Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[mb018538]

ECM also has an unsettled end, though not as bad as the GFS. Slightly less settled than last night. Better the further S/E you head, temps around average.

[mountain shadow]

I had hoped we would get a more prolonged settled spell in the NW,  regrettably the models are firming up on a return to unsettled conditions next week.

 

[Summer Sun]

A dry start to next week

Towards midweek we see the jet stream firing up sending low pressure systems our way the exact track of these will remain open to doubt for a while yet but all areas would be a risk of some showers or longer spells of rain

GFS has a different take on the low compared to ECM at t192

And then we have GEM which keeps the south drier for longer with the far north getting the most of the rain / showers

Edited May 10, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON TUESDAY MAY 10TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Low pressure to the South of the UK with associated troughs straddling Southern Britain will continue to bring outbreaks of rain across Southern Britain while the North remains largely dry and fine in an Easterly flow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The UK continues to see the freezing level across the UK at around 8000ft where it will remain for the next few days. Then towards the weekend the level will fall to around 4000-5000ft from the North and NE.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming cooler and dry for a time then dry and bright in the South with some rain at times across the North.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream's main core is situated well South of the UK near Southern Spain and North Africa in association with a large depression down there. This remains for several more days before it weakens and as far as the UK is concerned a spore of Jet flow energy moves South down over us from the weaker Northern arm towards the weekend. This Southward moving energy lies on the eastern flank of a weakening ridge across the Eastern Atlantic and is eventually superseded by a new lease of energy from the Southern arm which then sets up a more West to East flow across the UK in the second week in association with Low pressure to the North.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows Low pressure down to the South moving slowly ENE later this week with the South seeing a lot of heavy showers or longer outbreaks of rain for a few more days. Then the trend is for winds to back towards the North with cooler and fresher conditions extending South to all areas by the weekend. Winds then continue to back off towards the West and SW by this time next week and this sets up a more traditional Atlantic based cyclonic pattern next week and through to the end of the run with Low pressure in close proximity to the UK with rain and showers at times in average temperatures for all areas.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

NEW GFS PARALLEL RUN The Parallel Run this morning shows Week 1 the same as the Operational with a trend towards cooler and drier weather last to reach the South by the weekend. Then the second half of the run is rather different to the Operational again with the return of more unsettled Atlantic based winds eventually more restricted to the NW where rain and showers continue while the South and East sees plenty of drier and warmer weather for a lot of the time in association with higher pressure across France and later to the West and SW.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=0&runpara=1

