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Model Output Discussions 12z 03/05/2016


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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

One of the straightest easterlies I've ever seen modelled by GEM. Imagine if this was January!! 

image.png

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Basically intresting weather,cold,windy you name it
  • Location: sheffield
23 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

GFS shows things heating up next week about time we had charts like below showing for August instead of the miserable ones we've become use to over the past decade or so

ukmaxtemp.pngukmaxtemp.pngukmaxtemp.pngukmaxtemp.pngukmaxtemp.pngukmaxtemp.png

EDIT

ECM is another cracker

Recm1922.gif

:)

Little far out to be really a positive as that for heat lovers,but a good indicator,may be something in it though...and thats me who jolly wishes that doesn't come off! Not a lover of those temps but i know so many are,give it 48hr and i'm sure we'll see the firming up across the models.

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Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
34 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

One of the straightest easterlies I've ever seen modelled by GEM. Imagine if this was January!! 

image.png

 

A direct easterly is what some of the charts were previously showing for the culmination of this week. In other words, the much-hyped "heat-wave" by Piers Corbyn and co. going "t*ts up!" in a novel way. Mind you, that chart is beautiful. Just wrong time of the year.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Promising signs from today's charts if you like very warm dry weather. After this weekend's unsettled phase - very annoying timing... we continue to maintain an amplified flow with the trough becoming unstuck to our west allowing warm air advection to penetrate through the country from the south - charts a little reminscent of the very short warm blip around 19 July, but unlike then the trough is shown to be a weaker and more westwards positioned affair, which would deliver a longer spell of very warm dry conditions - how warm remains the question, but low 30's in some favoured southern spots a distinct possibility, given the continent is at is warmest at this time of year, and with the added effect of SST values nearing there warmest values of the year combined with ground temps being there warmest, and the ground being very dry.. Late August heat has been a rarity for a long time.

Longer term - not sure we will maintain the warm dry theme through the bank holiday, one very plausible outcome would be the trough to fizzle in situ or sink further south allowing heights to build to the north and north west, as the jetstream is forced under the ridge, the outcome would be a much cooler airstream. In amplified set ups there is always a fine line between very warm and something much cooler - southerlies can often be replaced by northerlies very quickly and vice versa - we often see such flips in spring, rather than late summer mind..

 

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

ECM ensembles London - pretty hot but still not the same appetite for that 20C line as the GEFS had on the 12Z

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/ecmwf/graphe_ens3.php?mode=0&x=306&y=141&run=12&ville=Londres&runpara=0

I'm expecting the ECM op to lead the way at around T120/T144, so I think "hot" is guaranteed but until the 90F runs appear within T144, these really hit runs cannot be called the likely outcome just yet.

Edited by Man With Beard
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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

The GFS this morning continues the 'Hot' theme towards the middle of next week..

a.pngb.pngc.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Today

Fronts associated with the depression to the west track NE to bring rain to most parts. Temps a tad academic but depressed compared to of late.

accumprecip_d02_49.png1hourprecip_d02_25.pngtemperature_d02_31.png

The GFS this morning.

The aforementioned depression track slowly NE and fills to be east of Aberdeen 1010mb by 18z Sunday having brought wet, showery and windy conditions to most at some point during the weekend.

Fronts associated with the main depression south of Iceland quickly travel north east on Monday bringing more rain mainly to the north. By Wednesday the conditions are in place for WAA to infiltrate most of England and bring some very warm temps with HP having built to the east and the influence of the Atlantic low pressure spreading south.

These conditions with some very warm temps last until and including Friday but the breakdown begins then with thundery low pressure area travelling north from Spain overnight Thursday effecting the western half of the UK. This of course brings the Bank Holiday into play with zonal mobility back into play, Best left for the moment I think.

gfs_6hr_precip_eur3_12.pnggfs_6hr_precip_eur3_23.pnggfs_6hr_precip_eur3_30.png

gfs_z500a_natl_38.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

A little extra definition to proceedings this morning - the ECM drops that rather bizarre building-back of heat from the continent next Friday/Saturday and instead the heat is on its way out as the Atlantic trough finally swings into the UK. It still keeps the hottest air over the channel, though it will still be hot over the UK with uppers of 18C. I would back the ECM over the GFS on this as we've seen all summer the GFS having heights a little too far North. 

