Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[knocker]

The ecm does have some showery activity effecting the south on Saturday but it soon scoots away east leaving a mainly dry day before a more organised band tracks north on Sunday which amalgamates with the depression to the west which tracks ENE bringing some quite wet weather to the north.

Some reasonable temps in the usual area Sunday but Monday quite cool.

[Summer Sun]

Uncertainties this morning even at t144

[Gordon Webb]

looks like today is the last of the dry and very warm days for most not that the next few will be a complete washout heat does remain in the far SE over next days although more typical for rest of UK

[Guest]

47 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

looks like today is the last of the dry and very warm days for most not that the next few will be a complete washout heat does remain in the far SE over next days although more typical for rest of UK

I wouldn't say complete washout. Friday looks a nice day for most away from the NW, with some sun and heavy showers on Saturday clearing to fresher conditions on Sunday with showers.

[Gordon Webb]

8 minutes ago, Llangollen said:

I wouldn't say complete washout. Friday looks a nice day for most away from the NW, with some sun and heavy showers on Saturday clearing to fresher conditions on Sunday with showers.

my post actually says that the next few won't be a complete washout at least that's what I meant to say unless I've phrased it incorrectly

[coldcomfort]

Any Saturday heat even in the SE now looks to be on very shaky ground indeed, in fact average to slightly above looks the call there, with the vast majority of the UK looking cool, even very cool under the rain.

Thereafter with LP sat between Scotland and Iceland the final week of the month looks distinctly uninspiring, at least according to GFS, so we now look towards the upcoming hurricane/tropical storm season to shake things up and hopefully offer all of us some decent spells during the first half of Sept.

Edited August 24, 2016 by coldcomfort

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Gordon Webb said:

my post actually says that the next few won't be a complete washout at least that's what I meant to say unless I've phrased it incorrectly

No, re-reading it back I can see it was me that misread your post. Apologies  

[Matthew.]

Much nicer feel as the cold front pushes through as one sitting on the other side of the fence. Marked temperature differences ahead of it Edit for G.W- Northern England, quite a diagonal on the front though!

Edited August 24, 2016 by Matthew Wilson

[Mucka]

The long range ECM and GFS looking at a possibly stormy early September but of course track of these depressions in hurricane season can change greatly.

[Summer Sun]

6 minutes ago, Mucka said:

The long range ECM and GFS looking at a possibly stormy early September but of course track of these depressions in hurricane season can change greatly.

 

Yep by the time it reaches the UK its not get much left

[Gordon Webb]

42 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Much nicer feel as the cold front pushes through as one sitting on the other side of the fence. Marked temperature differences ahead of it

Going to ask if this is the Marton in Warwickshire , if so then the cold front has passed through me as well since I'm only 16 miles north from you

[Summer Sun]

1 hour ago, Gordon Webb said:

Going to ask if this is the Marton in Warwickshire , if so then the cold front has passed through me as well since I'm only 16 miles north from you

I believe it's Marton near Middlesbrough

[Gordon Webb]

28 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

I believe it's Marton near Middlesbrough

yep turns out there's more than one , why I'm surprise I don't know

[Summer Sun]

It's looking likely now we'll have an ex-hurricane coming across the Atlantic next week what sort of impact it could have on the UK won't be known for some days yet

GFS

GEM

Edited August 24, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Captain Shortwave]

I guess there should be some comment about next week.

      

Looks like a drier type of NW/SE split with near normal conditions in the north and west in terms of temperatures and rainfall, the south east looks potentially bone dry after the rain this coming weekend and at times very warm with some decent warm sectors between the weather systems. Wednesday stands out as being the high point of the week with the Azores high breaking off and drifting to our east setting up a south to south west flow.

More comment on the bank holiday weekend coming up when the ECM delivers enough of its run.

Edited August 24, 2016 by Captain Shortwave

[Summer Sun]

Not to be taken seriously at this range even more so with an ex-hurricane in the mix

Tonight's GFS ensembles show the potential for some further very warm to hot temps as we move through early September

[Man With Beard]

Bit of a pattern developing - fine warm weeks and dodgy weekends. Here's Tuesday next week - pretty good again

but if that hurricane and low to the north combine next Friday ...

... there could be carnage here at the weekend

[Summer Sun]

ECM shows high pressure rebuilding for next week plenty of dry weather for the south but some rain at times for the north

The ex-hurricane later next week is likely to cause quite a few changes from the models over the coming day's until its track is nailed what is fairly certain is it will remain warm for the foreseeable future 

Edited August 24, 2016 by Summer Sun

[knocker]

The ecm has the thundery area tracking north into the south west Saturday morning and quickly moves it ENE to be in the North Sea by Sunday The low to the west has been absorbed into this general area of low pressure and also moves east over Sunday bringing with it showery conditions. By Monday this is clear and a transient ridge builds bringing a dry Monday to most before the next system arrives tracking NE bringing more wet weather to Scotland with the ridge hanging on in the south.

Sidney is eagerly awaiting the EPS having become interested in Gaston

[Nouska]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

The ecm has the thundery area tracking north into the south west Saturday morning and quickly moves it ENE to be in the North Sea by Sunday The low to the west has been absorbed into this general area of low pressure and also moves east over Sunday bringing with it showery conditions. By Monday this is clear and a transient ridge builds bringing a dry Monday to most before the next system arrives tracking NE bringing more wet weather to Scotland with the ridge hanging on in the south.

Sidney is eagerly awaiting the EPS having become interested in Gaston

Gaston is underperforming and the girl who is maybe going to be named Hermine is also dithering about. Sydney can safely go back to tending his nuts.

Have to admit, I got quite excited too with the GFS 06Z idea of bringing the remnants in down here. A nice ex-tropical downour would be just the ticket for very parched ground.

 

 

Edited August 24, 2016 by Nouska

[Summer Sun]

The deep low which could come into play with our weather one way or another later next week is storm Gaston

[phil nw.]

Regarding next week the height anomalies from the 12z ens runs from both GFS and ECM show an improvement compared to a couple of days ago.

The possible Scandinavian troughing now held at bay with the Azoes/Continental heights remaining much closer to the south of the UK.

Looking like a decent start to Autumn for many away from the north west corner where there will some affect from the Atlantic at times.Not bad though compared to what looked like a more unsettled turn from earlier ens outputs.Let;s see if this trend continues always with an eye of course on any tropical storm developments that may change things somewhat.

[knocker]

Today

A mainly dry day apart from the north with thr rain there clearing away to the east. High temps still concentrated in the East Anglia area although a little down on yesterday. Tomorrow a fine dry day for most.

On the face of it the GFS this morning is not too bad for the next week. The thundery rain effecting the south on Saturday quickly clears east leaving the UK in a slack area of high pressure until the next systems start arriving on Wednesday. Might be a few showers initially but generally dry and quite warm in the sunny periods although temps generally around average.

[Matthew.]

• Monday onwards looks like more settled conditions prevailing to end August nicely for more of the UK After this will Gaston muscle in for September?

[knocker]

The ecm makes rather more of the thundery outbreaks on Saturday which could effect much of the southern half of England before moving east  Sunday still in the circulation of the low so showery. Then brif ridging until the next system swings in on Tuesday  Subsequent to this it rapidly builds HP to the NE, connected to the Azores which manages to keep more systems tracking from the west at bay.