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=0&runpara=1

GFS CONTROL RUN The Control Run looks more like the Operational Run rather than the Parallel Run again today in regard to Week 2 with a changeable pattern for all areas with rain at times as Atlantic winds and depressions slowly take hold for most of the UK again through the second week but also mixed in with some drier and brighter spells in average temperatures overall.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The clustering today for day 14 shows a lot of High pressure near the UK in 14 days probably positioned down to the SW of the UK with a strong ridge NE across the UK. There are still some members who prefer something a little more cyclonic themed but these are in a decreasing amount today.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning continues to show the slow transition towards drier and cooler conditions moving down from the North by the weekend as the Low to the South currently takes away the risk of thundery showers or rain by the weekend with a fairly decent if cooler weekend for all looking likely as a weakening ridge moves East towards the UK but there looks as though there is still the risk of the odd shower towards the East coast.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show quite a complex scenario of troughs across Southern Britain for the rest of the working week with thundery showers and outbreaks of rain scattered about here in light winds. Then as winds back towards the North and strengthen by the weekend the troughs are swept away South and SW with a cooler, fresher and drier weekend looking likely for all as a ridge of High pressure pushes in towards the West.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning shows the same thundery Low pressure to the South moving away ENE across Europe later in the week backing the winds towards the North and introducing cooler and fresher conditions in time for the weekend. By that time a High pressure ridge approaches the West and sinks SE to lie to the South of the UK next week backing winds towards the West and SW. Low pressure to the North then brings changeable conditions over the North with some rain at times from passing Atlantic fronts while Southern and SE Britain becomes largely dry, bright and warm in association with High pressure just to the South of the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM has cooler weather on the way by the weekend as the winds back Northerly for a time. A ridge close to the West of the UK over the weekend should bring dry and bright if cooler weather for many before some showers affect the North and East by this time next week as winds back WNW with High pressure a little too far away to the SW to fully affect the UK. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today follows the theme shown by the GFS Parallel Run, their clustering and GEM with the Northerly at the weekend backing SW'ly next week with a NW/SE pattern developing with wind, rain at times and average temperatures affecting the NW while the further SE one travels down over the UK the weather will be drier, brighter and warmer especially in the SE itself where it could be rather warm at times later next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) Last nights 10 day Mean Chart is showing a trend towards a return to a more traditional Low to the North and High to the South pattern with rain at times more likely over the North with drier, brighter and warmer spells more likely across the South and SE.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme is for cooler and drier conditions to move across the UK under a ridge next weekend with a gradual shift now in more runs showing a NW/SE split in weather conditions likely over the second half of the two week period.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.2 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.1 pts to UKMO's 96.3 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.5 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.5 pts to UKMO at 86.8pts and GFS at 83.1 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 61.5 pts to 51.2 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 44.7 pts to 37.0 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS The output today continues to predict a slow shift away from this pattern of Low pressure to the South and Higher pressure to the North currently to the reverse next week. The transition period is over the weekend as the current very showery and humid air across the South of the UK is pushed away South by backing Easterly winds towards the North by the weekend bringing cooler and fresher conditions to all parts but with pleasant enough conditions with sunny spells at times. Then as we move into next week and beyond winds back towards the West and SW with Low pressure becoming more dominant towards the North or NW of the UK with the ridge to the SW extending across France later. This will probably mean after the recent dry and very warm conditions over the North and NW more conventional conditions will develop in these parts with rain and wind at times on Atlantic winds and nearer to average temperatures. In the South conditions will improve. Gone will be the risk of thundery rain and showers and as winds back towards the West and SW a lot of dry and relatively warm weather develops close to High pressure likely over Biscay and France by then. So that is the basic and most popular consensus between the outputs this morning with variations to this theme governed only by more extent of Northern Low pressure with rain for all at times rather than a North/South split. So all in all nothing too concerning on the horizon this morning and it maybe that the South with time become quite pleasant through next week with just very occasional rain whereas the North see more changeable conditions, something that is quite normal for these parts. While no heatwave is shown this morning the colder blip at the weekend looks just that with frost with the exception of Saturday night looking unlikely except in the most prone spots.

Next Update Wednesday May 11th 2016 from 09:00

[Summer Sun]

Longer term the GFS ens shows some promise towards months end for some more settled weather to develop but thats a bit far out yet really for any confidence

 

 

Edited May 10, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Man With Beard]

So confidence growing on a nice period Sunday - Tuesday next week with temperatures rising - probably back into the very low 20s (warmer runs now harder to come by). Midweek onwards though, models now firming up on a typical Atlantic trough centred to the NW, bringing changeable conditions for the south and probably unsettled weather for the north, as the ECM means at D8/D10 show:

  

The GEFS is a bit of a mixture for the end of next week - either changeable as heights battle against troughing to the north - or more unsettled for all as the Atlantic trough makes a more decisive move south. Most options fall somewhere between these two:

  

As Summer Sun points out though, many ens members show improvements once again as we get further out.

[Summer Sun]

GFS is by the far worst for next week

[Summer Sun]

After a northerly flow for a short time UKMO shows high pressure rebuilding fairly quickly so settling down for the first few days of next week and temps recovering towards the high teens and possibly low 20's in one or two spots further south

[wishingforsnow]

GFS once again the devils' advocate the other models have decent conditions for the South but changeable and more unsettled for the North. Onto the end of the month and it looks like the prospect of warmer, more settled weather across the country could be coming our way as with the chart @Summer Sun posted earlier - which would tie in with what the Beeb and Met are thinking at the moment too.

[Summer Sun]

ECM also shows a settled and warmer start to next week by Tuesday we can see low pressure starting to develop in the Atlantic how much of the UK this may affect remains to be seen

[Singularity]

 

The handling of the Atlantic lows in 5-6 days time is causing the models to disagree markedly when going forward. At day 5 we can already see that the GFS 12z (left) has the low south of Greenland deeper and better defined than on the ECM 12z (right).

