Jump to content
phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

Recommended Posts

Enjoy the warmth Gang:D...the Ecm 12z shows the warm spell lasting until and including next Friday across the south before a possible change to much cooler Northerly winds but then by T+240 hours the Azores high looks like building in but within the reliable timeframe we will have a summery spell, especially tomorrow and early next week with temps as high as the mid 20's celsius across the southern half of the uk along with plenty of sunshine and isolated thunderstorms. The week ahead indicates warm and humid conditions with sunny spells and a risk of thundery outbreaks for central and especially southern UK whereas it looks fine and warm for northern UK for a change but let's just make the most of this first summery spell with the hope its just an appetizer for plenty of hot and sunny weather during the summer!:)

24_mslp850uk.png

24_mslp850.png

48_mslp850uk.png

48_mslp850.png

72_mslp850uk.png

96_mslp850.png

96_mslp850uk.png

120_mslp850.png

120_mslp850uk.png

144_mslp850.png

144_mslp850uk.png

168_mslp850uk.png

192_mslp850uk.png

240_mslp850uk.png

240_mslp500.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well still a forecast return to cooler conditions by the end of the coming week, before then some real warmth and interestingly the locations will vary with many areas away from the east coast enjoying the late Spring warmth.

Tomorrow, it looks like London, the Midlands and NW England will be the warmest with 25/26C possible quite widely if we get enough sunshine.

nmmuk-0-25-0.png?07-19

Monday looks a little cooler for England and Wales but the mid twenties is still possible in western Scotland and again NW England.

nmmuk-0-51-0.png?07-19

Southern England turns cooler mostly due to bands of rain or showers moving erratically northwards.

It should remain warm until midweek before cooler air moves south, probably reaching the south sometime during Friday.

Charts for Friday

gfs-0-144.png?12   UW144-21.GIF?07-19   ECM1-144.GIF?07-0

The ECM again looks slower but all agree on conditions turning rather cold by the weekend.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Well still a forecast return to cooler conditions by the end of the coming week, before then some real warmth and interestingly the locations will vary with many areas away from the east coast enjoying the late Spring warmth.

Tomorrow, it looks like London, the Midlands and NW England will be the warmest with 25/26C possible quite widely if we get enough sunshine.

nmmuk-0-25-0.png?07-19

Monday looks a little cooler for England and Wales but the mid twenties is still possible in western Scotland and again NW England.

nmmuk-0-51-0.png?07-19

Southern England turns cooler mostly due to bands of rain or showers moving erratically northwards.

It should remain warm until midweek before cooler air moves south, probably reaching the south sometime during Friday.

Charts for Friday

gfs-0-144.png?12   UW144-21.GIF?07-19   ECM1-144.GIF?07-0

The ECM again looks slower but all agree on conditions turning rather cold by the weekend.

Good to see you on here again CS

Well the Scandi trough was the outlier solution a couple of days ago, and now it's the form horse.

Recent summers have often seen low pressure in that location a little further NE by T0 - I'm tempted to expect the same this time, which would lead to more of a glancing brush on the cooler conditions for the east, but something fairly decent for the west, especially SW. By next Sunday, something like 10C on the east coast and Scotland, 15C for central areas and 17C or 18C for southern facing coasts, particularly in the SW. Mainly dry for all. Warming up a little into the second week.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Good to see you on here again CS

Well the Scandi trough was the outlier solution a couple of days ago, and now it's the form horse.

Recent summers have often seen low pressure in that location a little further NE by T0 - I'm tempted to expect the same this time, which would lead to more of a glancing brush on the cooler conditions for the east, but something fairly decent for the west, especially SW. By next Sunday, something like 10C on the east coast and Scotland, 15C for central areas and 17C or 18C for southern facing coasts, particularly in the SW. Mainly dry for all. Warming up a little into the second week.

If anything the N'ly could end up being even deeper seated. With the atmosphere seemingly fully supportive of a meridional jet, we could see N heights gain more of a foothold post end of the week. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Met Office and models at T +240 are currently suggesting a warm up again after the Northerly so hopefully the Northerly doesn't last for more than a week or that it won't amount to much. 7 days is a timeframe where weather conditions are still open to change - I'm hoping it won't be as cold as what is currently being made out. BBC weather showing 17c for my location and 6 degrees at night for the supposed 'cool down' at the end of next week - only dropping by a few degrees so not that much of a difference although I suspect there will be more of a chill in the air.

