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Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016


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Posted
  • Location: Royston, Herts 76m asl
  • Location: Royston, Herts 76m asl
13 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Not to be taken seriously at this range even more so with an ex-hurricane in the mix

Tonight's GFS ensembles show the potential for some further very warm to hot temps as we move through early September

gefsens850London0.pnggefstmp2mmaxLondon.png

Gavin

As you probably know, although we can get unsettled weather from ex-hurricanes is as is (more?) often the case, they take a different track or stall, they can help fine weather be maintained in the UK, sometimes by pumping up heat from the south,

But you're right to say that they do promote uncertainty.

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Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton
36 minutes ago, Weather Boy said:

Gavin

As you probably know, although we can get unsettled weather from ex-hurricanes is as is (more?) often the case, they take a different track or stall, they can help fine weather be maintained in the UK, sometimes by pumping up heat from the south,

But you're right to say that they do promote uncertainty.

Yes that reminds me of what Knocker said a while back about it being where the high and low pressure areas reside which could mean they travel NW of the U.K on the Jetstream if an anticyclone positioned itself blocking cyclones. 

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Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.

A new tool in the box nowadays.....

ed13-0399-06a.jpg

I think it is currently flying a mission round Gaston.

http://www.northropgrumman.com/Capabilities/NASAGlobalHawk/Documents/pageDocuments/NASA_GH_EyesSkyArticleNov.PDF

Just to add that the Global Hawk mission found Gaston to already be hurricane strength and the data should be ingested in the next model runs.

000
WTNT62 KNHC 250415
TCUAT2

HURRICANE GASTON TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016
1215 AM AST THU AUG 25 2016

...GASTON BECOMES THE THIRD HURRICANE OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON...

Dropsonde data from a NASA/NOAA Global Hawk mission indicate that
Gaston has strengthened to a hurricane. The maximum winds are
estimated to be 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts.

 

Edited by Nouska
Additional info.
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Well the bank holiday weekend is coming up so, how is the weather looking, there have been a lot of twists and turns but as we approach the reliable timeframe for all three days lets have a looks at what we should expect.

Saturday

gfs-0-48.png?12   51-574UK.GIF?25-12     51-582UK.GIF?25-12

 

It isn't looking like a bad day anywhere with showers across Scotland/Northern Ireland and northern England, there is the risk of showers or thunderstorms being imported from France later in the day, the highest risk being in the south east. Plenty of sunny spells otherwise with a light wind between the south and the east. Temperatures in the high teens in the north, mid twenties in the south.

 

Sunday

gfs-0-72.png?12   75-574UK.GIF?25-12   75-582UK.GIF?25-12

Showers in the south and also across northern and western areas. Temperatures looks respectable again with the high teens in the north, low to mid twenties in the south in the best of the sunshine.

 

Monday

gfs-0-96.png?12   102-574UK.GIF?25-12   102-582UK.GIF?25-12

A weak ridge builds across the country on Monday, a mix of sunshine and showers with coastal areas being the best places to be, rain will push into Northern Ireland and western Scotland later. Temperatures reaching the low twenties widely, possibly the mid twenties in the south.

Overall the bank holiday weekend sums up our summer to be honest, not too bad.

Next week holds promise for the south, more changeable in the north with the jetstream on a ENE trajectory and blowing across the north of the UK.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

With any luck, ex-Gaston will throw a strong ridge N or NE across the UK, via WAA, if it follows the usual path NE towards the gap between Iceland and Scotland ... dependent on how quickly its absorbed and keeps or loses its intensity as merges with the upper westerlies/Atlantic trough.

But as John says, expect some model wobbles on the way as they try to get to grips with the energy it will pump into the atmosphere and how this will affect the upper pattern over the Atlantic.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Well having spent the week a good 100 miles east of the GFS with the pattern (and generally wrong), the Euro4 is now about 200 miles west for Saturday. Rain for Cotswolds rather than the Downs!

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2016/08/25/basis12/ukuk/prec/16082712_2512.gif16082712_2512.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Today

A fine sunny day for most, some showers in northern Scotland, albeit temps a little cooler than of late. The usual regional variation regarding temperature.

accumprecip_d02_49.pngtemperature_d02_32.png

Not really much to whitter about this morning.

