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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

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Yes lets move on from this ongoing roundabout now, As long as charts are shown to back posts up there is no problem whatsoever.

Please continue.

Edited by Polar Maritime

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Just now, Woollymummy said:

And wet, still.

image.jpg

Just move on one extra day and we see high pressure good agreement among the models so it will be drying up for the weekend :)

Recm1441.gifRgem1441.gifRtavn1441.gifRukm1441.gif

GFS ens

Rz500m6.gif

 

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1 minute ago, Greenland1080 said:

But you keep showing fantasy island plumes that aren't happening in week 2....if I did that in Winter I'd be cut down.....Anyway moving on.....

Sorry but that's not true, i show charts in hi res and low res but I make no apology for looking for warm anticyclonic weather since we haven't seen any yet this summer.

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1 minute ago, Greenland1080 said:

Frosty I love your posts keep going mate I'm not knocking you just challenging the charts to give this great thread some stimulation in Summer:D

Cheers Greenland..now moving on:D

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Persistent wet followed by sudden and strong rise in temperature sounds like a recipe for blight on my allotment :-(

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Tonight's NOAA shows the transient ridge very well before normal service is resumed. Ties in very well with the METO.

610day.03.gif814day.03.gif

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16 minutes ago, knocker said:

Tonight's NOAA shows the transient ridge very well before normal service is resumed. Ties in very well with the METO.

610day.03.gif814day.03.gif

I think it is a case of "We will take it", especially as the ridge seems to be affecting us over the weekend, some sunshine and warmth for most of the UK would be very welcome by most I would think.

GEFs

gens-21-1-168.png   gens-21-1-192.png

Looks pretty good to be honest, well a lot better than recently. As you and others have said a probably return to westerlies shortly after but nothing overly drastic, before then it does look like turning rather cool during the middle of the coming week with 20C looking to be the absolute maximum.

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It does look promising for next weekend-now the ECM mean chart day 6 on board with the Azores ridging too

EDM1-144.gif

which ties in nicely with a similar looking GFS mean.The next Atlantic trough approaching mid-week just digs a little further south to our west and pumps up that ridging ahead just at the right time for hopefully some weekend barby weather for many-fingers crossed!:)

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It's nice to see Knockers red crayon in action next weekend. Hopefully sunshine also and could make a great weekend next week:)

image.png

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Oh I agree anything is better than the beginning of next week and even though it probably will be short lived the ext EPS looks more promising this evening with the anomalous trough becoming very weak and  although westerly upper flow still applies there is a suggestion that the Azores HP may be a little more influential and affect more of the UK

ecm_eps_t850a_eur_8.png

Edited by knocker

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NAEFS mode fcst consistent with other models showing brief warm spell, before the pattern flattens out

naefs1.pngjetna1.png

naefs2.pngjetna2.png

naefs3.pngjetna3.png

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1 hour ago, Woollymummy said:

Persistent wet followed by sudden and strong rise in temperature sounds like a recipe for blight on my allotment :-(

If you take the 12Z OP run at face value, there's actually nothing out of the ordinary in terms of rainfall totals, the Southern half of England looks quite dry.

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The Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows a marked change next week from a cool showery trough dominated first half to a gradually warmer and drier second half as high pressure builds in across the south of the UK with probably a good deal of sunshine for a few days at least later next week into the weekend and turning rather warm / very warm and more humid by the end of next week and probable heavy thundery showers but still with sunny spells.

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Reem1441.gif

Reem1681.gif

Reem1682.gif

Reem1921.gif

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This morning's GFS epitomises what one would expect with the current upper air set up. The whole run is a succession of interplays between the cooler LP air and the warmer air from the HP to the SW as the systems move from west to east. Ergo a very changeable 14 days with a N/S split very much in play. Absolutely no point in looking too far ahead so sticking to this week and even this is not set in stone at the end.