Edited by wishingforsnow

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The 6-10 anomaly charts suggest a pattern much as they did prior to the last cold outbreak. However the contours  over the UK originate from several degrees further south over North America and the heights being suggested for southern UK are about 10DM higher, so although a 6-8 day colder outlook is pretty certain it will not be as cold as last time. The 8-14 NOAA suggests no marked warm up though with the flow a touch north of west in its average picture for that period.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sunday's weather on the Gfs 18z is what I love about summer, very warm and humid with temps around the mid 20's celsius and lots of strong sunshine triggering isolated thunderstorms. I hope its a sign of what we can look forward to when the meteorological summer begins in just over three weeks time.:)

ukmaxtemp.png

ukprec.png

ukstormrisk.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

The 6-10 anomaly charts suggest a pattern much as they did prior to the last cold outbreak. However the contours  over the UK originate from several degrees further south over North America and the heights being suggested for southern UK are about 10DM higher, so although a 6-8 day colder outlook is pretty certain it will not be as cold as last time. The 8-14 NOAA suggests no marked warm up though with the flow a touch north of west in its average picture for that period.

NOAA anomalies do suggest a N/W flow from 8-14 day period. Though it looks colder than it currently is during this warm spell - I agree that I don't think it's going to get as cold as models such as GFS are showing; as Winter has just taught us in our fruitless search for severe cold and snow - very frequently extreme conditions shown by the models do not come off exactly as what is shown. More importantly, it's looking quite dry in the South at least despite it getting cooler. I think that taking into account similar years weatherwise and the fact that nature has to rebalance itself, it wouldn't surprise me if we are entering a cluster of predominately dry months considering the overly wet Winter we have just endured, and this also started to shown in late Spring-early Summer 2014. 

Also the NOAA anomalies do change frequently so hopefully it will start to show in the coming weeks another switch back to warmer conditions for late May into June as the Met is hinting at in it's extended outlook. I feel like this would touch upon what Tamara said earlier about a rinse and repeat pattern throughout Spring is what we are seeing now - hopefully as we move into Summer we will see longer/more frequent periods of combined high pressure and warmer weather. 

Edited by wishingforsnow
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Due to the building heat to the south clashing with remnant cold in the Arctic, May tends to fight for a westerly pattern more than the other two months of Spring.

I believe the ECM 12z is a reflection of this in that it toppled the mid-Atlantic ridge quite quickly.

So a chance of escaping a notable cool spell - but this could just be for an unsettled run of days, as blocking can still take hold across Greenland or thereabouts and drive the Atlantic polar jet well south of the usual track.

Worst case scenario is a full hot from the northerly and then lows running into the UK, as the 00z and 06z GFS illustrated.

Best case sees the northerly quickly swept aside and then the Azores High managing to nose in from the southwest. It's a long shot but ECM has had a surprisingly good go at it this evening.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The GFS in my eyes is way way over the top with this northerly. It's been chopping and changing for the last few days now.

What I think the outcome will be based in the overnight runs and looking at the models is a middle ground between the Ecm and GFS. To be honest away from the tops of the Scottish mountains and at night far northern parts I see no real threat from cold.

Note, it's now May and the sunshine is getting stronger and stronger and stronger so this too will have an impact on surface temps that the models may not pick up on.

Either way, it's a weak affair and looking at it could be flirt with cold air before we pull back the warmer air once more.

Edited by Surrey
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This cooler spell is looking nothing like the previous cold spell we had the other week thankfully- areas to the north of us have warmed up significantly over the past week or so and the uppers don't look nearly as cool for most of us. In the meantime let's enjoy this fantastic summery spell.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The GFS this morning shows next weekends Northerly re-establish into the following week, With -6/-7 uppers shown over the UK by the weekend. As Scorcher/J.H points out this spell wont be 'as' potent as the last..