The GFS tracks showery area NE tomorrow into the North Sea which is not the accepted wisdom according to the METO so to move on. Showery on Sunday before some transient HP moves in on Monday before the next system arrives on Wednesday, initially effecting the north but the declining front does travel south east. This leaves the UK in a showery airflow before the next system arrives on Friday. We are entering choppy waters here as Gaston has arrived on the scene although the GFS kindly dissipates it over Iberia. This is of course a long way from being resolved.

gfs_6hr_precip_eur3_15.pnggfs_6hr_precip_eur3_23.pnggfs_6hr_precip_eur3_32.png

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton
17 minutes ago, knocker said:

 

The GFS tracks showery area NE tomorrow into the North Sea which is not the accepted wisdom according to the METO so to move on. Showery on Sunday before some transient HP moves in on Monday before the next system arrives on Wednesday, initially effecting the north but the declining front does travel south east. This leaves the UK in a showery airflow before the next system arrives on Friday. We are entering choppy waters here as Gaston has arrived on the scene although the GFS kindly dissipates it over Iberia. This is of course a long way from being resolved.

gfs_6hr_precip_eur3_15.pnggfs_6hr_precip_eur3_23.pnggfs_6hr_precip_eur3_32.png

 

Has the upper air pattern changed in recent weeks K? We seem to be getting much more settled weather recently than previous to August:)

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
23 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Has the upper air pattern changed in recent weeks K? We seem to be getting much more settled weather recently than previous to August:)

We have had some settled weather this week Matthew, well most have, but I wouldn't say the near future is that settled although the south would appear to be remaining quite dry. You can see from the anomaly chart this morning that the pattern is quite flat with low pressure over the Pole, which has been a feature for a while, with a trough mid Atlantic which would indicate surface systems tracking NE portending the usual N/S split over the UK. So essentially the upper air pattern has become less amplified (in our neck of the woods)

 

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_35.png

Edited by knocker
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41 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

This rain band keeps moving, but if the Euro4 is right this morning (big if!), someone somewhere is going to have a very soggy BBQ tomorrow

16082800_2600.gif

Can't remember the last time I saw such a large variation across such a short period, in fact the closer the event gets the greater this disparity becomes across the models. GFS now pretty much kills any rain completely away from the far SE, whilst the Euro4 moves it up to N England and as you suggest gives some places an absolute pasting!

Edited by coldcomfort
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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
2 hours ago, coldcomfort said:

Can't remember the last time I saw such a large variation across such a short period, in fact the closer the event gets the greater this disparity becomes across the models. GFS now pretty much kills any rain completely away from the far SE, whilst the Euro4 moves it up to N England and as you suggest gives some places an absolute pasting!

Well the met office seems to be making more of this rain on Saturday than the most recent GFS run would suggest for my area anyway with a band of heavy and persistent rain developing from mid afternoon lasting into Sunday , wonder who'll be nearer the mark

edit - just looked at the GFS and that has the rain barely clipping the Kent coast , I thought models near this time frame would be essentially similar

Edited by Gordon Webb
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Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

Big difference from the gfs to the euro4 this morning. If the euro4 proves correct then from the midlands northwards upto Yorkshire is in for a real soaking this weekend. Not ideal for Leeds festival I must say. 

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

... and now it's mainly in the North Sea

16082800_2606.gif

Miserably cold under the rain ... still hot in the SE

16082718_2606.gif

... though the GFS paints a very different story

27-777UK.GIF?26-6

whilst our friends at ARGEPE don't think we'll get much at all  - hot in the SE, and I imagine 21s/22s will feel nice in the north and west if the sun comes out

arpegeuk-25-29-0.png?26-12   arpegeuk-31-36-0.png?26-13

 

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

Not sure what the double warm front indicates across Southern England. I would think still at this stage there is some uncertainty about the exact position of the boundary between the very warm moist air mass and the Pm with further north. The UKMO probabaly looking at high rainfall totals in some places. Maybe the forward position of the warm front on the fax charts indicates its Northern extent or zone of heaviest rainfall. Could be through the heart of England, further North or South. They should be able to firm up later today.

 C

20160826.0509.PPVG89.png

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

ECM looks dry warm and settled in the main in the reliable timeframe.GEFS 12z look dry, and settled out into lala land this evening so the lovely August for the south looks primed to continue for the forseeable, of course there may be the odd blip, but all in all, looks pretty good !

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm721.html

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961.html

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.html

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.html

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Some rain / showers around at the end of the week but some drier spells as well and temps generally around average for the time of year maybe above average at times in the SE

Recm1681.gifRecm1921.gifRecm2161.gifRecm2401.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

ECM looks dry warm and settled in the main in the reliable timeframe.GEFS 12z look dry, and settled out into lala land this evening so the lovely August for the south looks primed to continue for the forseeable, of course there may be the odd blip, but all in all, looks pretty good !

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm721.html

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961.html

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.html

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.html

Looks good to me - anything to postpone the onset of autumn proper!

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