So the UK under the influence of the low until Weds as it moves east giving some rather cool days. Then the ridge moves in but is flattened by systems moving NE so remains mainly influential over England with Scotland getting the wind and rain. And then the next phase interplay. Out of this a warm weekend for England (warmer as you move SE) with max temps around 24C but much cooler north of the border.

gfs_t2maf_slp_eur3_15.pnggfs_6hr_precip_eur3_27.pnggfs_6hr_precip_eur3_40.png

Edited by knocker

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ECM looks hot hot hot as we hit next weekend with some very warm uppers (15 line across much of the UK) 

Here it is in beautiful techincolour :D

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.html (the very warm uppers )

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.html

It may well be a brief plume but its very very welcome and im sure the deckchairs will be out for much of the country :)

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Yes a great Spanish plume Towards the latter 2 days!:D:hi:

image.png

image.png

image.png

image.png

Edited by Matthew Wilson

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Nice to see something which actually resembles summer still showing

Recm1442.gifRecm1682.gifRecm1922.gif

UKMO

Rukm961.gifRukm1201.gifRukm1441.gif

hmb.only_fools_horses_del_boy_lovely_jub

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ECM ooz op looks pretty well spot on wrt the ens mean from yesterday's 12z run.  GEM op picked up the greater amplification driving the Scandinavia ridge with subsequent cut off low into Europe to our se first but with ECM and GEM running together on a more amplified solution against gfs has me a tad thoughtful.  The spreads on ECM are encouraging re the general overall westerly changeable pattern edging a little further north post next weekend so maybe the flattening out that follows the ridge may not come with the associated notable  troughing that has been typical thus far. 

 

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4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

ECM ooz op looks pretty well spot on wrt the ens mean from yesterday's 12z run.  GEM op picked up the greater amplification driving the Scandinavia ridge with subsequent cut off low into Europe to our se first but with ECM and GEM running together on a more amplified solution against gfs has me a tad thoughtful.  The spreads on ECM are encouraging re the general overall westerly changeable pattern edging a little further north post next weekend so maybe the flattening out that follows the ridge may not come with the associated notable  troughing that has been typical thus far. 

 

I was thinking the same thing blue, the gfs0z op looks to be one of the cooler runs into FI too, i really hope momentum can build towards that awful jet profile we have seen for an age to lift north - watching meto updates like a hawk to see what they think..

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The Ecm 00z would bring the best (hottest) summer weather since July 1st 2015:shok::D

Now...

main-pray.jpg

144_mslp850.png

144_mslp850uk.png

168_mslp850.png

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192_mslp850.png

192_mslp850uk.png

216_mslp850.png

216_mslp850uk.png

144_thick.png

168_thick.png

192_thick.png

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6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Ecm 00z would bring the best (hottest) summer weather since July 1st 2015:shok::D

Now...

main-pray.jpg

144_mslp850.png

144_mslp850uk.png

168_mslp850.png

168_mslp850uk.png

192_mslp850.png

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216_mslp850.png

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144_thick.png

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Thankfully unlikely to come off(admit it very selfish statement) though a general warming is on the cards,time will tell. May have to dig myself a deeper cave to hide in if it did come off! Those pesky spanish plumes should stay well and truly in spain!

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1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

ECM ooz op looks pretty well spot on wrt the ens mean from yesterday's 12z run.  GEM op picked up the greater amplification driving the Scandinavia ridge with subsequent cut off low into Europe to our se first but with ECM and GEM running together on a more amplified solution against gfs has me a tad thoughtful.  The spreads on ECM are encouraging re the general overall westerly changeable pattern edging a little further north post next weekend so maybe the flattening out that follows the ridge may not come with the associated notable  troughing that has been typical thus far. 

 

And yet the latest eps renew a more troughy look days 9-15 .............  Not the trend anyone seeking an escape from this 'summer' is looking for. 

the fi gefs weren't too encouraging either so it could be another false dawn. 

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18 minutes ago, markyo said:

Thankfully unlikely to come off(admit it very selfish statement) though a general warming is on the cards,time will tell. May have to dig myself a deeper cave to hide in if it did come off! Those pesky spanish plumes should stay well and truly in spain!

I don't care whether it happens or not, I'm just reporting what the Ecm shows :- )

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10 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I don't care whether it happens or not, I'm just reporting what the Ecm shows :- )

I know! Jolly good reporting as well! This site would be so worse off with out it! I always look to yours and a couple of other guy's for the proper evaluation especially the 5 plus day range,you seem to pickup on a general change long before main stream media reports it.

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2 minutes ago, markyo said:

I know! Jolly good reporting as well! This site would be so worse off with out it! I always look to yours and a couple of other guy's for the proper evaluation especially the 5 plus day range,you seem to pickup on a general change long before main stream media reports it.

Thanks, I get a lot of critcism so a bit of praise is welcomed:)

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