So I think something like this for next week. Most of England and Wales pretty much fine all week (maybe Monday morning clearing up), and temps rising a couple of degrees each day, from about 26C on Monday up to a peak of 32C/33C on Thursday (maybe higher IF the GFS) is right, and a thundery breakdown on the Friday with temps dependent in timing issues. Further north/far west, improving as the week goes on with mid-20s all the way into central Scotland by later in the week. 

Lovely!

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
1 hour ago, knocker said:

Today

Fronts associated with the depression to the west track NE to bring rain to most parts. Temps a tad academic but depressed compared to of late.

accumprecip_d02_49.png1hourprecip_d02_25.pngtemperature_d02_31.png

The GFS this morning.

The aforementioned depression track slowly NE and fills to be east of Aberdeen 1010mb by 18z Sunday having brought wet, showery and windy conditions to most at some point during the weekend.

Fronts associated with the main depression south of Iceland quickly travel north east on Monday bringing more rain mainly to the north. By Wednesday the conditions are in place for WAA to infiltrate most of England and bring some very warm temps with HP having built to the east and the influence of the Atlantic low pressure spreading south.

These conditions with some very warm temps last until and including Friday but the breakdown begins then with thundery low pressure area travelling north from Spain overnight Thursday effecting the western half of the UK. This of course brings the Bank Holiday into play with zonal mobility back into play, Best left for the moment I think.

gfs_6hr_precip_eur3_12.pnggfs_6hr_precip_eur3_23.pnggfs_6hr_precip_eur3_30.png

gfs_z500a_natl_38.png

zonal mobility im not sure i see it as zonal mobility i see it as thundery low moving up the west of the uk with more of a nw se split.

i just feel zonal means atlantic on slaught with low after low moving west to east or even northwest to southeast or southwest to northeast.

but i agree bit far out to have high confidence.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ecm has the breakdown starting a tad earlier than the GFS early Thursday in the west. Still keeping very warm temps further east but by Friday the low to mid twenties confined to East Anglia.

ecm_t850_uv_natl_9.png

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
1 hour ago, MR EXTREMES said:

zonal mobility im not sure i see it as zonal mobility i see it as thundery low moving up the west of the uk with more of a nw se split.

i just feel zonal means atlantic on slaught with low after low moving west to east or even northwest to southeast or southwest to northeast.

but i agree bit far out to have high confidence.

Yes there is a thundery low moving north being signalled. Post this a return to zonal mobility. All I meant by this is the highly amplified upper pattern bringing abou the WAA de-amplifies, for want of a better word, and the pattern starts moving east bringing the trough more into play and veering the upper winds and the meridional jet becomes zonal thus opening the door for systems tracking NE. I wasn't intending to suggest an Atlantic onslaught so apologies if that is how it came across.

gfs_uv250_natl_40.png

Edited by knocker
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Better than many recent August yes, but next weeks warm up looks like being another fairly brief affair according to UKMO/ECM, and one which is again largely confined to England, particularly central and eastern areas. GFS looks a very optimistic interpretation of things in holding off the breakdown until next weekend, so whilst it might well pan out correct I expect it will drift more towards ECM once again across the next 24-48hrs. Probably wise not to forget just how bullish it was about the last plume and it's 22-23c 850's...:wallbash:

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

The ECM mean isn't a million miles from the op, but the breakdown is a little slower.

EDM0-168.GIF?19-12

The 10C uppers line gets into Scotland for several days during the week, so I think most northern areas will do fairly well. 