a.pngb.pngc.png

Edited by Polar Maritime
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON SUNDAY MAY 8TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Low pressure over Spain and later France will push troughs up across Southern Britain over the coming days in a warm and moist Easterly flow. The North will be largely set fair in the same Easterly flow though here the air will be more stable than in areas further South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND/OR FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The UK continues to see the freezing level across the UK range between 8000-10000ft over the following three or four days and these levels will extend to the far NW too today where values have been rather lower than elsewhere across the UK recently.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rather warm with thundery showers in the South. Perhaps rather cooler later.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream's main core is situated well South of the UK near Southern Spain and North Africa in association with a large depression down there. This remains for much of this before a rise in pressure over the Eastern Atlantic pushes a thread of the flow South across the UK in a Northerly flow. Then late in the period a rather complex Jet stream pattern emerges with the main energy still wanting to lie to the South of the UK rather than elsewhere.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows Low pressure down to the South and later to the SE of the UK this week with Easterly winds and showery weather for many Southern areas with rather warm and in places humid conditions prevailing. In the North it will stay largely dry and this will extend to Western areas further South towards next weekend as the Low to the South moves East and winds back to a cooler Northerly though with further heavy showers across Southern and later Eastern areas of the UK. Then through the second week details look elusive but in essence the UK looks to remain close to showery Low pressure with some bright and sunny intervals in between but with temperatures more likely to have returned to normal values by then at the same time as being less humid as winds back more to a Westerly at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

NEW GFS PARALLEL RUN Using the GFS Operational Run above as a template for the coming two weeks the GFS Parallel Run today differs in that higher pressure is shown to extend East into the UK next weekend with a fine and bright spell lasting for several days and perhaps longer across the South before a return to unsettled and possibly windy conditions spreads down across all areas later, this time from the NW with temperatures after a warm start reverting to nearer to average values.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=0&runpara=1

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=0&runpara=1

GFS CONTROL RUN This run follows closer to the Operational rather than the Parallel Run through the phase surrounding next weekend and the start of the second week with continues showery conditions in winds from a cooler Northerly source. However, late in the period this run shows warm and sunny conditions developing across England and Wales as the Azores High extends NE into Southern Britain with any wind and rain held across the far NW.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The clustering today for day 14 remains distinctly useless as a tool into what conditions will be like over the UK in two weeks time with an equal split of both Low and High pressure scenarios on offer meaning everything from potentially dry and sunny weather to cool and showery conditions in a Northerly flow.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows the thundery Low pressure area currently over Spain dominant across Southern and later Eastern areas of the UK throughout this coming week as it slowly trundles it's way East to lie over SE Europe by next weekend with contrasting High pressure centred up to the NW of the British Isles by then resulting in a fall off in temperatures under  the Northerly or NE'ly aspect to the flow by then with many North-western areas of the UK having an entirely dry and warm week while the South and East see further heavy showers at times right out to and probably including next weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show quite a complex scenario revolving around the movement of Low pressure over Spain and it's effects on the UK. The basic message is for the NW to see the best conditions with fronts moving into the South at times with some heavy and thundery rain in humid conditions until later in the week when an attack of fronts from the North looks like reducing temperatures to average with the risk of further showers at times in winds becoming more from the North by next weekend lowering the humidity values.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning shows slow but subtle changes in it's patterning over the next week to 10 days as the current warm and humid SE flow backs away towards the NE and later North with the showery conditions across the South and East too later this week breaking down under High pressure inching in from the West by next weekend with fine and less warm conditions for all for several days before High pressure to the WSW sets up a WNW flow across the UK with rather more unsettled conditions affecting the North and NE late in the run with the SW seeing the driest and warmest conditions by then.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM today also shows the slow decline in conditions from the South affecting the UK as winds back more towards the NE and North through the coming week. However, thundery showers will affect many Southern and Eastern areas for a good few days yet and it will feel warm in any sunshine. Then by next weekend a cooler North flow and showers transferring towards the East will spell a slow change to a more Atlantic based west or NW pattern by the start of the second week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today also shows High pressure inching in from the West next weekend and into the second week but it never quite makes it maintaining something of a Northerly drift down across the UK with perhaps a few showers still in the East and more importantly cleaning up the air into a cooler fresher feel. As we approach the end of the run it shows more instability being injected into the air across the UK with showers returning to all this time from the NW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN (12z) Last nights 10 day Mean Chart has backed a ridge West from earlier versions of this chart which leads me to believe that any advancement of High pressure into the UK from the West from next weekend will be slow, painstaking or at worst non-existent...more runs needed.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme remains for a warm and humid period of weather across the UK before a gradual reduction in both temperatures and showers look likely later though conditions beyond next weekend still come with low confidence.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.4 pts and GFS at 99.2 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.1 pts to UKMO's 96.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.5 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 88.3 pts to UKMO at 86.5pts and GFS at 83.2 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 61.2 pts to 51.3 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM has the lead from GFS with a score of 44.5 pts to 36.2 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS Although the overall patterning of the weather over the next week looks pretty much set in stone the method and in particular local detail that gets us out of this pattern for the period surrounding next weekend and beyond remains very uncertain. So step by step what we have now is Low pressure down over Spain and Portugal which incidentally is giving some pretty inclement May weather down there and some of this is heading up towards Southern Britain to affect these areas between tomorrow and Wednesday. The warm and humid feed of air surrounding this will affect much of the UK but the North looks like getting away with a largely dry spell over the coming 3-4 days with the highest temperatures to the NW. Then as the week progresses the trend will be for winds to back away from the SE to more of a NEy feed by the end of the working week lowering both temperature and humidity values somewhat while maintaining some showery weather to include eastern areas too by that time. It's from then that the confusion between the models start as colder air will be moving South across Scandinavia and with High pressure to the West and NW of the UK this could be driven our way with the models in total disarray about how much of that cold and showery air will affect conditions over the UK. Some output suggests not much while others maintain a cooler Northerly drift with further showers eventually culminating in further unsettled weather fed down from the NW with rain and showers at times to end the forecast period. However, this is not the only option with other output suggesting High pressure ridging towards the South and setting up more of a NW/SE split at least for a time with the SE half of the UK becoming warm and dry with rain and wind towards the NW. It will be interesting to see how the models handle the changes through the coming week as all options shown look to me totally feasible. However, to end with the more definitive part of the forecast it looks a showery week to come especially across the South and East where they could be heavy and thundery at times. The best weather looks to be towards the NW this week and after a very warm start for some the conditions look set to turn rather cooler by next weekend with temperatures closer to the seasonal average at the same time as feeling less humid.

