Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[knocker]

The NOAA and ecm anomalies tonight show little change from unsettled in the next 14 days with the upper low anchored to the south west of the UK and HP ridging north. Possible  changing towards the end the run as the trough weakens and retrogresses. This doesn't mean it will be diabolical and I can envisage a number of fine days interspersed with some, shall we say, some interesting ones.

Edited May 18, 2016 by knocker

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

The NOAA and ecm anomalies tonight show little change from unsettled in the next 14 days with the upper low anchored to the south west of the UK and HP ridging north. Possible  changing towards the end the run as the trough weakens and retrogresses. This doesn't mean it will be diabolical and I can envisage a number of fine days interspersed with some, shall we say, some interesting ones.

Well knocks, that sounds fine to me: winds mostly between SW and SE, some fine warm and also some rather unsettled weather...And the chance of one or two thundery outbreaks. What am I missing?

[weatherguru14]

41 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Possibly....the Beeb long ranger tonight has backtracked somewhat from the last 2 nights as well, in stating that low pressure will have more of an influence than thought. I'm not sure why they pushed the envelope on the high pressure scenario the last 2 days, it was never as clear cut as they were making it out, and I'm surprised they pretty much committed to that outcome amongst this much uncertainty! Even a rank amateur such as myself could see that was a tad foolhardy.

they lied? just give people false hope? happens every summer...

[knocker]

7 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Possibly....the Beeb long ranger tonight has backtracked somewhat from the last 2 nights as well, in stating that low pressure will have more of an influence than thought. I'm not sure why they pushed the envelope on the high pressure scenario the last 2 days, it was never as clear cut as they were making it out, and I'm surprised they pretty much committed to that outcome amongst this much uncertainty! Even a rank amateur such as myself could see that was a tad foolhardy.

I don't think that's fair comment. Yes they went for the probable influence of HP, and their access to more information and being highly trained meteorologists it was no doubt the percentage play at the time. And in fact it also was indicated on the anomalies which we have access to as they were all pointing to the upper trough being further west and not anchored just to our south west, Which also of course hasn't materialised yet. It escapes me why you consider this foolhardy as the longer range forecasts are never caste in stone, even for professionals.

Edited May 19, 2016 by knocker

[mb018538]

Of course not, but I feel it doesn't help joe public, who's perception of any forecasting organisation is that they never get it right. Anyway, that's something that's rapidly veering off course, so back to the models!

This mornings output is messy to say the least. UKMO develops a cool NE flow by 144 hours, with an azores low.
GFS has a double centred low affecting the UK at the same timeframe, before a small piece of heat drifts up from the south at day 9-10.

All eyes on ECM again!

[knocker]

I was actually questioning your interpretation of what the models were saying not their's.

Interesting possible scenario for the bank holiday with the upper trough where it is. Won't happen like this of course.

 

Edited May 19, 2016 by knocker

[Singularity]

 

ECM on the left has made a subtle, yet significant adjustment this morning; a shallow disturbance sneaks through before the ridge S. of Greenland shuts off the westerlies. This is what GFS - on the right - has been showing to a much greater extent.

 

The results for the weekend are remarkably similar to the setup we had for the weekend before last - but with the low further west this time. Warm but increasingly unstable, the focus for instability perhaps starting off further south on this occasion - but of course such details at this range are not worth taking at all seriously.

Here's hoping we can get UKMO and GEM on board this evening, which both lack the 'sneaky low' at +144 on their respective 00z runs. It looks to be small detail that determines whether we get the warm, gently destabilising weekend or a cooler one with showers and some longer spells of rain.

[mb018538]

ECM is showing a potentially thundery spell this morning, though as others have said, with the position of the low all crucial (as singularity says above) as to whether we get some warmth and thundery activity, or just plain bog standard low pressure and rain. 

[johnholmes]