 

Roll forward 24 hours, and GFS is deepening a low over NE Canada, while the low S. of Greenland has been moved east a little and - critically - shows no sign of interacting with the Canadian low. This is where ECM has a very different take, as it has done for several runs now; the Canadian low begins to interact with the one S. of Greenland. Note also that heights are not rising so much through southern Greenland.

 

By day 7, GFS has the 'escapee' low interacting with cold air moving down from the north and deepening markedly as it heads due east and into the base of the trough centred just north of Scandinavia. ECM has the low interacting with what is a smaller amount of cold air coming down from the north (due to the weaker S. Greenland ridge), but interaction with the trough from Canada has turned it to the northeast, so sparing the UK. The next low does swing in a fair bit closer, however.

 

So we have the difference between a spell of heavy rain and strong winds, followed by a brief cool spell, and largely dry conditions except perhaps for the far northwest on Tuesday followed by some rain for many parts on Wed but without the temps dropping much below average, if at all in the south.

Interestingly enough, both models have a signal by day 10 for low pressure NW of the UK and a relaxation of the Atlantic jet, allowing lows to dig south, with a strong high trying to retrograde from Russia to Scandinavia - but the question is, whether that low drops down west of the UK or not. Either way, temperatures seem likely to depart markedly from average for a time, starting not long past 20th May. ECM looks several days slower than GFS so this is a broad indication only.

[bluearmy]

The extended ens (10/15 days) continue to be sniffing around a west European high anomoly - not so certain the further nw you head re the uk. 

[mb018538]

Still a bit of a split this morning between the euros and the GFS. Euros gradually sweep in a zonal spell, GFS develops a low slap bang over the UK. Still looking drier and a bit warmer the further south and east you are. After things flatten out between days 8-10, any ideas going forward? We've had all manner of options from the GFS extended!

[mountain shadow]

The good thing is the 0z GFS at long range matches the extended ensembles for a warm and dry end to the month. Any unsettled weather does not look prolonged at the moment. 

[Summer Sun]

UKMO again shows things settling down for the start of next week with temps recovering again after a cooler weekend

The low isn't as deep now next week on this mornings ECM

12z for the 18th

00z for the 18th

Longer term we have hints the high could rebuild over the UK

 

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON WEDNESDAY MAY 11TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Low pressure to the South of the UK with associated troughs remain straddled across Southern Britain. Over the next few days a NE and then Northerly flow develops across all areas pushing troughs away South and introducing much cooler and fresher air to all areas.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The UK continues to see the freezing level across the UK at around 8000ft but this will be relatively short-lived from tomorrow as colder uppers lower the level to around 3000-5000ft East to West by and over the weekend.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming cooler and dry for a time then dry and bright in the South with some rain at times across the North.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream's main core is situated well South of the UK near Southern Spain and North Africa in association with a large depression down there. This becomes replaced by a weak Southward moving flow across the UK at the weekend a band of winds which move East by early next week with a more undulating pattern of the flow North and South of the UK in the period from the latter end of next week.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows very changeable conditions across the UK over the next few weeks. The current warm and unsettled conditions across the South are swept away by a chillier Northerly flow over the weekend before milder Atlantic and cyclonic winds are shown to develop next week with some rain at times for all. With time warmer and brighter conditions are shown to affect the South with an extension of this to all areas later as pressure builds strongly across the UK with conditions turning warm again later in the period under High pressure to the NE.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

NEW GFS PARALLEL RUN The Parallel Run this morning shows a very similar sequence of events across the UK over the next few weeks to that shown by the Operational above with the general message that after a cooler and dry weekend more unsettled weather returns next week to be gradually pulled away by rising pressure with the run ending with High pressure across the UK and Scandinavia with all places dry, sunny and potentially very warm for many.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=0&runpara=1

