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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

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looks ok from the models the south of coarse gets the best of it im pretty optimistic that the azores heights will continue to bring fine weather at times in the south its only towards the end of the runs that cooler air makes inroads but im not convinced 

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Morning all :)

Have to say for all the excitement on here on what is, to be honest, a fairly bog-standard "hot snap", the output as a whole isn't wholly inspiring this morning for those wanting another burst of heat.

To be fair, though, if you want settled, reasonable, average mid-July fare, GFS has plenty of that on offer:

gfs-0-144.png?0

Very reasonable for the south and a "typical" summer chart with the Azores HP ridging over southern Britain. No chance of plumes or storms from that but if 25c and reasonable humidity works for you, you'll be fine.

Ominous signs and they've been there for a while of a pattern change as we reach the end of the month. Heights rebuilding over Greenland and points north and the jet coming back south do not augur well for what is, I believe, the wettest month of the year statistically:

gfs-0-240.png?0

Far too early to be too pessimistic but ECM offers a similar path to a return to cooler, more unsettled and GEM is, if anything, worse so there are signs that while we have some lovely summer weather over the next week or so, the turn of the month and into August isn't looking at this stage anywhere near so helpful.

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1 hour ago, coldcomfort said:

Without question the biggest cause of arguments and bickering in this thread is when anyone dares mention either cold breaking down in Winter or heat breaking down in Summer, in fact even the word breakdown itself tends to cause backs to rise in many. It really is time folk learnt to accept this is a model discussion thread, where we should discuss what the models are showing and if that happens to be a breakdown, then those who mention it deserve not to be attacked for so doing.  

On that point a change to significantly cooler air looks on the cards for all after midweek and if ECM is to be believed the weekend will see a return to trough domination and a rather cool, showery mix in general for next week. As as often been the case of late GFS is not quite so negative, but even it suggests the heat and humidity of the coming few days will become a distant memory from Friday, with a much cooler Atlantic flow predominating....ditto UKMO at T+144hrs.

Bottom line here is the setup some of us were talking about a few days ago re the 10-14 day period is still pretty much the same. Despite the near term heat there is no real pattern change, indeed there was never likely to be any real pattern change, this is in reality a welcome blip - nothing more, nothing less. Probably best to enjoy it and just accept it's neither here to stay or likely to return anytime soon....ultimately it will be much better for the blood pressure!

 

 

 

Thanks CC and of course you are absolutely right about the tone of debate - I know I have had disagreements with people such as Knocker in the past but they're all in good humour from my part, and I actually defended him many times during the winter months when aggro was going his way. The disagreements are part of the fun of it for me - let's continue to have them without getting personal!

On to the models - Yes I can't disagree too much with your assessment of where things are going longer term - the ECM ens in particular looks quite mixed by T240.

EDM1-240.GIF?18-12

But I would point out that whilst heights are strong in the Azores, and main troughing stays to our north, there's always going to be the chance of another "breakaway" from the Azores High in our direction, even next week. In addition to most of the op runs yesterday, a few GEFS members entertain this on the 00Zs:

gens-8-1-216.png

Another variant on that idea is for the Azores High to nudge in just enough to give a SW / NE split:

gens-0-1-240.png

So I still feel the same way as I did a few days ago - the rest of July is unlikely to be wall to wall sunshine, but a mixture of short "very good" and "not so good" spells. 

 

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13 minutes ago, stodge said:

 

Have to say for all the excitement on here on what is, to be honest, a fairly bog-standard "hot snap", 

There is nothing bog standard about a hot snap in the UK, especially in a summer as cr*p as this one, some areas will reach 30/31c today, a few favoured spots could reach 34c tomorrow and 30c should be reached in the s / se on wednesday. 

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1 minute ago, Karl. said:

There is nothing bog standard about a hot snap in the UK, especially in a summer as cr*p as this one, some areas will reach 30/31c today, a few favoured spots could reach 34c tomorrow and 30c should be reached in the s / se on wednesday. 

If we consider this to be bog standard, we'd have to say 1976, 1990 and 2006 were all bog-standard too:

archives-1976-6-28-0-1.png?  archives-1990-8-3-0-1.png?  archives-2006-7-19-12-1.png?

compared with forecast for tomorrow

gfs-1-42.png?0

only last year and the incredible 2003 (multiple days above 20C at 850hpa) are in a different league

archives-2015-7-1-12-1.png?  archives-2003-8-10-0-1.png?

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9 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

If we consider this to be bog standard, we'd have to say 1976, 1990 and 2006 were all bog-standard too:

archives-1976-6-28-0-1.png?  archives-1990-8-3-0-1.png?  archives-2006-7-19-12-1.png?

compared with forecast for tomorrow

gfs-1-42.png?0

only last year and the incredible 2003 (multiple days above 20C at 850hpa) are in a different league

archives-2015-7-1-12-1.png?  archives-2003-8-10-0-1.png?

Agreed, this could be the highlight of this abysmal summer so we should enjoy it if we can, hopefully it won't be the last of the heat though, bog standard doesn't compute with this little peach of a spell. :- )

Edited by Karl.

