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Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016


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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
4 hours ago, markyo said:

Still not fully convinced about the extent of the heat,max I suspect will be 2 days and the variation of temps,well give it until more models give a more aligned view on that,very much all to play for,should be interesting to see how the models cope with this spell.

 

I think you should change the word 'suspect' to hope in your case! While that trough stays to the west it's going to be very warm to hot I'm afraid.

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Basically intresting weather,cold,windy you name it
  • Location: sheffield
18 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

 

I think you should change the word 'suspect' to hope in your case! While that trough stays to the west it's going to be very warm to hot I'm afraid.

I'm may have to bow to your superior knowledge in the very near future ,hope may be right and a forlorn one at that!

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkheaton, Huddersfield
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny days and balmy evenings.
  • Location: Kirkheaton, Huddersfield
2 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

Don't forget the models are not modelling the weather just for the UK but the whole globe..we are just a very small area so even if the models are 1% inaccurate anywhere this has a huge implication on the weather predicted and the actual weather observed

It never dawned on me, I just presumed there'd be a programme for the North Atlantic/Euro region. 

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Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City

12z trundling out now, and its looking like a hot Wednesday and Thursday for much of England and Wales. Similar so far to 06z, albeit the heat-low south of Britain seems to be pegged back this time.

EDIT - Overall, a better run for WAA especially for central and southern England. 

Edited by PersianPaladin
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

What an excellent run from the GFS- on this run the heat seems to intensify towards the weekend:

GFSOPEU12_174_2.png

Some dream charts here for heat lovers. Perhaps more thundery potential as well towards the weekend going by this run?

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Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
11 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

What an excellent run from the GFS- on this run the heat seems to intensify towards the weekend:

GFSOPEU12_174_2.png

Some dream charts here for heat lovers. Perhaps more thundery potential as well towards the weekend going by this run?

I honestly thought it was doing the usual "way of the pear" when I started seeing that Low and high pressure both trying to force eastwards. Until literally the heat is extended on this run because of lowering heights pushing up from Iberia. Shame it is several days away!!!

 

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

Th

11 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

What an excellent run from the GFS- on this run the heat seems to intensify towards the weekend:

GFSOPEU12_174_2.png

Some dream charts here for heat lovers. Perhaps more thundery potential as well towards the weekend going by this run?

Shows how much an airmass can have an impact on temperatures. The sun intensity for the date that chart is slightly less than that at the end of April, yet that chart could produce 30C and the airmass at the end of April this year produced low level snow.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
10 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Th

Shows how much an airmass can have an impact on temperatures. The sun intensity for the date that chart is slightly less than that at the end of April, yet that chart could produce 30C and the airmass at the end of April this year produced low level snow.

It's like I was saying to someone the other day on here, the airmass is everything- the sun intensity is secondary. The very late 2011 spell showed that. And also exceeding 23C on Halloween in 2014 with very weak sun at that point.

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Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton

Pleasant warm days at first gradually with the southerly airstream intensifying. For those who prefer(myself included) an easterly bringing pleasant days, cooler nights the first half of the weak looks favourable. For extreme heat lovers the second half looks better.:unknw:

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Now this is a novel idea

Have two upper lows in a negatively tilted trough area and drag the hot plume a little further west and north.:shok:

gfs_z500a_natl_30.pnggfs_t850_nh_natl_30.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

The most interesting thing for me in the 12z GFS is how much further west it takes the Atlantic hurricane in the 200+ hours range. The previous runs had it flirting with the east coast of the USA but mainly staying as a fish while this run takes it over Southern Florida and into the Caribbean.

Karyo

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Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon
4 hours ago, Sky Full said:

Is it my imagination, or do the models have a tendency to regularly predict desirable seasonal weather (cold snowy spells in Winter, hot sunny spells in Summer etc), only to have to downgrade when the real weather turns out to be average, and sometimes the opposite, of what was predicted?  It seems to me that actual spells of exceptional weather are mostly not picked up more than about three days ahead but they are wrongly predicted 6 to 10 days ahead with disappointing frequency.  

I would have expected the computer programs which power the models to suppress extremes and to favour 'average' conditions especially in the medium to longer range rather than continuing to throw up exceptional synoptics which then fail to come about, at least to the degree to which they are initially forecast.  Don't get me wrong, I'm not a weather pessimist (at least I dont think so!) but there has been a lot of talk on here this summer of temperatures getting into the mid 30s at times, only encouraged by what the models were showing, but they simply haven't materialised.  In fact, only Heathrow Airport has recorded three days above 30c this year, with only one day being the dismal record for almost anywhere else and these only in the south and south-east (unless someone can correct me here?).  In fact, even temperatures above 25c have been notably rare this year but they have been regularly forecast on all the models.  

What this leads me to believe is that the chance of the weather turning 'hot' next week as currently predicted by the models is very much against the trend this year, but I hope to Murgatroyd I am wrong!


Yes, it has seemed they have often teased us this summer.

However I think there is also another factor, in that the better runs tend to get piked up on and commented more, or even examined more (me included), even if there's not intended to be any bias, I suspect people can often get an impression of more agreement about noteworthy conditions than there actually is.

There are 20 ECM runs, and 64 GFS runs for any particular day (obviously some will be in the very close time frame so generally verify, and others way out in FI, though they are still commented on sometimes). Therefore, usually some of the runs are hotter/more noteworthy than what actually verifies.

The UKMO for example isn't very appealing at T+144 tonight for those wanting hot weather
UW144-21.GIF?19-18

Though we await the ECM and indeed this weekends output.