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=0&runpara=1

GFS CONTROL RUN To complete the set from GFS this run follows a similar path to the above although the end part of the run shows slacker pressure across the UK with perhaps some showers about especially in the South with temperatures somewhat lower as a result.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA The clustering today for day 14 shows a lot of High pressure probably close to the SW or west of the UK with a lot of dry and set fair weather as a result. There is though a notable cluster amounting to 20% or so of much more unsettled conditions under low pressure up to the NW and a lesser number with Low pressure to the NE with a cool NW flow. (20%)

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning continues to show a ridge of High pressure building across the British Isles over the weekend with a slack NW flow likely, cooler than of late for all but containing a lot of dry weather with just the odd shower near North and East coasts but with a fair amount of daytime cloud cover with this setup lasting well into next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show the current warm and muggy slack flow across the UK becoming displaced by a chillier Northerly flow by the weekend pushing troughs over the South in the next few days away to the South. With High pressure then shown just to the West over the weekend and start to next week a lot of dry and bright weather is expected with the risk of a shower still across the North and East.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM The theme of GEM this morning is one of rising pressure displacing the warm and humid and unsettled conditions across the South of the UK over the next few days. Pressure then stays largely High to the SW and later South with the cool North or NW flow backing West or SW through next week with Northern and Western areas coming under from from Atlantic troughs while the South and East closest to higher pressure over the near continent sees more in the way of dry and warming weather.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM has cooler weather on the way by the weekend too as the winds back Northerly for a time. A ridge close to the West of the UK over the weekend should bring dry and bright if cooler weather for many and as winds back Westerly next week the theme is for more unsettled conditions across the North and West while fine conditions are more likely to last longer in the South and East although even here some rain is shown to affect these parts a week or so from now. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today shows the continuing theme of the pattern resetting to a more traditional UK type by the start of next week. The current unsettled and muggy Easterly flow across the South is displaced by higher pressure moving in from the West and SW over the weekend with dry and cooler weather feeding down on a weak Northerly flow over the weekend. This then backs westerly early next week and the theme settles to Low pressure to the North and Higher pressure to the South with a strengthening WSW flow affecting all areas by midweek next week with some rain at times possible for all but chiefly for the North and West while the South and SE see drier, brighter and warmer spells too.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) Last nights 10 day Mean Chart is showing a trend towards a return to a more traditional Low to the Northwest and High to the South pattern with rain at times more likely over the North with drier, brighter and warmer spells more likely across the South and SE.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS  As yesterday the main emphasis shown by the models continues to point towards a return to a westerly flow across the UK next week.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.2 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.1 pts to UKMO's 96.3 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.5 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.5 pts to UKMO at 86.8pts and GFS at 83.1 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 61.5 pts to 51.2 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 44.7 pts to 37.0 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS I can be quite brief this morning in my appraisal of the model outputs as they remain mostly focused upon a change from Continental winds blowing across the UK to colder and fresher Northerlies over the weekend and less cool and a traditional Westerly flow next week when the main theme will be for the fine weather that's been over the North lately to be transferred towards the South and SE while the NW sees the return of Westerly winds, bands of cloud and rain. There is some output that shows some rain reaching the South at times too and in the longer term outputs from GFS there looks a good chance that fine weather over the South later next week extends to all areas later in period in the shape of another fine and warm spell under High pressure over or close to the UK. So after the rains of today and perhaps tomorrow for many in the South a protracted dry and set fair period looks likely for the South for 5 days at least and it maybe that after the risk of some rain later next week for many the UK as a whole could return to some more High pressure based weather with temperatures on the rise again by the last week of May further endorsed by the Met office updates of late.

Next Update Thursday May 12th 2016 from 09:00

[Paul]

It's GFS upgrade day today - from the 12z it'll be onto what is currently the para version with numerous updates and improvements. 

[Singularity]

Interesting that although ECM has bowed down to GFS with respect to the low from S. of Greenland escaping interaction with the one leaving Canada, that low drops SSE instead of pushing east as GFS prefers to go with. The temperatures hold up a lot better, and it seems to help the Azores High to build in afterward.

It really does seem to boil down to GFS having a stronger jet stream for days 5-10 (120-240 hours range).

Given that the Arctic is looking considerably warmer than usual in the near future, it would not surprise me to see the jet stream taking on the more meridional behaviour of ECM's solution, even at this time of year (a typically more westerly period).