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Just now, Karl. said:

There is nothing bog standard about a hot snap in the UK, especially in a summer as cr*p as this one, some areas will reach 30/31c today, a few favoured spots could reach 34c tomorrow and 30c should be reached in the s / se on wednesday. 

Have to agree with Stodge on this Karl.I suppose another way to look at this is that you could compare it to a 72 hour Northerly in January . anyway let's enjoy it while it lasts. 

C.S

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34 minutes ago, stodge said:

Morning all :)

Have to say for all the excitement on here on what is, to be honest, a fairly bog-standard "hot snap", the output as a whole isn't wholly inspiring this morning for those wanting another burst of heat.

To be fair, though, if you want settled, reasonable, average mid-July fare, GFS has plenty of that on offer:

gfs-0-144.png?0

Very reasonable for the south and a "typical" summer chart with the Azores HP ridging over southern Britain. No chance of plumes or storms from that but if 25c and reasonable humidity works for you, you'll be fine.

Ominous signs and they've been there for a while of a pattern change as we reach the end of the month. Heights rebuilding over Greenland and points north and the jet coming back south do not augur well for what is, I believe, the wettest month of the year statistically:

gfs-0-240.png?0

Far too early to be too pessimistic but ECM offers a similar path to a return to cooler, more unsettled and GEM is, if anything, worse so there are signs that while we have some lovely summer weather over the next week or so, the turn of the month and into August isn't looking at this stage anywhere near so helpful.

Apologises if i read this  wrong  but i thought October was the wettest month of the year?  Or you could mean summer months    which indeed August is the wettest month. And in that case ive made a fool of myself again

Edited by weirpig

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30 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

If we consider this to be bog standard, we'd have to say 1976, 1990 and 2006 were all bog-standard too:

archives-1976-6-28-0-1.png?  archives-1990-8-3-0-1.png?  archives-2006-7-19-12-1.png?

compared with forecast for tomorrow

gfs-1-42.png?0

only last year and the incredible 2003 (multiple days above 20C at 850hpa) are in a different league

archives-2015-7-1-12-1.png?  archives-2003-8-10-0-1.png?

By bog standard he probably means only a couple of days in length. Final temperatures yet to be confirmed aside, that is pretty bog standard for the UK.

This is not comparable to either of those years as all those spells lasted much longer.

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1 minute ago, MP-R said:

By bog standard he probably means only a couple of days in length. Final temperatures yet to be confirmed aside, that is pretty bog standard for the UK.

This is not comparable to either of those years as all those spells lasted much longer.

A spanish plume is a spanish plume, not bog standard in any duration, this one lasts 3 days..not to be sniffed at...we are lucky to even have it,  a few members, including a few senior posters said it wouldn't happen!:)

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11 minutes ago, Karl. said:

A spanish plume is a spanish plume, not bog standard in any duration, this one lasts 3 days..not to be sniffed at...we are lucky to even have it,  a few members, including a few senior posters said it wouldn't happen!:)

Then we'll have to agree to disagree. Spanish plumes are just one of the many setups we see in summer, nothing unusual really, it happens almost every year. The fact that it should not be sniffed at or some people doubted it is immaterial. 

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22 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Then we'll have to agree to disagree. Spanish plumes are just one of the many setups we see in summer, nothing unusual really, it happens almost every year. The fact that it should not be sniffed at or some people doubted it is immaterial. 

Agreed, nice and toasty for the next 3 days..who would have thought.:D

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The 06Z confirms the 20c 850pa line flirts with the south coast Tuesday night into Wednesday but then quickly collapses back SE into Europe.

I realise I've stirred up a hornet's nest with my earlier comments which I entirely stand by:

In the context of the summer so far, I gladly concede this is a noteworthy spell of weather - it will be much warmer and indeed hotter than anything we've seen so far. It could quite conceivably be the hottest spell of the year - might not be but could be.

In the context of summers gone by and I put 1976 and 2003 up there at the top of the tree, this is an unexceptional spell. We had one like it last year. 33-34c in London in unusual but it's not exceptional in terms of breaking records - 40c would be and no one is suggesting that.

Given the warmest air crosses us at night it is possible the night time minimum from Tuesday night into Wednesday might be threatened (a minimum of 22 or 23c in London will be exceptional and highly uncomfortable for millions of people). That for me will be the most interesting part of this upcoming 48 hours or so and let's not beat about the bush, this is a short-term phenomenon akin to a winter northerly. The warmest air never gets to the far north and naturally stays longest in the south.

We are NOT looking at a 10-14 day spell of temperatures topping 30c every day - once this heat passes GFS suggests a return to a more reasonable warm settled spell with temperatures in the mid 20s for London and the SE - slightly above average, very pleasant  but completely normal for the time of year. There's plenty of summer left and 30c in September and even early October is achievable under the right set up.

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Well it sure is looking toasty Karl. Even this morning I walked out the door to  a very humid feel . Likely to feel far more uncomfortable by tomorrow. Yellow warnings out for much of the north so , potentially, some rather nasty weather about for some . 

