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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

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The ECM op runs have been very consistent in showing a very warm spell for most of the UK next weekend. So far, the meto updates are having none of it though.

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2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

So far, the meto updates are having none of it though.

That's par for the course this summer, I would just like a spell of high pressure and warmth seeing as its supposed to be July.:closedeyes:

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38 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

And yet the latest eps renew a more troughy look days 9-15 .............  Not the trend anyone seeking an escape from this 'summer' is looking for. 

the fi gefs weren't too encouraging either so it could be another false dawn. 

I think the ecm0z mean looks reasonable at day 10 Blue, certainly the trough looks to have lifted north, granted it looks fairly slack but nothing like the utter grotfest witnessed so far-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.html

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3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

That's par for the course this summer, I would just like a spell of high pressure and warmth seeing as its supposed to be July.:closedeyes:

Absolutely, it would be nice to be able to sit out in the garden this summer - something I haven't been able to do thus far.

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6z is an improvement on 0z with the HP more in control and the trough lifting north.Probably extending the warm feel into next week.

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Forecasting max temps for next weekend remains a lottery at this range as it rather depends on the configuration and movement of the ridge/HP east and how much it facilitates some brief WAA from Europe at the moment the ecm is the best bet with surface max of around 27C in central England on Sunday.

Edited by knocker

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Amazing isn't it, the Gfs 6z shows summer arriving in the south by the end of the week but for scotland it's like October, 10-14c, what a joke!

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ukmaxtemp (1).png

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Yes Frosty/Knock, There will certainly be some big temperature differences N/S come the end of the week as the heat nudges North over the South of the UK. Will be interesting how the models handle this 'fine line' over the coming few days.

Edited by Polar Maritime

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2 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Yes Frosty, There will certainly be some big temperature differences N/S come the end of the week as the heat nudges North over the South of the UK. Will be interesting how the models handle this 'fine line' over the coming few days.

Yes Rob, I don't think I have known a summer as cloudy and cool as this one, and not forgetting the rain...and another typically cruel north / south divide coming up by the looks of it unless by some miracle the ecm is right for once!

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11 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Yes Rob, I don't think I have known a summer as cloudy and cool as this one, and not forgetting the rain...and another typically cruel north / south divide coming up by the looks of it unless by some miracle the ecm is right for once!

Probably few of us have (with regard to June) - assuming things have been as bad there as in N.France.

Table of new record sunshine deficits June '16 as per MF.

7a3cc1f6c27a7aa6598ffc1f23fd78a9.png

http://www.meteofrance.fr/actualites/38011833-climat-bilan-de-juin-2016

 

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1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Amazing isn't it, the Gfs 6z shows summer arriving in the south by the end of the week but for scotland it's like October, 10-14c, what a joke!

ukmaxtemp.png

ukmaxtemp (1).png

moral of the story there is don't live in Scotland unless you like midges in the summer (highlands) - mediocre summers generally except for the odd day - flipping cold and snowy winters (although some of us in here LOVE the snow) (or very wet as we are having now) - MOVE TO TENERIFE! lol

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9 minutes ago, andymusic said:

MOVE TO TENERIFE! lol

Good idea, and look at this, mount teide even gets snow which is more than we get on low ground in southern britain during our winters.:shok: and of course, they have great summer's.

th.jpg

spiaggia-teresitas-tenerife-7.jpg

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Please try and remember there is a Summer thread open for general chat, Back to discussing the Models now, Thanks.

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52 minutes ago, andymusic said:

MOVE TO TENERIFE! lol

Good idea, and look at this, mount teide even gets snow which is more than we get on low ground in southern britain during our winters.:shok: and of course, they have great summer's.

 

Apologies Rob, I shouldn't have gone off topic..like I am now too:oops:

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For those of us who find the humidity too much but still like sunshine there's good news Wednesday and Thursday with a Fresher WNw airmass. I personally am a fan of the PM in winter.

image.png

image.png

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Afternoon all :)

To use an extremely unscientific analogy, the GFS 06Z OP is a run of three halves. An initial three or four days of unsettled conditions followed from Thursday by a significant rise in pressure as part of the Azores HP displaces NE across southern Britain. 

gfs-0-144.png?6

A very settled and warm weekend especially for the south though I don't see a classic Plume scenario I have to say.

Unfortunately, two things fail to happen for heat fans - a) pressure rise to the east and b) pressure fall to the south. Since nature abhors a vacuum, the Atlantic moves back in:

gfs-0-216.png?6

Low-res is uninspiring to be honest with little in the way of prolonged settled weather and the Atlantic calling the shots. Signs also of heights building back in the north and with the Azores HP displaced well away, the jet comes back south and none of that augurs well for the end of the month and the start of August. 

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I hope I won't be spending the rest of this summer searching for warm anticyclonic weather on perturbation such and such at T+288 hours range..lol but anyways, I am today and I'm looking for signs of sustainable high pressure and I will of course keep looking because I'm desperate now for this cool cloudy summer to get its act together, here are some pleasant Gefs 6z perturbations in Fi.:)

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tomaz shafenakker just aid hints of something much warmer as hit the end of the coming week into the weekend,yaaaaaaaaaay :D

Ties in nicely with the ECM0z so fingers crossed the trend continues and the red crayon will come out ..;)

 

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GFs is an absolute joke of a model, chops and changes every 6 hours, 12z has cranked up the atlantic about 10 notches inside 96hrs!!!

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9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFs is an absolute joke of a model, chops and changes every 6 hours, 12z has cranked up the atlantic about 10 notches inside 96hrs!!!

Its much better to follow only 1 same run every day, With the 6z being the worst of the suite in anycase but never to be discounted.

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Well we await UKMO/ECM, if they look anything like that abomination then its looking iffy to say the least..

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Does anyone remember how good the Gem was yesterday? 

Well, this is how the 12z looks this evening, nothing like as warm or settled, just for those who say I only post anticyclonic charts...I don't, however, at least the run ends with high pressure ridging in from the atlantic / Azores.

My opinion is this won't be the outlook, the met office update sounds a lot warmer for the end of the week, at least across the southern half of the uk and early into week 2 with high pressure for a time later this coming week gradually giving way to very warm and humid unstable conditions with a risk of thundery downpours with the northwest of the UK in a cooler Atlantic regime.:)

Rgem1441.gif

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Rgem2401.gif

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Much better GEFS 12z mean in the mid range with increasing Azores high influence across the uk with a spell of warm and fine weather spreading to many areas, better than earlier today. :- )

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Edited by Frosty.

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Early days but ecm looks slightly better than GFS at 96 with the ridge slightly further north - hopefully a good run to come and the red crayon will be out shortly..

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