An upper low SW of the UK, west of Iberia with heights rising and possibly an actual ridge over the far NE of the UK and further ENE from there seems the most likely for the upper air pattern in the 6-10 day period. All 3 of the anomaly charts show something along these lines. The detail, as usual, will only come nearer the time.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON THURSDAY MAY 19TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure will move away East today with a system of troughs moving bodily across the UK from the West later today and tonight clearing to a westerly flow tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level and snow forecast is now suspended until the beginning of October.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rather changeable with some rain or showers at times but some dry and brighter periods as well especially in the South and East. Near or above average temperatures.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream is expected to buckle South again over the weekend as Low pressure edges in from the East Atlantic to the UK. thereafter the flow sets up well South of the UK forming a deep trough over the eastern Atlantic, the UK and NW Europe with low pressure dominant close to the South of the UK frequently. 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the weather as very changeable over the coming few weeks with Low pressure moving into the UK at the weekend and then persisting in close proximity to the South of the UK for some considerable time while pressure builds to the North of the UK. The pattern tries to reset late in the period with SW winds gradually becoming more established.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run sees things very similar with an unsettled weekend leading into a brief dry and warm period early next week. then High pressure transfers well North of the UK with low pressure feeding up across Southern and Central areas with rain and showers for all especially over the South. Then at the end of the run the pattern remains quite mixed with showers still likely for many under rather slack pressure conditions and High pressure to the NW.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The clustering today looks very slack pressure based with the risk of showers and static conditions in 2 weeks time with winds from a North or NE direction with only a relatively small group of members deviating from this course.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows better weather early next week following an unsettled weekend. Then by midweek Low pressure to the SW and South and rising pressure to the North sets up an Easterly flow with relatively warm weather but with the increasing risk of showers across the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show troughs bringing rain slowly East through the UK at the weekend followed by a showery Westerly flow for a time before pressure shows signs of rising from the SW over the early days of next week.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM The theme of GEM shows a short better spell of weather early next week with at least a showery weekend ahead of that for many and a wet one for some. The better weather then is lost to a strengthening easterly flow and falling pressure from the South as we move through next week with some rain and showers again especially in the South. Conditions slowly slacken thereafter with a more scattered array of showers in light winds and slack pressure gradients across the UK to end the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows a changeable pattern of weather next week with some dry and bright weather mixed with spells of cloud and rain and on this run the North too is under threat of rain at times as much as the South with time. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today is as confused as the rest in specific detail in the weather for the next 10 days. The main theme seems to be that the UK Low complex at the weekend with it's showery weather will give way to higher pressure briefly early next week before this is sucked away North with falling pressure to the SW of the UK bringing muggy and humid air North across the UK with thundery rain and showers affecting the South at times and more widely later as the Low makes inroads into Southern Britain to end the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 10 Day mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure across Western Ireland affecting the UK with a Southerly biased wind bringing relatively warm and humid air and thundery showers at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme from the models today remain focused on higher pressure to the North of the UK and Low to the South and SW next week.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.5 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.2 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.3 pts to UKMO's 96.1 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.8 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.8 pts to UKMO at 87.1 pts and GFS at 84.9 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 58.5 pts to 48.9 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 39.1 pts to 32.2 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS The models today remain as sketchy on detail as ever for the weather across the UK in the coming two weeks with uncertainty starting from as early as this weekend. What we have currently is a westerly flow across the Atlantic carrying troughs across the UK at times bringing a mix of rain or showers at times with some bright and dry weather in between. It now looks as though the gales for the weekend will thankfully not take place at least on a widespread scale with rain probably more the disruptive feature for these with outside plans such as me this weekend. This will take the form of heavy showers and some longer spells of rain in places, timings uncertain. Then as the Low pressure responsible fills and moves away East over the UK the weather looks like settling down for a day or two early next week as High pressure builds in from the SW. This doesn't hold though as Low pressure to the SW by midweek pushes High pressure to the North of the UK with an East or SE flow developing across all areas with some thundery risk moving up into southern Britain from most output and to many other areas too from some. The models then struggle with any guaranteed evolution beyond this point with conditions through the second week across the UK highly uncertain given the spreads between the models and runs within their own ensemble groups. So although conditions over the next week seem to be gathering a pattern between the models anything shown for any particular solution beyond a week's time need to be taken with a pinch of salt at the moment and with so much slack pressure looking likely across the Northern hemisphere over the coming weeks and a Jet stream seemingly well South almost anything is possible so stay tuned. 

Next Update Friday May 20th 2016 from 09:00

[Man With Beard]

I started looking at the potential for Bank Holiday warmth a few days ago, here's where we are up to:

   

Agreement on an Atlantic low to the west of Ireland stick fairly solid - if anything, the low has moved south in the last couple of days, which gives even more potential for continental air. ECM/GFS now in agreement on positioning. 

   

Also agreement at T240/T252 as far as could be expected - the influence of the low lessening even more, so perhaps even greater chances of warm weather moving up from the south as the weekend progresses. 

