Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[knocker]

1 hour ago, phil nw. said:

Indeed Frosty and look at Arctic Siberia's expected afternoon temperatures over the next few days as per the GFS.

 

hard to take when they are so much further north!

See the cool plunge of air modeled over our side of the Atlantic via that upper trough.

 

Now we know where our Summer heat has gone.

 

 

But it is being spread about

Edited July 8, 2016 by knocker

[Polar Maritime]

1 hour ago, phil nw. said:

Now we know where our Summer heat has gone.

Yes Phil absolutely, The GFS has been stubborn for weeks with High Pressure shown over the Poles aiding Lows to sink further South over Europe driven on a strong Atlantic Jet. A rutt we seem to have been stuck in for some time now, With no let up as far as the Models can see.

[Frosty.]

30 minutes ago, knocker said:

But it is being spread about

Will you lay off with those blue crayons! They are for winter

[Matthew.]

4 hours ago, Tamara said:

 

Were this rise in GLAMM to be sustained, it would indicate that summer hopes might finally take a turn for the better here in the UK as well.   This latest sequence of current weather is a reflection of the GWO ( chart above) pushing into the Phase 4 part of the depicted orbit ( a Nino pre-cursor phase).

However, with the atmosphere now starting to add net easterlies back into the circulation, propagating from the tropics, atmospheric angular momentum is set to slide once more.

There is always the chance that any warmer advection sequence whenever the Azores ridge tries to head north-eastwards might provide some humid conditions. But overall there is no real sign at the moment of anything properly and sustainably above average 

Is it still possible other 'weather players' could override this Low GLAMM state? For example the Azores high ridging in next weekend as the Models predict and to our surprise brings a settled 2 week period or would this be considered impossible? Thank you for putting time in for such a great post.

Edited July 8, 2016 by Matthew Wilson

[Frosty.]

The good news for those of us who know about the current eastern US heatwave and are green with envy is that a cold front sweeps south from chicago and it turns cooler and fresher for the weekend...The bad news is they are expecting the heat to build north again next week with temps into the 90's even across New Hampshire. The good news for us is there could be a spell of fine and warmer weather developing from later next week, at least for England and Wales as the Azores high ridges NE across the south but I would love some of that north American heat before this summer is done! 

[Matthew.]

Yes Frosty a lot of red over there!

Edited July 8, 2016 by Matthew Wilson

[Frosty.]

24 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Yes Frosty a lot of red over there!

Yes Matthew I'm red with envy, nah I mean green

[Summer Sun]

Quite a change from UKMO from this mornings run with high pressure moving in by Thursday

00z

12z

[northwestsnow]

Less said about GFS the better

UKMO is better but we badly need to lose all the high latitude blocking because any ridge will be very brief ..

 

[Frosty.]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Less said about GFS the better

 

 

I don't agree,  although the Gfs 12z op run becomes unsettled and cooler, even across the southeast by the start of next week until midweek, it then shows an increasingly settled and warmer spell later next week across most of England and Wales which lasts into the weekend as high pressure builds in close to the south..as for Fi, that flip flops from run to run, on this run it shows a changeable broadly westerly pattern with occasional ridging across the south.

[knocker]

Crikey I had to get a white crayon special delivery from Amazon.

The GEFS Anomalies indicate little change with the overall pattern.

 

[Frosty.]

10 minutes ago, knocker said:

Crikey I had to get a white crayon special delivery from Amazon.

The GEFS Anomalies indicate little change with the overall pattern.

 

Knocker I'm praying for the day you ever show an anticyclonic chart, even if it's in low res it will be worth celebrating

Edited July 8, 2016 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

Looking at ECM the south has a chance of seeing some drier weather as we move through next week the warmest conditions could be in the SW where your more sheltered for the NW'ly flow

[knocker]

39 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Knocker I'm praying for the day you ever show an anticyclonic chart, even if it's in low res it will be worth celebrating

I would happily do so but the weather pattern we are in isn't conducive to an anticyclonic scenario and as you know I like to remain unbiased and not cherry pick. Still you never know so keep the beads busy

Edited July 8, 2016 by knocker

[Frosty.]

Well this looks good, the GEFS 12z mean shows a fine and warm spell across at least the southern half of the UK from later next week..so, after a cool start to next week with sunny spells and heavy showers with thunder, a ridge of high pressure gradually builds in from the southwest across the south and although the Azores High does wane for a time, it builds in again soon after...encouraging signs that the Azores high will become more influential in the weeks ahead.

[Captain Shortwave]

There is some hope of something better developing for a time late next week,

GFS/UKMO/ECM

      

An attempt to build a stronger transient ridge through the UK, this could coincide with next weekend so the chance of something very warm or potentially hot developing before cooler Atlantic air likely breaks through.

ECM looks reasonable enough

   

Winds veering southerly on Saturday with the 16C isotherm arriving in the south of the UK so temperatures would possibly approach 30C next weekend if the ECM is in the right ballpark. The GFS is slower to develop the ridge and then breaks the set up down quicker too.

It looks like a case of eeking out what we can from a pretty average westerly pattern.

Edited July 8, 2016 by Captain Shortwave

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, knocker said:

I would happily do so but the weather pattern we are in isn't conducive to an anticyclonic scenario and as you know I like to remain unbiased and not cherry pick. Still you never know so keep the beads busy

It's not cherry picking if the charts show high pressure later next week, which they do..check out the GEFS 12z mean charts I have just posted, they are encouraging!

[Frosty.]

11 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Looking at ECM next week the warmest conditions could be in the SW where your more sheltered for the NW'ly flow

 

 

So it could be warmest over knockers woodshed! that's typical innit

[knocker]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

So it could be warmest over knockers woodshed! that's typical innit

God smiles on the righteous and Sidney.

[Cloud 10]

Tis the season for picking cherries about now,and ensemble 5 gets the +20c isotherm across much of Southern England.

 

[northwestsnow]

I would take this evenings ECM with open arms, its increasingly warmer as head through next week and in the main its very positive for warm weather fans, esp the further south you go..

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.html

would be very warm/hot in the SE

[Matthew.]

Only the bravest will venture out tomorrow morning.

[A.J]

some off topic chat....please,, please, please , please (etc etc etc) model output discussion only in this thread....plenty of other threads for relevant weather chatter.....thank you

[knocker]

Well setting aside the fruit basket for a moment what does the ecm really say.for next week.

From tomorrow until early Weds we are under the influence of the low pressure to the north that slowly moves east. Temps around average but quite chilly midweek. From 0600z Weds to Thurs. 12z brief ridging which is flattened as low passes to the north but springs up again briefly before the next depression at the weekend.

Highest temps on Saturday if verified of course.

All of which is par for the course with this upper air pattern

 

[Frosty.]

The  Ecm 12z shows a chance of 30-31 c 87f in the south and east at the end of next week

Bring on the plume..well I would settle for warm and anticyclonic!

Now let us pray