Next Update Monday May 9th 2016 from 09:00 

Edited by Gibby
  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Could well be that the negative AAM bias is responsible for the stronger and more sustained build of heights to the W/NW in recent GFS runs when compared to ECM.

Even if we did get such a potent northerly, maximums in the low teens do seem a bit over the top. GFS assumes a rapid clouding over each day, but late April demonstrated that such does not have to be the case - though with stronger sun now, fill-in would happen faster if the capping inversion was too strong to be broken by updrafts.

Anyway, here's hoping ECM is right to peruse the toppling ridge scenario. We still have to deal with residual low heights to the E/SE but it's not too chilly for most, particularly the further west you are.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

At this stage the northerly flow for next weekend won't be anywhere near as cold as the last one (the beeb were suggesting temps around average last night)

Recm1442.gifRecm1682.gifRecm1922.gifRecm2162.gifRecm2402.gif

The last northerly we had lots of blocking

ECH1-0.GIF?12

This time we don't at this stage

ECH1-144.GIF?08-12

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Today is the high point of this warm spell and the Gfs 00z shows mid 20's celsius quite widely across England and Wales with lots of sunshine but a risk of isolated thunderstorms developing..enjoy it guys and here's to many more days like today during the next 4 or 5 months!:drinks:

h850t850eu.png

ukmaxtemp.png

ukstormrisk.png

ukprec.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Gfs 6z op shows temperatures taking quite a nose dive next weekend with a much cooler Northerly airflow although it becomes mainly dry with sunny spells and just the odd light shower brushing east coastal areas but cold enough inland briefly for overnight frosts, however, the northerly is soon cut off by high pressure building in from the sw / w and temperatures rise to pleasantly warm levels during the following week. In the meantime, enjoy the current warmth which today is at it's peak with mid 20's celsius although it stays on the warm side for most of the week ahead with temps into the high teens / low twenties celsius, some rain around during the week ahead, mainly across southern UK, heavy and thundery in places but largely fine further north but it does look like a change from the north by next Fri / Sat.:)

ukmintemp.png

h500slp.png

h500slp (1).png

h500slp (2).png

h500slp (3).png

ukmaxtemp.png

ukmaxtemp (1).png

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As we reach the peak of this current warm spell, the good news is there are still encouraging signals for generally settled and warmer weather from around the end of May and into June so we could potentially be looking at a very good start to the meteorological summer. In the meantime, it looks like staying on the warm side for most of the week ahead except when it's raining for any length of time but then a change to much cooler conditions from the north by next weekend with a risk of slight frosts before high pressure builds in which is what the Gfs 6z shows. Beyond that, it appears that a typical NW / SE split will develop with most of the changeable / unsettled weather across the northwest of the uk with the southeast seeing the best of the temperatures, sunshine and dry weather...and then a good start to summer for most if not all of the uk..hopefully!:D

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/06_105_ukcape.png?cb=643

Eye-widening GFS 06z for Thursday, as the cooler air filtering down from the north overruns the warm surface air and creates a very unstable environment. With a bit of wind shear and sufficient moisture you'd have supercell potential! Not had a chance to check those parameters yet (using mobile).