Clearly, though, the low is not far enough away to be confident of a dry weekend. Five or six members look like this:

though even this member sees the low move away quickly:

So currently about 60/40 split in favour of a warm and mostly sunny (or thundery) bank holiday, with the ratio less favorable the further west you are.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO shows high pressure starting to build through the 1st half of next week

 

With a north easterly flow the high temps are likely to be in the west but it would be pleasant enough anywhere in sunshine and some shelter from the north easterly breeze

[wishingforsnow]

It all depends on the position of the low. Certainly low pressure may have a bigger influence than previously thought if the low from the west of the UK is stubborn and doesn't clear off to allow hot weather up from the Continent - some model runs do show this set up but other runs such as ECM and some GEFS members show the High Pressure pushing on through and delivering the warmth and dry weather. But at the moment it's very much still unknown which way it will go. This is what the Beeb were hinting at, it's not that they were wrong about possible High Pressure influence from the end of next week. 

On the other hand, ECM is showing high pressure building from early next week as per @Summer Sun's charts. Whether this develops into warm/dry weather or unsettled weather is very much dependant on if the High Pressure can push the low west of the UK out enough to allow warmer/hot temperatures up or if the Low will scupper the influence of the HP ridge from earlier in the week.

[Singularity]

The GFS run is a vague mess from next Wednesday onward, and the reason is that the low west of Europe becomes completely cut-off from the Atlantic jet on that day:

 

See how that shallow low has just headed straight through Iceland instead of dropping south to be absorbed by the trough west of Europe. This continues the trend from the 06z, which did take the low south but without much enthusiasm, resulting in interaction with the trough west of Europe while it was still NW of the UK. This resulted in a flabby low across the UK while the southern flank of the trough, still west of Iberia, gained a second-wind, this trundling NE during the weekend. Much like the 12z, this was a very 'circumstantial' run, representing just one of countless possible outcomes should the polar jet not undertake a nice clean interaction with the Euro trough that causes it to stall out west of the UK (the jet forms a 'standing wave', keeping the trough going without propelling it on east).

I've phrased it like that because the ECM 12z continues to portray a stall-out west of Europe, at least for a couple of days:

  

Temperatures trending upward, perhaps mid-20's in places by Saturday, but with the threat of showers and perhaps a longer spell of rain at some point. 

I'm keeping a close eye on 28th as my grandparents are celebrating a rather astonishing 75th anniversary and have plans to make good use of their quite large garden. That's two runs now that ECM has showed a low approaching from the south on Saturday - there could be a batch of elevated storms overnight into Sunday - so suffice to say, it's looking... interesting.

[wishingforsnow]

Again it's a case of hoping the ECM/GEFS/UKMO is closer to the mark for Bank Holiday over the GFS.

[knocker]

The ecm det 6-10 anomalies are very much as one would expect.

[Man With Beard]

So in summary, a similar pattern emerging to the warm spell of earlier in this month ... a real knife-edge between warmish rain and a heatwave ... the heatwave was just about the winner last time, but no guarantee that will happen this time, that trough is very close...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

Edited May 19, 2016 by Man With Beard

[knocker]

True MWB but it does look a long shot to drag very warm air from the south. We could do with the upper trough further south and that looks a tad unlikely.

The ecm and NOAA 6-10 are in fair agreement so temps okay but weather detail will have to await the location of the surface low. AS the EPS moves into the 10-15 period the trough declines and retrogresses and high pressure builds over the UK with temps a little above average. This is a little more progressive the take NOAA has it.

Edited May 19, 2016 by knocker

[knocker]

Last night's EC32 mean anomaly update is not without interest. Well IMO anyway.

Starting on 00z 27th we have the familiar picture of the upper low south west of Ireland, HP southern Europe and norhern Scandinavia ridging west to the western Atlantic. Ergo surface low situated to the west with a southerly quadrant feed into the UK of slightly warmer than average temps and with the possibility of thundery outbreaks but of course any detail yet to be resolved.

But this analysis is very short lived as over the weekend the trough declines rapidly and pressure rises to the east leaving the surface analysis a bit vague but generally speaking a large slack area of lowish pressure over the UK and points west. Temps still probably a little above average.

From here on to the 7th June pressure builds in the vacinity of the UK and west in mid Atlantic as the Azores HP becomes more influential portending some very settled weather with temps around average, perhaps slightly above.

Just for the record there are no indications that there will be any major changes from this for the whole of June but keep in mind this is not the full suite.

In a nutshell I would take this any day.

So the GFS for the BH weekend. A slack area of low pressure.

Edited May 20, 2016 by knocker

[mb018538]

Looks like we're going to miss out on anything in the medium term....from a cool NE'ly to start with, before veering a bit more easterly. Low pressure looks like it's not quite going to be far enough south or west to deliver anything overly warm, and instead we're going to be left with things around average with rain around. After that, any number of outcomes are a possibility.

