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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

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Good Evening All.!  Well once again its the war between the ecm and gfs output. I must say gfs has been very poor this summer, with ecm being King ! The outlook from the ecm is unsettled right through its ten day outlook from late week , the gfs has thrown a big ridge by day 8!  The ecm does not. Whats  your money on!???

air-fan-smiley-emoticon.gif

atch lench.png

atch lenchx.png

Edited by ANYWEATHER

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It seems as though the models has more balance with drier/wetter, than the actual weather does at the moment, Usually the models are picking up the first autumn storms to bring balance to the weather this time of year, but there's something different, this year, Its much drier and warmer down south than cool and wet. If the ECM is right then balance will return, but lets see...

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Just our luck that most of Europe would sizzle while we sit under useless low pressure.. can we please save that kind of nonsense for the end of September at least? The first half is usually still an extension of summer.

Edited by cheese

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Today

A mainly fine and dry day albeit cloudy in western parts, particularly A.M. and quite warm in the SE. Rain approaching the NW late on.

ens_max1hrprecip_27.pngens_mean1hrprecip_43.pngens_max2mtemp_22.png

 

The GFS this morning. Very briefly.

The situation at 06Z on Friday. Atlantic depression lying SW of Iceland but associated fronts lying across Scotland  The whole caboodle moves ESE over Saturday, bringing rain and showers to most, and by Sunday 12z the low is over southern Sweden with a transient ridge building over the UK in it's wake, The HP hangs on iin the south but the next Atlantic system tracking NE with accompanying front starts effecting the NW by late Tuesday. Not a great point in looking much further ahead at this stage. Note Gaston on the first couple of charts.

gfs_6hr_precip_eur3_14.pnggfs_6hr_precip_eur3_23.pnggfs_6hr_precip_eur3_33.png

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The ecm has a different take on next than the GFS so I can only reiterate much caution must be taken when looking at every det. output for next week. For what it's worth the ecm has a deep low northern Scotland 00z weds. an a another TC pokes it's head above the parapets.

ecm_mslp_uv850_natl_9.png

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GFS has a fair amount of high pressure around from late next week, not an especially by the end of its run with winds starting to come in from the north sea

Rtavn2161.gifRtavn2761.gifRtavn3481.gifRtavn3841.gif

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Another marked variation in the GFS/ECM outputs post T+120hrs, which then become ridiculously different post T+168hrs. Once again I suspect the reality come this time next week will lies somewhere in the middle, but I'm hoping ECM is wrong for obvious reasons!

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Never mind T168 CC, it was quite hilarious at the weekend seeing so many models wrong at T3!!

But being a model discussion output, we need to make something of the charts put in front of us, and again as CC indicates we see the ECM pushing everything rather south and the GFS trying to push everything north. There's a bit more agreement on the ens, with the GEFS mean for early next week not being completely dissimilar to last night's ECM mean - which promotes a WSW - ENE flow and slightly above average temperatures for the beginning part of next week. And the same old stuck record: don't be too excited if you are further north, and don't be too despondent if you are further south! 

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48 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

ECM1-192.GIF?30-12

fear this is more likely though SS, very ugly charts from Atlantic 

 

As with yesterday's 00z the ens is better than the Op

Taking your chart above as an example here's the ens at the same time decent enough for the south at least with pressure remaining fairly high

EDM1-192.GIF?30-12

Beyond this yes pressure falls but it's not too bad (when compared to the Op) with the south always seeing the best of the weather

EDM1-216.GIF?30-12EDM1-240.GIF?30-12

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No one should be surprised by the differences showing up in the synoptic models. There are Tropical storms/Hurricanes in the mix. Take a look at the differences in the anomaly charts from ECMWF-GFS. One has a closed upper low circulation in the far WSW of the Atlantic, the other does not. Quite how a 'mean' chart for 4 days or so can show this upper low is an indication that EC is perhaps having more trouble than GFS at the moment.

Take a look at the 00z outputs for 96h and the position and intensity of the Hurricane or rather ex hurricane by that time. Quite a variation in the EC-GFS-UK Met. It is bound to have, at least some knock on effect in later time frames.

Wetter web page

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsukmeur.html

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

This is the second day that EC has shown the cut off upper low.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

Until the current 3 storms disappear I think it best to look no further than about 72h, could be even less than that at times.

