Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016

[knocker]

9 minutes ago, coldcomfort said:

And what odds do you place on that chart being similar at 7.20pm this evening Knocker.....I will say 20-30% and I suspect even that will be optimistic.

Whether it verifies is of course unlikely but I only entered into this rather ridiculous discussion because I think some were misrepresenting what the ecm is actually saying. not whether it will verify or not.

[Man With Beard]

17 minutes ago, knocker said:

Fine but whether the ecm is under cooking the max temps is irrelevant and unknowable at this stage. If you are not actually stating what the ecm is forecasting but using your own interpretation then that's fine providing you clearly state this. I had the distinct impression from your post that you were using the ecm charts that you posted. And the ecm surface chart does not agree with your interpretation.

Fair enough Knocker. To be honest I thought we'd collectively set a precedent on here of interpreting maximums on the basis of other charts - we have to do it for the GFS all the time, for instance today at 1pm (just T6):

compared to what's actually happening:

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/current?LANG=en&CONT=euro&LAND=UK&REGION=0003&SORT=3&UD=0&INT=06&TYP=temperatursyn&ART=kartealle&RUBRIK=akt&DATE=1471953600&CEL=C&SI=mph 

not just London, even Yeovil already above 28C, North Devon 26C!

but all the same I could have made it clear it was my own personal interpretation.

[coldcomfort]

8 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

 

 

I tend to agree with most of this , the only really hot weather after today will be mainly in the SE , not saying the weather will be terrible elsewhere

Indeed, I never suggested terrible, what I said was very average.... which in late August is generally pretty decent or at least usable.

Come 7.20 this evening the ECM will have shunted much of Saturdays heat further towards the east imo, but even if as GFS suggests 850's are in the range 15-19c across the SE, more in the way of cloud and even some thundery rain will supress maxima by several degrees imo. Elsewhere 16-23c looks a fair shout, with 16-22c not far off he mark for many on Sun. How that isn't 'very average' is a mystery to me! 

[Paul]

A bunch of very off topic, and argumentative posts removed, this is the model thread, so can we actually discuss the model output rather than whining about people having a slant towards the weather they're likely to experience, in their posts.

And for a particular someone who has rejoined having been banned more than once (you know who you are), if you're all set on creating the same hassles as before, then you're going to end up with the same outcome..

[Kentspur]

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=daily;type=maxt

So GFS massively undercooked today's temperatures then- looks like a case of how high into the 30s will it go today in the south and east- let's hope the vitamin d lacking northerners get some luck too soon!

[Gordon Webb]

3 hours ago, coldcomfort said:

Indeed, I never suggested terrible, what I said was very average.... which in late August is generally pretty decent or at least usable.

Come 7.20 this evening the ECM will have shunted much of Saturdays heat further towards the east imo, but even if as GFS suggests 850's are in the range 15-19c across the SE, more in the way of cloud and even some thundery rain will supress maxima by several degrees imo. Elsewhere 16-23c looks a fair shout, with 16-22c not far off he mark for many on Sun. How that isn't 'very average' is a mystery to me! 

actually the word terrible was my own choice of word didn't mean to suggest you said it would be terrible , perhaps I should read posts more carefully before I quote and reply

yes looks average for most places except the SE which in next days you could fry an egg on car bonnet if you could find one clean enough

[Man With Beard]

4 hours ago, knocker said:

19 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

yes looks average for most places except the SE which in next days you could fry an egg on car bonnet if you could find one clean enough

 

 

 

 

GFS a little more of a "south of the M4" job at the weekend but UKMO is very toasty for a lot of the UK. Oh it really is!!

[Scorcher]

3 hours ago, Kentspur said:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=daily;type=maxt

So GFS massively undercooked today's temperatures then- looks like a case of how high into the 30s will it go today in the south and east- let's hope the vitamin d lacking northerners get some luck too soon!

You referring to Scotland there? Glorious in Manchester today...27C so not too shabby

[Paceyboy]

According to the models, anywhere south east of line from the Bristol channel to the Humber should be seeing mid to high 20s tomorrow even with varying cloud cover.

 Can anyone tell me why the BBC and MO are so stoic with highs of only 20-23c across the Midlands tomorrow? I'm not sure I agree!!!

I lost my mind there and forgot for a second that weather that is happening outside the south east  isn't worth the time for the media. Sorry, brain working properly now :-)

 

Edited August 23, 2016 by Paceyboy

[Captain Shortwave]

7 minutes ago, Paceyboy said:

According to the models, anywhere south east of line from the Bristol channel to the Humber should be seeing mid to high 20s tomorrow even with varying cloud cover.

 Can anyone tell me why the BBC and MO are so stoic with highs of only 20-23c across the Midlands tomorrow? I'm not sure I agree!!!

Different models are forecasting different cloud amounts, given that the Euro4 is the primary source of data, it's very pessimistic cloud cover forecasts limit temperatures tomorrow to around 30C in the south east 

On the other hand other models suggest less cloud and with more sunshine deliver much higher temperatures across England and Wales.

Mid to high twenties from Cardiff up to parts of Yorkshire and the north Midlands, low thirties across the south east.