 

Longer term, GFS continues to suggest a marked reduction in jet stream strength, and still with substantial height rises E and NE of the UK. It seems that whatever the Met Office are seeing, GFS is seeing something similar - though with easterlies tending to be favoured over westerlies.

This year is displaying an unusual partiality to easterlies across southern Britain. I expect it's no coincidence that the polar vortex break up in March was the earliest on record, and among the most dramatic.

It will be interesting to see if the 'heat pile-up' scenario across Europe emerges by the end of the month; a low west of Europe acting as a blockade to warm air moving across from the E/SE. The recent and near-term weather patterns are actually making for a slow start for most of the continent, with warm air focused at the higher latitudes. It takes until the 10-14 day period for the GFS based anomaly charts to show a transition to warmer than average conditions down there. Alarmingly, this happens while the higher latitudes continue to roast (relatively speaking).

 

Further afield, the ice in the Pacific side of the Arctic looks to be in a lot of trouble, but that's a topic for another thread - and one being well discussed of late!

[wishingforsnow]

3 hours ago, Singularity said:

Interesting that although ECM has bowed down to GFS with respect to the low from S. of Greenland escaping interaction with the one leaving Canada, that low drops SSE instead of pushing east as GFS prefers to go with. The temperatures hold up a lot better, and it seems to help the Azores High to build in afterward.

It really does seem to boil down to GFS having a stronger jet stream for days 5-10 (120-240 hours range).

Given that the Arctic is looking considerably warmer than usual in the near future, it would not surprise me to see the jet stream taking on the more meridional behaviour of ECM's solution, even at this time of year (a typically more westerly period).

 

Longer term, GFS continues to suggest a marked reduction in jet stream strength, and still with substantial height rises E and NE of the UK. It seems that whatever the Met Office are seeing, GFS is seeing something similar - though with easterlies tending to be favoured over westerlies.

This year is displaying an unusual partiality to easterlies across southern Britain. I expect it's no coincidence that the polar vortex break up in March was the earliest on record, and among the most dramatic.

It will be interesting to see if the 'heat pile-up' scenario across Europe emerges by the end of the month; a low west of Europe acting as a blockade to warm air moving across from the E/SE. The recent and near-term weather patterns are actually making for a slow start for most of the continent, with warm air focused at the higher latitudes. It takes until the 10-14 day period for the GFS based anomaly charts to show a transition to warmer than average conditions down there. Alarmingly, this happens while the higher latitudes continue to roast (relatively speaking).

 

Further afield, the ice in the Pacific side of the Arctic looks to be in a lot of trouble, but that's a topic for another thread - and one being well discussed of late!

 

A trend for Easterlies over Britain can only be a good thing for the upcoming summer taking into account expected heat build up over Continental Europe - as opposed to last summer which was mostly dominated by Northerlies whilst Europe baked in warm/hot temperatures.

Looking further ahead, it's good to see a trend for high pressure and warmer temperatures for the UK being re established towards the middle and end of May, with the lows in the Atlantic being mostly kept at bay - ideal conditions as we enter the summer

[Summer Sun]

GFS 12z is now running with the update

http://translate.google.co.uk/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.meteociel.fr%2Fmodeles%2Fgfse_cartes.php&act=url

[Summer Sun]

The first run from the updated GFS and the high is having more of an influence

12z

06z

Edited May 11, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Scorcher]

That's a very nice progression from the GFS 12Z with settled conditions predominating after the weekend. The high eventually drifts to a more favourable position for warmth towards the end of the run. It certainly looks like a very sustainable setup if that run comes off.

[Summer Sun]

What a difference a few hours makes...

                         12z                                                                          06z

Big chances for Spain and Portugal as well the 850's have gone from around +20 to +8 & +12

Edited May 11, 2016 by Summer Sun

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

What a difference a few hours makes...

                         12z                                                                          06z

we wish, but that's deepest FI, normal surely from one run to next shows opposite weather?

[Summer Sun]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

we wish, but that's deepest FI, normal surely from one run to next shows opposite weather?

Absolutely, but the biggest changes start mid next week as I've highlighted a few posts up I await the ens with great interest to see what support this run has

Edited May 11, 2016 by Summer Sun