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ECM and UKMO again pretty much on the same page in the 120-144hr range, leaving GFS once more ploughing something of a lone furrow, so expect it to fall in line sometime across the next 2-4 runs. It's looking very much like a repeat performance of what we saw with the plume that never was early this week, but it's a bit of a mystery why GFS seems to be struggling so much at this range compared to the other big two. On a positive note many central and eastern parts of England should again see a couple of days in the mid, locally high 20's next week, but for the vast majority of the UK it's shaping up to be another 'close but not close enough' event imo. 

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Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon
1 hour ago, PersianPaladin said:

UKMO tends to perform poorly at its maximum-range. Albeit we are still on a knife-edge situation regardless.

It does seem that way sometimes but I think the verification stats show it above the GFS at day 6, or at least did the last time I saw them.

ECM is a bit disappointing for me too.. 15C uppers never even get to my location, then are pushed away by Friday. Although that low then just fills to the west so remaining warm-very warm but that's FI.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Some might be tempted to call this a downgrade from the ECM, but this is perhaps its first run in a while that sits close to the middle of its ensemble pack (SW excepted!). As expected, further south than the GFS.

ECM0-120.GIF?19-0  ECM0-144.GIF?19-0  EDM0-144.GIF?19-12  vs GFS  gens-21-0-132.png

I would trust the ECM a little more given the set-up, as I think the ECM op is the king of the cut-off Atlantic trough in the T96-T144 period - (though the years on Netweather have taught us: "never discount the GFS"!!)

I'm really fascinated at how, yet again, the ECM gets the pattern to kind of reverse for the weekend! Not the same heat in place so not as spectacular as yesterday's runs, but would still be a fairly hot import and possibly thundery. I just can't buy it though, it looks too odd, I feel it is once again based on an over-optimistic idea of how heights will develop in the north Atlantic between T168 and T216, which causes the low to get cut-off. Thoughts anyone?

ECM1-168.GIF?19-0  ECM1-192.GIF?19-0  ECM1-216.GIF?19-0  ECM1-240.GIF?19-0

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Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
2 hours ago, Evening thunder said:

However I think there is also another factor, in that the better runs tend to get piked up on and commented more, or even examined more (me included), even if there's not intended to be any bias, I suspect people can often get an impression of more agreement about noteworthy conditions than there actually is.

There are 20 ECM runs, and 64 GFS runs for any particular day (obviously some will be in the very close time frame so generally verify, and others way out in FI, though they are still commented on sometimes). Therefore, usually some of the runs are hotter/more noteworthy than what actually verifies.

You make a very good point - it IS the exceptional runs which get discussed but there are likely to be many unexceptional / average runs on each model run every day.  I withdraw my critiscism of the models immediately! 

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Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester

18z is a backtrack on next weeks heat, the low out to the west nudges in and squeezes the heat into the East, so rather than a N/S divide its more of a E/W divide - Blackpool at just 19c wheres in Great Yarmouth its 30c. I think we're seeing the same typical model scenario as last week.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
1 minute ago, 40*C said:

18z is a backtrack on next weeks heat, the low out to the west nudges in and squeezes the heat into the East, so rather than a N/S divide its more of a E/W divide - Blackpool at just 19c wheres in Great Yarmouth its 30c. I think we're seeing the same typical model scenario as last week.

Aye fortunately looking like up here we may not be afflicted by the level of heat that MAY occur further S and E. Though one does get the impression the core of the heat is being shifted ever further E with each model run now. 30C may still be breached somewhere in the SE though as 20C uppers are still shown to graze the far SE on the GFS 18z.

Will have to see how this pans out over the next couple of days of modelling. 

Further into FI on the 18z sees some eye watering N blocking take hold with Greenland high and associated deep troughing to our NE.....would like to see that scenario repeat in December!

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5 hours ago, 40*C said:

18z is a backtrack on next weeks heat, the low out to the west nudges in and squeezes the heat into the East, so rather than a N/S divide its more of a E/W divide - Blackpool at just 19c wheres in Great Yarmouth its 30c. I think we're seeing the same typical model scenario as last week.

Indeed, it didn't take long did it, with the 00 run franking the 18 and demonstrating another all too predictable climb down from GFS.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Today.

The depression over S. Ireland travels NE into the North sea and slowly fills. Some quite strong winds on it's southern flank effecting the south and west and some very squally showers.

accumprecip_d02_49.pngsfcgust_d02_31.png

the GFS this morning.

The main Atlantic depression tracks NNE to become stationary south of Iceland. Small perturbations in it's southern circulation track NE to effect Scotland on Monday but with HP to the SE England tends to be in a southerly drift with an unstable slack low pressure area lurking over Iberia. This drifts north by Wednesday and Thursday sees thundery outbreaks effecting the west and north of England and Scotland. Subsequently to this the Azores HP ridges in from the south west which more or less remains in situ for the weekend. The 'hot' temps are confined to an area south east of a line Humber to Dorset Tues -Thurs (perhaps slightly more widespread on Tues) and could reach 32C in places.

gfs_6hr_precip_eur3_15.pnggfs_6hr_precip_eur3_23.pnggfs_6hr_precip_eur3_29.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Netw-MR Model take on the Plume Wed/Thursday, Temps touching 31/32c in the South with some high cape levels which could lead to some of Steve's 'crackerjack' thunderstorms.. 

c.pnga.pngb.png

Edited by Polar Maritime
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