So it will come down to how active this front is and hence how much cloud and potential rain or showers there are. This front will continue to cause a headache for forecasters throughout the next few days, in fact possibly until late Sunday as it develops waves across the UK, with areas south of this becoming hot and areas north being cooler and fresher. There is of course the risk of thunderstorms developing along this boundary.

[cheese]

1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

You referring to Scotland there? Glorious in Manchester today...27C so not too shabby

Think it will be quite nice tomorrow as well if there's a decent amount of sunshine, could still reach mid 20s in Leeds and Manchester. 

[Captain Shortwave]

   

Well the ECM throws this solution out for Saturday again. Can the front clear far enough north to allow the sun to come out in the south, with those 850s we could easily see temperatures push up towards 30C again. The weather for the upcoming bank holiday looks far from resolved. This solution is very similar to the arpege output for the same time, the UKMO is slightly flatter and the GFS flatter still.

 

[Nouska]

The AROME forecasting some 34C hot spots in the SE tomorrow afternoon.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/aromezoom.php

The ARPEGE take on Saturday afternoon - 2metre temps and nebulosity for same time frame (5pm local).

   

Edit for @Djdazzle - think you are seeing the 44C on the temperature scale - it is in blue.

There's a reason the north of France is on heatwave alert.

Edited August 23, 2016 by Nouska

[Djdazzle]

6 minutes ago, Nouska said:

The AROME forecasting some 34C hot spots in the SE tomorrow afternoon.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/aromezoom.php

The ARPEGE take on Saturday afternoon - 2metre temps and nebulosity for same time frame (5pm local).

   

Showing 44C not far across the Channel! Not to be trusted!

[Summer Sun]

 

It doesn't look too bad as we end summer and move into Autumn on tonight's ECM with the bulk of any rain in the far north

 

[northwestsnow]

Decent ECM this evening with warm and generally dry the main theme moving forwards, some very useable weather

[seaside 60]

25 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Showing 44C not far across the Channel! Not to be trusted!

That 44c is the temp on the scale of colours you will also see 46 underneath it.

[Djdazzle]

6 minutes ago, seaside 60 said:

That 44c is the temp on the scale of colours you will also see 46 underneath it.

Ah thanks, that makes more sense!

[seaside 60]

Even so it is showing 39c, which is impressive that far north in France.

Its not that far south of the channel.

[Bristawl Si]

6 hours ago, coldcomfort said:

Indeed, I never suggested terrible, what I said was very average.... which in late August is generally pretty decent or at least usable.

Come 7.20 this evening the ECM will have shunted much of Saturdays heat further towards the east imo, but even if as GFS suggests 850's are in the range 15-19c across the SE, more in the way of cloud and even some thundery rain will supress maxima by several degrees imo. Elsewhere 16-23c looks a fair shout, with 16-22c not far off he mark for many on Sun. How that isn't 'very average' is a mystery to me! 

27c and Sunny is "Very average" for 23rd August? Is it?

I'd class that as v warm for down here in late Summer; in fact it's hot and well above average.

[knocker]

The ecm this evening sticking to the weekend

Friday 12z sees a small HP cell over the UK with the unstable low still over Iberia and the Atlantic low away to the west. So dry and temps a little above average apart from N. Ireland and Scotland.

Winding on 24 hours and the Iberian low has tracked north bringing thundery outbreaks to the UK, mainly in the west and north, and at the same time merges with low to the west. The warmer temps confined to SE of a line Bristol to London,

The low pressure hangs around, centred over Scotland bringing a fair bit of rain there but showery elswhere, until 18z Sunday before moving east into the North Sea and allowing a ridge to build on Monday. Temps around average on Sunday.

[Man With Beard]

Euro4 shifts all the heat out of the way by Thursday with full cloud cover

     

... but it's back by Saturday according to the ECM, which continues to give stunning conditions for that day to the south. What is the all-time Bank Holiday record, anyone? Wet further north though

    

next week might be hurricane watch (in the Atlantic rather than here)

   

[TomDav]

GFS showing poss ex-hurricane swinging to north of UK, could be a turbulent time for the models in the longer range

[knocker]

Today

The heat more restricted than yesterday to East Anglia and the far south east where it could reach the low thirties. Elsewhere pleasant enough with perhaps more cloud with some thundery showers spreading from the south later in the day.

The GFS this morning

Thursday sees the formation of a shallow low in the general area of low pressure stretching NE from Iberia accompanied by an area of thundery showers tracking north across the UK. This passes quickly through en route to Scandinavia and phases in with the Atlantic low briefly leaving a high cell over the UK on Friday with some drier weather.

It is but brief as a new area of instability tracks NE on Saturday bringing more thundery rain to the south and at the same time this phases in with a new low that has formed to the west. The thundery area quickly tracks east but the low to west does the same bringing outbreaks of showers over Sunday and Monday before a transitional ridge nudges in from the west.

Some hot temps midweek but very much restricted to the south/south east and East Anglia and cooler in general over the weekend.

The BH weather still has to be nailed down.

Edited August 24, 2016 by knocker

[Matthew.]

So the start of the long weekend:

Another lovely day to look forward too. In my book this August is turning into the best month this year