Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[stodge]

To be honest, you can look through the low-res perturbations in winter and see the next cold spell but it never arrives

This will please Frosty

GEM not as enthusiastic about building pressure backing in after what looks a disappointing mid month weekend at this time. I don't get the optimism for Wimbledon finals - the men won't need to worry about the heat:

 

We might squeeze a half-decent day out of Saturday but after that there's 3-4 days of fairly mediocre weather and ECM is te first model to displace the Azores HP as a small LP develops in the Atlantic.  GEM models that feature very differently but it's very early days...

[Frosty.]

The Euro 12z models don't even agree about sunday, the ukmo 12z is the pick at T+120, the ecm much more progressive. Hope Wimbledon does have a very warm and largely settled final weekend.

[ANYWEATHER]

Hello Folks ! I and my Lady were going Camping to Beautiful Mid Wales by the River Wye for a eight day period next week ...I I Cancelled !!!  Wonder why???!!!!

[Frosty.]

Wow anyweather you look a lot like prince charles, striking resemblance!

Yes the models look very unsettled next week but I'm hopeful things will improve after that.

[Matthew.]

Tomorrow's chart A lovely reminder of what Summer is all about. Sunshine and a light breeze. P.s thank you once again Frosty

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Tomorrow's chart A lovely reminder of what Summer is all about. Sunshine and a light breeze. P.s thank you once again Frosty

Glad I could help :- )

Edited July 5, 2016 by Frosty.

[knocker]

In the medium term tonight's anomalies are showing no significant improvement from a continuation of unsettled weather with with temps around average or a little below.

The 6-10s are in pretty good agreement with low pressure over the Pole, ridging N. Canada and Russia and generally low pressure over the Atlantic. Ergo a continuation of the upper flow from the westerly quadrant bringing periods of rain, interspersed with drier periods obviously and with temps below average.

In the 10-14 period the ridging not so pronounced and a weakening trough to the north west but the westerly flow is still maintained. One proviso is that right at the end of the EPS run the trough is much weaker and although the westerly flow is still in place and the HP is still to the south west perhaps some movement from the latter may be immanent. Temps still average or a little below. The EC32 does run along these lines around that date but does end up with N/S split.

 

 

Edited July 5, 2016 by knocker

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z ensemble mean tonight shows a trough swinging down into the north of the UK next week which would mean sunshine and heavy showers with a risk of thunder and temps close to average but from later next week the Azores high extends a ridge across southern areas with the weather becoming warmer and more settled but remaining changeable across northern UK.Hopefully the Azores high is going to feature more and more through the second half of the summer.

[summer blizzard]

All models tonight vary between average and poor in days 5-15 for me, certainly not a stunning set of runs for July..

[knocker]

A fine day for most but rain spreading east will affect N. Ireland and north west Scotland. The weekend remains problematic.

[mb018538]

Matt Taylor last night was showing a map of the USA, stating that the recent bad weather was mainly due to a strong ridge in the pacific/W coast of the USA. Erm....this ridge is there every summer?? Which is why it never rains in the west through the summer months...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Pacific_High
 

Sunday looking pretty wet and windy, with early next week looking cool and showery too. Just what we should be getting for the middle of July in high summer.
 

[knocker]

The ecm this morning remains unsettled for the ten days Periods of rain with some drier and brighter interludes with the usual tendency for a N/S split. Temps around average but perhaps a tad warmer for the first half and below for the second.

Edited July 6, 2016 by knocker

[Summer Sun]

The unseasonably deep low at the weekend looks likely to bring some very warm and humid air for the east and south east with temps possibly topping 27c in the SE

It should be dry to later in the day for the east so good news for the ladies final at Wimbo

As for Sunday temps drop down to the high teens for most with the last of the low to mid 20's in the S & SE - a short trip on the euro tunnel and you'll be seeing temps close to 30c...

Not a great deal of rain around on Sunday away from Scotland and Ireland but maybe some light showers developing which could disrupt the men's final at Wimbo

 

Edited July 6, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

The ukmo 00z doesn't look as good for sunday as it did at 12z last evening, more in line with ecm / gfs / gem this morning..i.e. turning more unsettled during sunday

[Polar Maritime]

The Net/W-MR Model shows Saturday the warmest day of the weekend, With temps possibly touching 24/25c for parts of the Midlands and the S/E while cooler further North. Rain is shown to move in Saturday evening from the S/E into Sunday morning leaving a dry but cooler day with showers pushing South into Monday. 

Edited July 6, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

Also just to add.. Plenty of scope for convection/storms Saturday evening as the front pushes East.

Edited July 6, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z shows a scorcher for France this weekend and even southern / southeast England looks very warm and humid with temps reaching the low 80's F with a brief incursion of 564 dam thicknesses and with +15 T850s just the other side of the English channel. Please for gawd sake let us have some heat this summer already..

[summer blizzard]

Another set of runs giving no inspiration. Looks likely to me that we'll get to July 20th without another proper heatwave.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

i think this summer will record its lowest max since 1920 the way things are going.

[knocker]

A quick look at the ext EPS this morning has the anomalous trough dissipating by the end and although the Azores HP is still to the south west it is more influential. Clutching at straws here.

Edited July 6, 2016 by knocker

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z op run is showing a warm day on saturday with mid 20s c in favoured spots of the s / e where it looks dry with sunny spells but thundery rain across central areas, by sunday it turns cooler and fresher, breezy from the west but also bright with sunny periods with just a few showers in the south, more showery and cooler further northwest. Next week looks cool and unsettled as a trough dominates the UK with a NWly airflow bringing plenty of heavy and thundery showers but with sunshine in between, chilly nights in places too with mid to high single digits c minima possibe. Towards the end of next week an area of high pressure pushes in from the west and transfers to the east displacing the remnants of the showery trough and low res in general looks better with at least some warm anticyclonic conditions between shallow showery troughs, the run ends with high pressure starting to build in again.

Edited July 6, 2016 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 6z mean shows a cool unsettled spell next week but looking further ahead, the trough responsible fills and drifts away NE as high pressure builds in from the southwest with the south of the uk in particular becoming warmer and generally more settled, it looks as though the Azores high could start to influence our weather more and more through the second half of July and hopefully through into August too!

[johnholmes]

Good to see the optimism on the various models outputs. However in the 6-14 day time scale there is no signal yet of any prolonged weather with heat and sunshine as the two main themes. That is using the 3 anomaly charts shown below.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

[Matthew.]

Saturday we draw in a long stretch from the Sw. Reminds me of Dec 15 which had this meandering Jet through the month.

[Frosty.]

I'm sure there are many of us asking where our summer is hiding and I found it on the GEFS 6z perturbations which show quite a few warm and anticyclonic scenarios, even a plume or two...I really hope we will see a marked improvement by late July at the latest and then a summery August!