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Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

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The 12z GFS ens shows high pressure never far away

Rz500m6.gifRz500m8.gifRz500m11.gifRz500m14.gifRz500m16.gif

Charts are from Tuesday 17th to Friday 27th

Edited by Summer Sun
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It will be interesting to see how the ECM pans out as the GFS and UKMO now agree on the solution the ECM has churned out every run until this morning.

gfs-0-144.png?12   UW144-21.GIF?11-19

Both hold low pressure towards southern Greenland allowing the Azores high to start to move into its usual position over SW Europe bring a north/south split though perhaps settled weather affecting even the north at times during next week.

Beyond, signs of high pressure becoming increasingly dominant as we head into the final 10 days of May.

gens-21-5-240.png  gens-21-5-300.png   gens-21-5-360.png

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ECM isn't following GFS it keeps the low much closer by

ECM1-168.GIF?11-0ECM1-192.GIF?11-0ECM1-216.GIF?11-0

As a result the warmer air building over France doesn't really make it with the exception possibly of the far south and south west

ECM0-168.GIF?11-0ECM0-192.GIF?11-0ECM0-216.GIF?11-0

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So GFS is now backing UK wide high pressure influence with ECM going for a North-South split. Interesting. 

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Even the beeb / met office are not 100% certain what track the low will take next week it could be another few days before the models start to firm up on its track

3253.png

Until then plenty of dry weather and some sunshine

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According to the GEFS ensembles, once the pressure rises again after next week after a cooler short period during this weekend and possibly unsettled blip during next week depending on if/where the low will track over the UK (it's very hit or miss as illustrated by the models and BBC forecast) it looks set to stay high for a while :)

Edited by wishingforsnow
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This mornings runs show a continuation of the slight uncertain theme. Variances between the three, but a general trend to a slow build of pressure in a weeks time, with a rise in temperatures. 850s back into double digits, so temperatures will be back up towards the mid twenties in the sunshine.

 

ECH1-240.GIF?12-12

The polar vortex looks as if it is being bundled back up into the polar regions, with low pressure covering most of the area. Could be a nice second half/last third of may coming up!

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HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON THURSDAY MAY 12TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Troughs of Low pressure near Southernmost England will be pushed away South by a freshening NNE wind and fresher air moving down from the North over the coming days as a ridge of High pressure moves in close to Western Britain at the weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the UK is currently near 8000ft but will fall markedly from the North in the coming days, this fall most prolific over the East where values nearer to 3500ft look likely by the weekend and nearer to 5000ft in the far West.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Less warm but becoming dry in the South with some rain too especially across the North and West.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream's flow which has been well South of the UK over the coming week or so will weaken and move away to the East across the Meditteranean Sea whereas the Northern arm remains weak and pushes a spore of energy South across the UK over the weekend. Then as we move through the rest of the forecast period the flow remains very variable with a split flow still looking likely with one arm to the North of the UK and one undulating to the South of the UK at times.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