 

 

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The GFS 06z ens shows pressure starting to rise as we move towards mid month

Rz500m12.gifRz500m13.gifRz500m14.gifRz500m15.gifRz500m16.gif

Charts Sun 11 to Thurs 15

Edited by Summer Sun

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UKMO shows high-pressure building for the start of next week

Rukm1441.gif

Edited by Summer Sun

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GFS keeps summer going

ukmaxtemp.pngukmaxtemp.pngukmaxtemp.png

ukmaxtemp.pngukmaxtemp.pngukmaxtemp.pngukmaxtemp.png                                                                                                                   

 

 

 

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8 minutes ago, knocker said:

:shok:

gfs_t850a_natl_39.png

Get the  crayons out early, Malcolm?:yahoo:

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Some nice settled conditions showing on tonight's GFS into wk2, With the heat holding on in the South. There would be some lovely Autumnal days under these conditions.

npsh500.png

Edited by Polar Maritime

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21 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Get the  crayons out early, Malcolm?:yahoo:

It's okay I've a new box of crimson on order Pete. :whistling:

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5 minutes ago, knocker said:

It's okay I've a new box of crimson on order Pete. :whistling:

It's a scorcher!:good:

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Doesn't last long blink and you'll miss it burst of warmth

Recm2162.gif

Overall not too bad for the SE with the longest drier spells in out to D8 or so whilst the NW will see the bulk of the rain all in all a fairly typical NW-SE split really

Edited by Summer Sun

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Oh the joy of model watching. The ecm phases in a decaying Gaston with a new depression that impacts the UK on Monday It then goes into a very complicated sub plot by incorporating a perturbation tracking NE from the SW with the large circulation of another depression to the SW of Iceland which brings rain and gales to the UK by the end of the week. Both outputs from the GFS and ecm for next week best put straight in the bin.

ecm_mslp_uv850_natl_7.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_11.png

Edited by knocker

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The difference between the GFS and ECM is like chalk and cheese, but interestingly they both bring a predominantly warm/sometimes hot week next week, especially around Wednesday/Thursday. I'll leave it at that as the 18Z will roll out soon but it will be interesting to see which one is nearer the mark. Gaston is really (as expected) causing uncertainty.

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ECM ens day 6/8/10

EDM1-144.GIF?30-0   EDM1-192.GIF?30-0   EDM1-240.GIF?30-0

To be honest the ECM suite still wants to maintain a similar pattern to what we have for this week with a west/south west flow offering temperatures which are a little above normal or even warm in the south with mainly dry weather with the north seeing near normal conditions.

 

GEFs for the same time

gens-21-1-144.png   gens-21-1-192.png   gens-21-1-240.png

The ensemble suite like the operational is keen on developing that Azores ridge extension and pushing it north east through the UK and into Scandinavia offering more widespread warm and fine weather. Interestingly other models (UKMO/GEM) offer a similar solution at the start of next week (around day 6).

UW144-21.GIF?30-18   gem-0-144.png?12

So the ECM is flattest and offers more mixed conditions for the north whilst the rest offer a more widespread spell of early Autumn settled weather. For those in the south the outlook continues to look pretty dry and pretty warm regardless. Still with Gaston and other tropical systems in the Atlantic then we can't offer too much confidence. Lets hope that we can get some settled/warm weather further north during the first half of September.

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On the face of it there isn't a huge difference between the GEFS and EPS mean 5-10 mean anomalies but probably enough to indicate which way each individual trend is going as seen by the individual breakdown at T240. The ecm makes much more of the trough anomaly and is more amplified which is quite likely causing the det, divergence. NOAA would seem be going along with the GEFs and favoring some Azores ridging, certainly in the south. We need to get all three on board.

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.png

eps_z500a_nh_41.pnggefs_z500a_nh_41.png

610day.03.gif

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2 hours ago, MP-R said:

The difference between the GFS and ECM is like chalk and cheese, but interestingly they both bring a predominantly warm/sometimes hot week next week, especially around Wednesday/Thursday. I'll leave it at that as the 18Z will roll out soon but it will be interesting to see which one is nearer the mark. Gaston is really (as expected) causing uncertainty.

Keep in mind that some intense heat is forecast for Iberia early next week (40-44C), considering it is now September. Should a plume be encouraged, it could well contain some major hot weather.

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