 

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4 minutes ago, DR(S)NO said:

Yellow warnings out for much of the north so , potentially, some rather nasty weather about for some . 

 

Indeed and its an unusual set up in that the hottest and most humid areas look like largely missing the severe thunderstorms completely whereas the west and north looks like having giant hail, local flooding & frequent lightening later tomorrow, overnight and during wednesday.

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GFS 06Z OP keeps the settled weather going well into next week.

gfs-0-216.png?6

Very reasonable but the ridge collapses from the north soon after as the trough takes over and while we're not talking a complete washout, the turn of the month continues to look far from settled.

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quite a few posts really should be in the summer 2016 thread, so yet again, stuck on repeat, I have to say..............can you guess yet?......................well done, you guessed right, "model output discussion only!".............it's quite remarkable to see that some members still think that those 4 words apply to everybody except them :fool::80:

 

Edited by ajpoolshark

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2 hours ago, stodge said:

In the context of summers gone by and I put 1976 and 2003 up there at the top of the tree, this is an unexceptional spell. We had one like it last year. 33-34c in London in unusual but it's not exceptional in terms of breaking records - 40c would be and no one is suggesting that.

Sorry to stray off topic just once more AJP, but just to respond as I started it ... fair enough, comparisons to 1976 perhaps were not the most sensible, I can definitely agree this not in that league!! - but in terms of intensity of heat, I would guess there have been less than 10 instances of the 20C 850hpa line crossing the UK in the last 100 years. 

And of course this could end up being a record breaking spell. The current all-time record high minimum for the UK is 23.9C I believe. Here is EURO4's latest prediction for minima on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning:

16072006_1806.gif

22-24C as a minimum widely across London and central England - pretty horrific really.

Once again the EURO4 has it hotter than the GFS for 850s tomorrow (remember the EURO4 nailed it last July)

16071918_1806.gif

 

Edited by Man With Beard

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I think recent models are too variable to write off late July/early August just yet.

Surely the usual FI caution should be just as applicable against possible trough dominated prospects more than ten days away. We're always advised to apply plenty of caution against more HP-influenced FI output. The same caution should be applied against summer write-off predictions that far away. Nothing is done and dusted yet.

 

We're not even sure about the details for this coming Friday and Saturday yet.

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Looking at last night's NOAA this morning's GEFS and ecm anomalies merely reaffirms that there is no apparent sign of a pattern change within the 14 day period.

The pattern has a familiar ring to it with positive anomaly Greenland, ridging Scandinavia, a trough to the north west and HP to the south west. As I have mentioned previously, IMO the day to day variations with the UK weather will be strongly influenced by the waxing and waning of the trough and the Azores high throughout the period. Ergo the surface ridging of the Azores HP will come and go and thus produce some drier and sunny interludes.. The north west and north not quite so lucky  This variation within the trough/HP scenario can be noticed by comparing the ecm and GEFS 6-10. In the ext period there would appear to a consensus bringing the trough more into play and thus a cooler period.

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_39.png610day.03.gif

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_61.png814day.03.gif

But hey, Sidney was enjoying the sunshine this morning.

Sid.jpg

Edited by knocker

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28 minutes ago, William of Walworth said:

I think recent models are too variable to write off late July/early August just yet.

Surely the usual FI caution should be just as applicable against possible trough dominated prospects more than ten days away. We're always advised to apply plenty of caution against more HP-influenced FI output. The same caution should be applied against summer write-off predictions that far away. Nothing is done and dusted yet.

 

We're not even sure about the details for this coming Friday and Saturday yet.

If I may offer a tentative suggestion and not an authoritarian view point. You are really comparing oranges and apples here. If there is pretty good agreement between the models over, say, two or three days on the upper air pattern then you have established a framework within which the surface evolution can evolve and thus a pretty good way forward and pretty reliable. The deterministic runs will eventually resolve the detail but it's unrealistic to expect them to do this much further than five days ahead and even, as has been noted recently, less than that.

 

Edited by knocker

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UKMO shows high pressure getting close to the UK for the weekend

Rukm1201.gifRukm1441.gif

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UKMo looks OK out to 144, probably similar to GFS, so a decent spell of weather for many with SE England having the best of it further away from any trough influence.

The signal for a Greenland High is now very strong so we will need a lot of luck longer term to avoid the trough of despair.,.,

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The GFS has the downpours moving in Tes/Weds mainly effecting the NW. Followed quite rapidly by cooler air from the west which stays with the UK for the next ten days allowing of course for the usual dance between the LP and HP. The latter period subject to change on the next run.

gfs_6hr_precip_eur3_8.pnggfs_t2maf_slp_eur3_38.png

Edited by knocker

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In some parts yes knocker - but the warm air never leaves the SE corner until next Monday (a week from now) on the GFS run, with the UKMO broadly similar (850s over 10c still, meaning temps around 25c still in spots). After this it all depends how the trough interacts. We will need some luck to stop it sliding right over the UK, but for now specific detail will be hard to nail down. I'll just enjoy the next week down here, it could well end up being the best week of the whole summer. :)

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