[Paul]

We've just added a new chart viewer to the site for the new GFS hourly data (up to 120 hours) - there's free and extra versions available from the link below:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=gfs-hourly;sess=

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON FRIDAY MAY 20TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Troughs of Low pressure will move East across the UK at times today and over the weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level and snow forecast is now suspended until the beginning of October.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rather changeable with some rain or showers at times but some dry and brighter periods as well especially in the South and East. Near or above average temperatures.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream is expected to buckle South again over the weekend as Low pressure edges in from the East Atlantic to the UK. The flow remains further South than is normal for the time of year, blowing in a NE'ly direction across the near Continent for much of next week. In the second week the flow becomes weak and ill defined.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The main theme of the GFS Operational Run this morning is for a generally changeable period to come under Low pressure through the first week or so. Low pressure over or near the UK this weekend is replaced by higher pressure moving North to the North of the UK next week at the same time as Low pressure transfers SW of the UK with thundery showers feeding North later next week before in the second phase of the run fine and settled conditions are shown developing first in the South then to all areas to end the run..

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run shows a similar pattern to the synoptics over the next few weeks but small differences in pressure distribution and the nature of air could result in different weather events place to place and day to day. For example next weeks Low pressure from the SW is more muted on this run in a similar way that the higher pressure in the second week is too with the risk of showery rain in light winds the main theme of the two weeks.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The clustering today looks very slack pressure based with the bias towards higher pressure rather than low influential to the UK with a fair amount of dry and benign weather conditions as a whole across the UK in 14 days.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning maintains it's theme of better weather for a time early next week as High pressure transfers North of the UK with shallow Low pressure moving up from the SW introducing the risk of thundery showers to at least Southern Britain later next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show troughs bringing rain slowly East through the UK at the weekend followed by a rise in pressure from the SW gradually positioning itself as a High pressure area to the NW of the UK towards the middle of next week.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM The theme of GEM shows a 10 day period when slack pressure across the UK is likely. This makes forecasting very difficult to predict day to day as there will always be a risk of showers or outbreaks of sometimes thundery rain mixed with some fine warm spells for almost all the UK especially early next week and again towards the end of the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows a much more coherent fall of pressure to the SW of the UK next week resulting in a stronger ESE flow with thundery showers edging into at least Southern Britain with the North seeing the best of the drier and warmer weather that will be around as well.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today is very supportive of the Low pressure to the SW next week becoming absorbed by slack pressure across NW Europe in general with plenty of heavy and thundery showers likely almost anywhere in light winds and plenty of dry, bright and probably humid and warm weather as well.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) The 10 Day mean Chart from last night shows slack pressure gradients across the UK in relatively unstable air supporting thundery showers and outbreaks of rain mixed with warm and bright spells in between..

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme from the models today seem to lean towards slack pressure meaning light winds and a sunshine and shower mix of weather across the UK with day to day variances hard to predict.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.5 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.2 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.3 pts to UKMO's 96.1 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.8 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.8 pts to UKMO at 87.4 pts and GFS at 84.9 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 58.7 pts to 50.1 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 38.1 pts to 32.4 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS The models today continue to looks very undecided on events beyond the early days of next week. It all seems to hinge on how much extent of Low pressure to the SW of the UK then influences conditions across the UK and where pressure patterns beyond move. The problems are also complicated by a weak Jet Stream later next week and beyond with little guidance on where it will actually lie but my best shot this morning is that after a drier and warmer phase following an unsettled weekend it looks like an Easterly flow will develop with rain or thundery showers moving up from the South and as pressure then falls generally across the UK showers could become widespread and heavy at times but interspersed by comparably bright and sunny warm and probably humid conditions. That's about it really and speculation beyond that analysis seems futile with such slack synoptics likely later next week and onward. I am not able to produce a report now until Monday morning so to all my readers have a successful weekend at dodging the showers and hopefully I will return Monday morning looking at some summery synoptics.

Next Update Monday May 23rd 2016 from 09:00

[knocker]

I think I would treat the latter part of the ecm with some caution. It looks reasonable up to Friday 00z  but then introduces an upper trough moving SE from north of Iceland  We end up with an upper low over Scandinavia which joins forces with our trough to the SW  This has the effect of dragging our surface low pressure east which is in fact contrary to expectations.

[knocker]

The ens anomaly is as expected.

 

[Man With Beard]

The Bank Holiday conundrum goes on. The models have done very well in pinpointing the upper trough to our west (increasingly to our SW). But how close will it get? Touch and go, still. On the one hand, we have charts like this - tasty!

and a few like this - dodgy!

This will go on a while, I imagine