NEW GFS OPERATIONAL The New GFS Operational Run today shows a lot of quite benign conditions over the next few weeks. Most of the time through the period we are governed by a ridge of High pressure stretching up from the SW with a lot of NW winds across the UK with a lot of dry if rather cloudy weather and with chilly nights where skies clear but nearer to average temperatures by day. Through the second week there is a more generally unsettled period indicated especially in the South as Low pressure edges up from the South but by the end of the run conditions revert to fine weather again for many as High pressure ridges in from the West again.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run is relatively similar with just the fact of the High pressure ridge receding far enough away at times to allow more unsettled westerly winds through the second week with some rain possible for all. Some warm and settled conditions under High pressure close by looks as though it could develop late in the period across the South and East.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The clustering today for day 14 shows a lot of High pressure around the UK in one shape or form with a lot of fine and settled weather likely across the UK with temperatures near or above average in light anticyclonic airflow patterns. A few members prefer to have more of an Atlantic cyclonic influence to the pattern under lower pressure to the NW although even on these members runs High pressure is shown quite close to the South and East.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a slack Northerly flow over the UK at the weekend with cooler than of late conditions and the odd shower scattered about on the eastern flank of a ridge of High pressure just to the west. Then next week it looks like winds back towards the West and with Low pressure closing in on Northern Britain more unsettled weather with some rain on a westerly breeze looks likely for a time towards midweek.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show the flow from the North persisting across the next 4-5 days with a cooling theme as the inherent warmth currently across the UK is displaced by colder sourced Arctic air with bright fresh days with chilly nights with a touch of frost.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM The theme of GEM this morning is one of rising pressure displacing the warm and humid and unsettled conditions across the South of the UK into more settled and colder North winds with bright sells and the odd shower over the weekend. Then as we move through next week winds back Westerly and a phase of unsettled weather with some rain looks likely to move across from the West midweek with a trend then towards a NW/SE split with further rain at times in the NW while the South and East see longer drier spells when it may become warmer at times as well.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM has cooler weather on the way by the weekend too as the winds back Northerly for a time. A ridge close to the West of the UK over the weekend should bring dry and bright if cooler weather for many and as winds back Westerly next week the theme is for more unsettled conditions across the North and West while fine conditions are more likely to last longer in the South and East although even here some rain is shown to affect these parts a week or so from now. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today shows the cooler Northerly flow at the weekend with largely dry and bright conditions with just an odd shower. Then as we move through next week a spell of Atlantic Westerly winds seems likely with some rain at times largely but not exclusively towards the North and West. then towards the second weekend High pressure builds in closer to the South and SE with a strong NW/SE split developing with fine and warm conditions across the South and east with the more unsettled weather held well towards the North and West by Day 10.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) Last nights 10 day Mean Chart is showing a theme close to that of the Operational Run at Day 10 with High pressure close to the SE and any unsettled weather more likely towards the far NW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS As yesterday the main emphasis shown by the models continues to point towards a return to a westerly flow across the UK next week.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.2 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.1 pts to UKMO's 96.3 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.5 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.5 pts to UKMO at 86.8pts and GFS at 83.1 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 61.5 pts to 51.2 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 44.7 pts to 37.0 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS The next few weeks present few if any troublesome features to talk about with a lot of quite benign conditions likely across the British Isles as the pattern resets to normal UK synoptics over the next 4 to 5 days. The final embers of the warm and muggy air still over the UK will be pulled away South in the coming 48 hours as a weak cold front runs South tomorrow and Friday night. A quiet and benign weekend of weather is then likely with a a lot of cloud at times, the odd shower and some chilly nights. Then next week the theme is for winds to back towards the West with the risk of some rain almost anywhere for a time but more especially over the North but temperatures should recover somewhat especially by night. Moving further on still the most popular consensus appears to be for High pressure to be building close to the South or SE with these areas seeing a lot more in the way of fine and warm weather developing later in the period but the NW in particular looks like holding on to more of an Atlantic cyclonic influence with some rain. And that's about it really quite a quiet period of weather overall likely with nothing unpleasant or unusual being shown for the period anywhere and after a chilly few nights at the weekend when gardeners and growers need to take note of a risk of ground frost for a couple of nights this risk should be removed with average temperatures at least achieved for most of the period thereafter for all areas.

Next Update Friday May 13th 2016 from 09:00

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A quick look at t144 and GFS still wants the hight to have more of an influence compared to UKMO and ECM

Rtavn1441.gifRecm1441.gifRukm1441.gif

GFS then keeps the high close by

Rtavn1681.gifRtavn1921.gif

ECM isn't a washout by any means the south would hold onto the best of the dry weather with high pressure always close by and becoming very warm at times too

Recm1681.gifRecm1921.gifRecm2161.gifRecm2401.gif

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A lot of toasty runs appearing for next weekend - this morning's are not the first. Long way off but one to watch:

ECM0-240.GIF?12-12   gfs-1-240.png?0

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Looking at the anomalies this morning there is some indication of it getting warmer and more settled towards the end of the month although of course it's nowhere near a done deal.

In the nearer 6-10 time frame not bad agreement with troughs western Atlantic and Scandinavia/eastern Europe with the Azores HP nudging in from the south west. In a nutshell during this period we lose the current patter as the trough moves east and HP builds from the SW. This is but transitory as the eastward movement continues with the trough out west moving to mid Atlantic. This introduces a south westerly upper flow and portends some wet and windy weather, particularly to the north and west. But this may well be short lived as the indications are, at the moment, that the trough will weaken and for heights to build in the eastern Atlantic. Thus more settled weather and  temps above average.

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_61.png

 

 

Edited by knocker
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UKMO shows the high easing away by mid week, but certainly not a wash out by any means and it could easily edge back up by the end of the week

Rukm1441.gif

Edited by Summer Sun
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GFS 12z shows HP building in strongly deep in FI

GFS_HGTMSL_384.png

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21 minutes ago, TomDav said:

GFS 12z shows HP building in strongly deep in FI

GFS_HGTMSL_384.png

So a brief weekend cooldown, followed by a North South split as a few model runs don't have the Atlantic low pressure next week reaching the South and after that ever growing likelihood that temperatures will rise and perhaps giving way to settled weather across the UK as we enter June. Nothing to complain about here :closedeyes:

Edited by wishingforsnow
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The GEFs anomalies tonight continue the theme of flirting with brief ridging mid next week before the trough and the Atlantic enter the fray bringing the likelyhood of some wet and windy weather. Temps around average.Still uncertainty how this will progress but still looking at HP building towards the end of the period and some pleasant weather but not able to pin this down as yet, See what the ecm and NOAA make of it later.