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Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
28 minutes ago, coldcomfort said:

Better than many recent August yes, but next weeks warm up looks like being another fairly brief affair according to UKMO/ECM, and one which is again largely confined to England, particularly central and eastern areas. GFS looks a very optimistic interpretation of things in holding off the breakdown until next weekend, so whilst it might well pan out correct I expect it will drift more towards ECM once again across the next 24-48hrs. Probably wise not to forget just how bullish it was about the last plume and it's 22-23c 850's...:wallbash:

When looking at the past few runs it seems initially dependent on the positioning of that second Atlantic Low that develops and sits to our West/NW. It goes to show how knife edge it is really, because small changes have resulted in some runs showing extended heat for more of the UK, whereas others have shown the Low to be slightly further East, resulting in fresher air pushing towards the UK more quickly.

Edited by Chris K
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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Morning all :)

Certainly no "done deal" regarding a push of heat from the south toward the end of next week. To be fair to heat fans, the GFS 00Z Ensembles universally show the 20c 850HPA line over the British Isles (to varying extents) at T+144 but to counter that the majority of members push the heat away from T+168 so it's another hot snap IF it happens.

Neither ECM nor GEM are anywhere near as bullish with regard to heat - the GEM Ensembles at the same time frame as the GFS have hardly any bringing the 20c 850 HPA across the south of the British Isles and while a couple of the members simply build the heat later, the overwhelming majority simply don't bring the heat up here.

I think we may need to get through the weekend and have a look at the 00Z Monday output before we get some clarity.

At this stage, we can call a warming trend possibly peaking on Thursday before fresher cooler air comes in on Friday clearing through Great Yarmouth late Friday.

There is some optimism beyond that as it seems deepening LP taking a more northerly track will encourage a renewed build of HP across southern areas.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Basically intresting weather,cold,windy you name it
  • Location: sheffield

Still not fully convinced about the extent of the heat,max I suspect will be 2 days and the variation of temps,well give it until more models give a more aligned view on that,very much all to play for,should be interesting to see how the models cope with this spell.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
54 minutes ago, markyo said:

Still not fully convinced about the extent of the heat,max I suspect will be 2 days and the variation of temps,well give it until more models give a more aligned view on that,very much all to play for,should be interesting to see how the models cope with this spell.

ECM latest ensembles extending the heat if anything, and a couple of degrees up on yesterday's

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

As many upgrade as downgrade possibilities on the GEFS ensembles

graphe3_1000_306_141___Londres.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl

Is it my imagination, or do the models have a tendency to regularly predict desirable seasonal weather (cold snowy spells in Winter, hot sunny spells in Summer etc), only to have to downgrade when the real weather turns out to be average, and sometimes the opposite, of what was predicted?  It seems to me that actual spells of exceptional weather are mostly not picked up more than about three days ahead but they are wrongly predicted 6 to 10 days ahead with disappointing frequency.  

I would have expected the computer programs which power the models to suppress extremes and to favour 'average' conditions especially in the medium to longer range rather than continuing to throw up exceptional synoptics which then fail to come about, at least to the degree to which they are initially forecast.  Don't get me wrong, I'm not a weather pessimist (at least I dont think so!) but there has been a lot of talk on here this summer of temperatures getting into the mid 30s at times, only encouraged by what the models were showing, but they simply haven't materialised.  In fact, only Heathrow Airport has recorded three days above 30c this year, with only one day being the dismal record for almost anywhere else and these only in the south and south-east (unless someone can correct me here?).  In fact, even temperatures above 25c have been notably rare this year but they have been regularly forecast on all the models.  

What this leads me to believe is that the chance of the weather turning 'hot' next week as currently predicted by the models is very much against the trend this year, but I hope to Murgatroyd I am wrong!

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

Don't forget the models are not modelling the weather just for the UK but the whole globe..we are just a very small area so even if the models are 1% inaccurate anywhere this has a huge implication on the weather predicted and the actual weather observed

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

And to remember in situations such as being postulated for next week just a small change in the pattern can impact the max temps such as the hot plume being nudged further south and east. It takes very little which is why it's wise not to jump on board too soon.

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