILL looks very strong so it may well be its a pretty shortlived pressure rise- at 144 the NW Britain looks to be under the influence of the Atlantic ..

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.html

Should be settled sunny and warm for the bulk of the country with perhaps more in the way of cloud the further NW one goes..

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It really could be a very warm / hot and increasingly humid end to the week ahead and into week 2 according to some of the GEFS 12z perturbations as we import continental heat northwards into the UK, there are several stunning charts here with +15 T850s or higher which would mean max temps into the high 80's to low 90's F or higher as we saw from the last spanish plume just over a year ago...so this is no exaggeration, we could be in for a scorcher, at least for England and Wales.:)

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11 minutes ago, 40*C said:

gfs 12z loses all the heat but temps are pleasant enough for t-shirts and ice cream for most of England for next weekend and into the following week...why do I foresee next weeks plume quickly eroding away? just a matter of time before that gfs and ecm 'horror show'   

This really is a bit ridiculous. It was never a plume any way and in this very mobile set up making snap judgements on every det. run on an evolution that is still a week away, sometimes before they are even off the press, really is futile. How about waiting to see how the upper air is doing or at least some agreement between the models.

Edited by knocker

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ECM turns on the hairdryer as the high pushes the trough north- the 168 chart is surely loaded with warm air as the high to our east drags up some lovely spanish air!!

I can sense the red crayon is imminent - :D

 

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The ecm max temps for Sat 1800z 24C around E, Anglia and NE Scotland!! Sunday 1800z 27C around Norfolk and Lincolnshire Monday 27C Midlands. Of course all change by this time tomorrow.

Edited by knocker

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3 minutes ago, knocker said:

The ecm max temps for Sat 1800z 24C around E, Anglia and NE Scotland!! Sunday 1800z 27C around Norfolk and Lincolnshire. Of course all change by this time tomorrow.

NE Scotland? thats a bit of a suprise, anyway, its not quite hot in my estimation but its approaching it, i will say after viewing the ukmo/gfs/ecm at 144 ecm is by far the best for heat lovers so obviously that run maywell be at the very top of its suite, but after the summer so far i reserve the right to ramp that one right up :)

And itss still HP in charge out to day 10 - really nice run that.

Edited by northwestsnow

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Now that is the type of run we've been waiting for for some time from the ECM...an excellent summer run from Friday onwards. It seems to bring the warm air in earlier than on previous runs as well, with quite a dramatic warm up possible for Friday and then a fantastic setup for most of the UK for the weekend.

The Atlantic is also kept well at bay right until the end of the run. Let's hope this is the turning point for this summer.

A bit like Toblerone...the GFS is out on its own tonight! 

Edited by Scorcher

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Cracker from ECM nice to see high pressure and warmth

Recm1202.gifRecm1682.gifRecm2162.gifRecm2402.gif

Ah summer how we've missed you maybe we're gonna make up for lost time?

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There is no question this turns into a fantastic run for long suffering summer fans with increasing warmth and sunshine, by the end of the run its still going strong with plenty to add beyond T+240 hours.. tonight's Ecm 12z shows a marked pattern change, this is better than the 00z because it would last much longer.:)

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At last, an op run following the potential for a pattern change with the Azores High taking advantage of a lull in the Atlantica and bringing in full on summer. Well, now we just have to wait a few runs to see where the future sits between this run and the GFS (General clue ... the answer is usually somewhere between the two!)

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3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

At last, an op run following the potential for a pattern change with the Azores High taking advantage of a lull in the Atlantica and bringing in full on summer. Well, now we just have to wait a few runs to see where the future sits between this run and the GFS (General clue ... the answer is usually somewhere between the two!)

The other good news is there are some fantastic Gefs 12z perturbations which agree with the ecm and some epic plumes too which are only about 1 week away.. amazing really we could be flipping a switch from the cool cloudy dross so far to full on summer heat and glorious sunshine..for all!:)

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45 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

NE Scotland? thats a bit of a suprise, anyway, its not quite hot in my estimation but its approaching it, i will say after viewing the ukmo/gfs/ecm at 144 ecm is by far the best for heat lovers so obviously that run maywell be at the very top of its suite, but after the summer so far i reserve the right to ramp that one right up :)

And itss still HP in charge out to day 10 - really nice run that.

Whoo Whoo Whoo!  Careful please as this is a very fragile set up. Spanish plumes from my previous experience are not that common! Lots of factors have to come togeather  !!!! Just look at the ecm and gfs at T+96 hrs .!!!

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Edited by ANYWEATHER

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3 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Whoo Whoo Whoo!  Careful please as this is a very fragile set up. Spanish plumes from my previous experience are not that common! Lots of factors have to come togeather  !!!! Just look at the ecm and gfs at T+96 hrs .!!!

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Indeed, I remember last year during the build up to the early July spanish plume you kept saying it would never happen but it did and Heathrow touched 100F!

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7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Indeed, I remember last year during the build up to the early July spanish plume you kept saying it would never happen but it did and Heathrow touched 100F!

Indeed ! That temperature was over the top! Wrong place to discuss here !!!!

 

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Looking at the ecm surface analysis for the weekend the term 'Spanish Plume' is being misused.

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8 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Indeed ! That temperature was over the top! Wrong place to discuss here !!!!

 

Yes it only got to 37c 99f..my bad 

The point is there are some cracking charts from the ecm and gefs today / tonight supporting a very warm or hot spell which could last several days.

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Tamara said the other day that there has been 'some amplification of Tropical convection' and mentioned this weekend looking possibly better. This is certainly on cue. Let's hope this warmth can last with the start of July seeing a rise in Glamm. A cause for modest optimism alluded by the models:)

Edited by Matthew Wilson

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Just now, Greenland1080 said:

Looking at the GFS looks like a 3 day warm snap if it happens at all nothing more backed up by longer range models and Met office indications

What about ECM? that shows the warmth lasting much longer

To avoid confusion for some this warming up shown by the models IS supported by the beeb they won't commit to temps yet but Tom said 'high 20's'

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yes Gavin, the end of the week has got me very interested too:D

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B-E-A utiful charts! :D

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The Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows a much warmer end to the week with mid 20s celsius across England and wales, this doesn't mean we can't achieve something remarkable at the end of the week into week 2, at the very least the south should be warmer than average by next weekend and I wouldn't rule out a plume or a major incursion of the Azores high as the ecm 12z op shows.

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