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_61.png

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1 hour ago, wishingforsnow said:

So a brief weekend cooldown, followed by a North South split as a few model runs don't have the Atlantic low pressure next week reaching the South and after that ever growing likelihood that temperatures will rise and perhaps giving way to settled weather across the UK as we enter June. Nothing to complain about here :closedeyes:

Well, unless you happen to be on the wrong side of the 'North South Split'. ;-) With that being said, the forecast for here isn't bad at all - and considering we are, strictly speaking, in the middle of the UK, half of the time I don't know whether I'm in the North or South when taken in the context above. North of England certainly, but there's just as much land to the north of here as there is to the south.

 

Edited by cheese

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At the moment week 2 on the models does suggests conditions turning warmer with a ridge building over Europe. The issue of course where we end up in relation to this, if the ridge gains a foothold into the UK it could turn very warm or even hot if winds swing to the south or south east. Of course we could also see a cyclonic west/south westerly with mixed conditions.

ECM ens

EDM101-168.GIF?12-0   EDM101-216.GIF?12-0

 

GFS ens

gens-21-5-168.png    gens-21-5-216.png

The GFS looks a little more progressive in terms of allowing low heights influence our weather compared to the ECM.

 

 

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In the 6-10 period the ecm and NOAA make bit more of the Atlantic trough than the GEFS but they are more or less on the same page. So again some brief ridging mid week before some unsettled weather kicks in as the ridge declines.

610day.03.gifecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.png

In the latter period the ecm weakens the Atlantic trough a la GEFS, and builds heights in the North Sea area so still inclining towards some warmer and settled weather. The NOAA 8-14 also hints in this direction but I wouldn't bet the house on it at the moment.

814day.03.gif

 

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A quick look at the GFS this morning.

A colder weekend particularly in the north and east but as the low pressure moves east high pressure will nudge in from the SW by Sunday so remaining dry and quite pleasant particularly in the west'

This ridging is short lived as a more mobile zonal pattern is established tracking systems in from the west and wet and windy weather is the order of the day by Tues/Weds with a depression over the UK. This slips away SE only to be replaced by a succession of systems tracking in from the west. In a nutshell a very unsettled week with temps around average.

gfs_6hr_precip_eur3_22.pnggfs_6hr_precip_eur3_29.png

There is not a lot of point in looking further ahead than this but for what it's worth there are signs that HP builds to the east which is interesting.

So what does the EC32 update say?

Pretty much in agreement with the interpretation for next week as the upper trough moves east to be replaced by a more fluid HP/LP scenario After that there are signs that the Atlantic trough weakens and heights build in the vicinity of the UK/Scandinavia portending some more settled weather and temps above average at least until the end of May and there are indications that this could last into June but I suspect this best put in  the pending file.

Edited by knocker
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Yes GFS looking a bit more unsettled in the mid term this morning, though still warm in FI. Be interesting what ECM has to say on this when it trundles out soon...

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ECM has joined GFS in turning things very unsettled right through next week, with low pressure firmly in control, with the high pressure and the warmth shown in the last couple of days gone. Really disappointing. New trend or temporary blip? Looks like a split on the GFS ensembles around day 6 as to what happens, with a warm/cool unsettled split there. OP run on the unsettled side. Any views?

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1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Any views?

Looks like the older version of the GFS had a better handle on next week than the new one.

The MJO has finally moved into active phase and it just happens to be doing so in the Indian Ocean - phase 3. This is a phase that favours troughing over us but if it moves swiftly to 4, as the GFS shows, a much nicer future awaits for the late stages of the month and into June. There will be other drivers for sure but as for now, the models look to be responding to tropical phasing.

ALL_emean_phase_full.gif   P3  MayPhase3gt1500mb.gif  P4  JunePhase4gt1500mb.gif

 

Edited by Nouska
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Huge turnaround this morning in the T192+ range, which of course can happen at this range. GEFS now has 12 out of 22 members with low pressure slap bang on top of us by next Sunday, all pretty similar to the op:

gfs-0-216.png 

However, eight members remaining with a stalled trough to the west so not a dead duck at all. The first one below would need a pretty dramatic turnaround. The second is a bit more typical of the cluster:

gens-20-1-180.png   gens-3-1-216.png

Will be interesting to see where the ECM mean goes this morning, as last night it was much more like the last GEFS member shown above.

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The anomaly charts I use have differences, last night NOAA 6-10 indicated some +ve heights to the SW but not much sign of any ridging upstream of them. ECMWF-GFS this morning has no such indication, I suppose you could sum them both up as 'troughy westerly' pattern from way west into Europe?

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

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