Good to see the weekend pattern adjusted east and the Atlantic ridge  making a good effort to control our weather thereafter. Hope springs eternal!

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We may avoid the worst this time from the northerly winds with high pressure much closer by cooler next weekend yes but probs around average

UW120-21.GIF?08-18UW144-21.GIF?08-18

GFS has high pressure coming back in as early as the 14th

gfs-0-120.png?12gfs-0-144.png?12gfs-0-168.png?12gfs-0-192.png?12

Edited by Summer Sun

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Phew - a reconfiguration of the Atlantic setup by GFS since the 00z, with the 06z adding in a weak low over Greenland for Saturday, which is now stronger on the 12z.

This topples the mid-Atlantic ridge over toward the UK. Could it be that the seasonal thermal gradient increase will indeed save us as I mused yesterday? That was just a hypothesis but, it appears (note the lack of certainty - I've seen too many model flips to behave otherwise), a well founded one. 

Now it's time to wonder whether GFS is being overly optimistic with the influence from the toppling ridge. The ECM 00z was, after all, more tentative with that feature - which reminds me, if we do see the toppling scenario, it'll be kudos to that model for spotting the way forward a couple of days ahead of GFS.

12_195_mslp500.png?cb=701

It's a good position to be in as the Atlantic westerlies kick back into gear a bit - but it's far from a raging jet scenario and so trough disruption is likely, as the 06z GFS advertised prominently with the shallow slider/trough extension on a NW-SE alignment through the UK later in week 2.

12_222_mslp500.png?cb=701 12_222_uk2mtmp.png?cb=701

The disruption need not affect the UK directly, though, and it looks like the 12z GFS may demonstrate that, with the Atlantic getting walled off and the shallow remains of the continental trough from this coming week (taking an absolute age to warm out!) dictating the degree of instability across the UK - in this case enough for some heavy showers. Temps doing alright for most parts, but cool for eastern coasts - but it's really not worth worrying about these details at such range. The 06z had a gentle northerly at this time, max temps nearing 20*C in the far south.

For the time being, let's just say it's a far better outlook for most than we were facing from GFS just two runs ago! :good:

 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Gfs 12z op shows a nice ridge of high pressure building in from the Atlantic during next weekend so the Northerly on saturday is quickly cut off as pressure rises from the west but a chilly day on saturday and a widespread slight frost as sunday dawns but then temps recover back to the seasonal average with good sunny spells and light winds although the risk of showers increases during week 2...in the meantime, it will stay on the warm side throughout the working week before the cooler air spreads south...then I'm looking for the next summery spell!:)

h500slp.png

ukmintemp.png

h500slp (1).png

ukmaxtemp.png

h500slp (2).png

ukmaxtemp (1).png

ukprec.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The ukmo 12z shows high pressure poised to push eastwards across the UK post T+144 hours and the Gem 12z also indicates a more settled few days into the start of week 2 with temperatures recovering after the unseasonably chilly looking Saturday, actually, apart from an odd shower, it looks largely dry with sunny spells at the end of the week ahead.:)

Rukm1441.gif

Rgem1681.gif

Rgem1921.gif

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Love the fact the models are shunting everything further east in terms of northerly airflow for next weekend with the UKMO and ECM quickly pushing the high pressure over the UK come Sunday. 

Anyway even if a weak northerly did appear - it's May and the Sun would quickly modify the air source and it would feel pleasant especially in the south. 

Win win for me either way really as even a northerly aiflow brings sunny weather down here and at this time of year will feel nothing like it would in February.  I'm  just happy the models do not show Atlantic low pressure dominance in the reliable.. 

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ECM following the rest high pressure very close by turning cooler - well back closer to the seasonal average - but plenty of dry weather around and with the high so close it wont take much for it to return taking the cooler winds into mainland Europe

ECM1-144.GIF?08-0

And by Sunday the high is coming back

ECM1-168.GIF?08-0

The northerly looks just a blip at this stage

Edited by Summer Sun
  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×